CN105225010A - A kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability, comprising: the basic change curve determining transformer equipment failure rate; Piecewise fitting is carried out to the basic change curve of failure rate, tries to achieve the parameter of the basic change curve of failure rate; Determine the failure rate change curve of equipment after maintenance; The impact of consideration equipment health status, revises the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate, obtains the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment; The time limit and current remaining life-span entire life of equipment is determined respectively according to the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment.Beneficial effect of the present invention: bonding apparatus current operating state, health status and maintenance situation are revised equipment failure rate curve, compared with traditional tub curve failure rate, accuracy is higher.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power transmission and transforming equipment running technology field, particularly relate to a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability.
Background technology
At present, the method for high-power transformer assessment equipment life mainly contains following several:
(1) insulation ag(e)ing degree analyzing: by detecting other related substances content in furfural in dissolved gases in oil, oil and oil and asking for the degree of polymerization, and then insulation paper polymerization degree is obtained to the degree of polymerization weighted calculation that each aging characteristics of transformer is asked for, Transformer Insulation Aging degree is assessed, for assessment equipment life provides foundation with this.
(2) adaptive forecasting method of degraded data modeling: introduced the parameter adaptive update method based on EM algorithm on the exponential random degradation model basis of equipment residual life, all parameters of Life Prediction Model all can be constantly updated with the accumulation of equipment real time data, thus the result predicted more can reflect the practical operation situation of equipment, reaches the object reducing uncertainty in traffic.
(3) based on the appraisal procedure of GRNN neural network theory data mining technology: by setting up forecast model equipment life based on GRNN neural network, by data based on the test sample book of gathered many groups paper oil insulation transformer, application forecast model of building carries out life prediction assessment to corresponding transformer.
(4) the theoretical transformer life appraisal procedure with improving Markov method based on Random-fuzzy: from transformer performance fade characteristics and health index characteristic, adopt transformer life assessment three-level system, give transformer health index computing method over the years.Based on the health index over the years of transformer, on the basis of traditional Markov prediction model, establish the Markov prediction model of improvement.
Above-mentioned four kinds of technical methods are all establish assessment models to carry out life appraisal prediction to transformer equipment, but be realized by intelligent algorithm mostly, comparatively large, higher to the accuracy requirement of sample data to physical device sample data quantity demand, prediction accuracy affects comparatively large by sample data, computing velocity is slower.Meanwhile, above-mentioned several method all have ignored equipment and runs the factor such as importance degree and failure rate change to the impact of life appraisal, and the reliability be in operation to equipment, maintenance situation are not all considered.
Summary of the invention
Object of the present invention is exactly to solve the problem, propose a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability, the method has considered the impact of the factors such as equipment failure rate, equipment health status, maintenance situation, qualitative assessment is carried out to equipment, thus accurately grasp running state of transformer, improve accuracy and the practicality of assessment equipment life, for maintenance decision provides foundation.
To achieve these goals, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
Based on a transformer equipment lifetime estimation method for reliability, comprise the following steps:
(1) adopt Weibull Function to carry out matching to transformer fault rate curve, determine the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate;
(2) according to the historical statistical data of transformer equipment, piecewise fitting is carried out to the basic change curve of failure rate, tries to achieve the parameter of the basic change curve of failure rate;
(3) transformer equipment maintenance be divided into continuation operation, overhaul, light maintenance and upgrade four kinds of maintenance modes, according to the reality maintenance situation calculating transformer equipment equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit, determining the failure rate change curve of equipment after maintenance;
(4) according to the relation of transformer equipment equivalence actual enlistment age with the name enlistment age, consider the impact of equipment health status, the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate is revised, obtains the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment;
(5) transformer equipment failure rate threshold values λ is set
end, the time limit and current remaining life-span entire life of equipment is determined respectively according to the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment.
In described step (1), the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate is determined by two parameters:
Form parameter m, for characterizing the shape of distribution curve;
Scale parameter η, for characterizing coordinate scale;
As m<1, failure rate is on a declining curve; During m=1, failure rate is constant; During m>1, failure rate is in rising trend.
In described step (2), run the time limit according to equipment and transformer equipment failure rate is divided into initial failure stage, random failure stage and wear-out fault stage with change working time; According to the historical statistical data of transformer equipment, piecewise fitting is carried out to the basic change curve of failure rate, try to achieve form parameter m and the scale parameter η of each failure phase.
In described step (3), suppose that transformer runs to t
nin the stage, need to carry out repair based on condition of component to transformer;
By the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of equipment after transformer overhaul
dvalue is defined as a piecewise function, and described piecewise function runs the time limit by equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit y according to transformer
dvalue be divided into three sections;
The equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of transformer first time, second time overhaul
dobtain by described piecewise function, the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of each overhaul afterwards
dbe the h% of last overhaul equivalence enlistment age rollback year limit value, wherein, h is setting value, h<1.
In described step (3), suppose that transformer runs to t
nin the stage, need to carry out repair based on condition of component to transformer;
The equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of transformer light maintenance
xbe set as 1 year.
In described step (4), owing to there is maintenance, bad condition and loading condition to the impact of transformer fault probability, the difference of transformer enlistment age existence actual enlistment age and name enlistment age;
According to the failure rate change curve after maintenance, dope transformer and running probability of malfunction corresponding to time, this probability of malfunction calculates gained according to the nominal enlistment age of transformer;
The name enlistment age is utilized to be t
atime based on the probability of malfunction of health index, this probability of malfunction is as the probability of malfunction under transformer current state;
Thus the failure rate change curve of probability of malfunction after the maintenance of correspondence checks in again and run year number accordingly, be transformer at the actual enlistment age t of the equivalence in this moment
e;
On the basis of the failure rate change curve after original maintenance, the transformer name enlistment age is replaced with the equivalence actual enlistment age, obtains the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment.
In described step (5), transformer equipment entire life the time limit defining method be:
Assuming that transformer equipment failure rate is the transformer equipment failure rate threshold values of setting, according to form parameter and the scale parameter of transformer equipment failure rate change curve, determine the operation time limit of transformer equipment, this runs and is limited to the equipment equivalence actual enlistment age year,
Determine the equipment name enlistment age according to the equivalence actual enlistment age, the described equipment nominal enlistment age is time limit entire life of transformer equipment.
Expression is:
Wherein, λ
endfor transformer equipment failure rate threshold values, m is the form parameter of transformer equipment failure rate change curve, and η is scale parameter,
Δ tfor equivalence actual enlistment age and the difference of name enlistment age.
In described step (5), the current residual life of transformer equipment is: the time limit and the difference of nominal enlistment age of transformer equipment entire life of transformer equipment.
Expression is: Δ T=t
end-t
a;
Wherein, t
endfor time limit entire life of transformer equipment, t
afor the nominal enlistment age of transformer equipment.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
(1) bonding apparatus current operating state, health status and maintenance situation are revised equipment failure rate curve, and compared with traditional tub curve failure rate, accuracy is higher;
(2) assessment models equipment life based on reliability set up of the present invention, and applies at present intelligent algorithm more widely and sets up life appraisal model and contrast, little to sample requirement amount, and the accuracy of evaluates calculation does not affect by sample size;
(3) impact that the failure rate change, Chemical Apparatus Importance Classification etc. that have considered equipment running process cause, more realistic operation conditions, to equipment qualitative assessment, can accurate assurance equipment running status and fault trend, make accurate countermeasure in time, guarantee safe and stable equipment operation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is transformer equipment lifetime estimation method process flow diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is that transformer fault rate runs the matched curve of time limit relation;
Fig. 3 is the changing trend diagram of failure rate under different maintenance mode;
Fig. 4 is the relation schematic diagram of name enlistment age and actual enlistment age.
Embodiment:
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and example, the present invention will be further described:
The present invention proposes a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on equipment dependability, and as shown in Figure 1, its key step comprises:
(1) adopt Weibull Function to carry out matching to transformer fault rate curve, determine the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate;
Form and the equipment failure rate distribution situation of equipment failure rate function are in close relations, for transformer equipment, it is generally acknowledged that failure rate is classical tub curve with change curve working time, be roughly divided into early fault period, random failure period, and 3 stages of wear-out fault phase.
Carrying out life appraisal to transformer, be generally for the equipment of the operation time limit more than 10 years, therefore the present invention adopts Weibull Function to carry out matching to transformer fault rate curve.Transformer fault rate λ (t) based on Weibull distribution can be expressed as shown in formula (1).
From formula (1), transformer fault rate function mainly contains two parameters and determines: form parameter m, characterizes the shape of distribution curve; Scale parameter η, characterizes coordinate scale.
As m<1, failure rate is on a declining curve; During m=1, failure rate is constant; During m>1, failure rate is in rising trend.
(2) according to the historical statistical data of transformer equipment, piecewise fitting is carried out to the basic change curve of failure rate, tries to achieve the parameter of the basic change curve of failure rate;
As shown in table 1 is a certain area with the transformer fault rate of electric pressure and the corresponding statistics running the time limit.According to the historical statistical data of transformer equipment, to the bathtub curve piecewise fitting that formula (1) represents, the parameter m in each stage, η can be tried to achieve.
Table 1 failure rate and operation time limit statistics
Carry out Weibull according to data in table 1 to distribute two-parameter matching, the failure rate fitting result of equipment can be obtained as shown in Figure 2.Can be expressed as shown in formula (2) at the bathtub curve of spoilage malfunction phase (after running 10 years) equipment.
(3) transformer equipment maintenance be divided into continuation operation, overhaul, light maintenance and upgrade four kinds of maintenance modes, according to the reality maintenance situation calculating transformer equipment equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit, determining the failure rate change curve of equipment after maintenance;
Transformer fault rate and the matched curve of operation time limit relation.Suppose that transformer runs to t
nin the stage, need to carry out repair based on condition of component to transformer, mainly contain and continue operation, overhaul, light maintenance and upgrade four kinds of maintenance modes.Different maintenance modes is different on the impact of transformer fault rate.
Under actual conditions, the first 15 years failure rates that transformer puts into operation are lower, generally only need light maintenance to safeguard.After transformer puts into operation, between 15 years to three decades, failure rate is higher, needs to carry out large repairs in good time.And after transformer overhaul Health restoration effect along with the increase of overhaul number of times can worse and worse.To the latter stage of transformer life, overhaul has little effect to transformer Health restoration, now should consider to change to obtain higher economic benefit to transformer.In addition, better to the state of insulation of the quindecennial transformer that puts into operation after transformer puts into operation, failure rate is lower, if carry out large repairs to transformer, then the failure rate of transformer reduces less, equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit y
dbe worth less.Put into operation 15 years higher to the transformer fault rate between three decades that puts into operation, transformer maintenanceability is better, if carry out large repairs to transformer, then the failure rate range of decrease of transformer is comparatively large, equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit y
dvalue is comparatively large and tend towards stability.The Transformer Insulation Aging health status put into operation more than 30 years is poor, and maintenanceability is poor, the transformer equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit y that overhaul causes
dvalue diminished gradually with working time.
The present invention on the basis of simulation real transformer failure rate situation of change, by the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of equipment after transformer overhaul
dvalue is defined as a piecewise function.Wherein y
d1=1, y
d2=10, y
d3=2, can be expressed as shown in formula (3).
Consider that transformer generally will experience the overhaul of more than twice at run duration.The equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of transformer first, second overhaul
d, as the y in Fig. 3
d=t
n-t
1obtained by formula (3), the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of each overhaul later
dfor 50% of last overhaul equivalence enlistment age rollback year limit value.
The impact of transformer light maintenance on the equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit is tending towards constant, therefore can set the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of transformer light maintenance
x, as the y in Fig. 3
x=t
n-t
2it is 1 year; The equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit caused changed by transformer can be set as y
g, as the y in Fig. 3
g=t
n-t
n-2.After the variation tendency of failure rate obtaining transformer, just can provide technical support for the economic evaluation of transformer.
Fig. 3 illustrates that equipment runs to t
ntime, continue to run, carry out large repairs, light maintenance or change the variation tendency of equipment failure rate afterwards.If transformer is at t
nmoment continue run, then transformer failure rate along curve 1 development trend continue raise.If transformer is at t
nmoment light maintenance, then first the failure rate of transformer return back to equivalence enlistment age t
2place, the development trend then along curve 2 continues to raise.If transformer is at t
nmoment overhaul, then first the failure rate of transformer tries to achieve equivalence enlistment age t according to formula (3)
1, from t
1place continues to raise along the development trend of curve 3.If transformer is at t
nmoment is changed, then first the failure rate of transformer return back to equivalence enlistment age t
n-2place, the development trend then along curve 4 continues to raise.
(4) according to the relation of transformer equipment equivalence actual enlistment age with the name enlistment age, consider the impact of equipment health status, the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate is revised, obtains the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment;
Owing to there is maintenance, bad condition and loading condition to the impact of transformer fault probability, the difference of transformer enlistment age existence actual enlistment age and name enlistment age.The nominal enlistment age of transformer refers to total year number of equipment operation, and the actual enlistment age is then relevant to the health status of transformer, and generally the actual enlistment age exists difference with the name enlistment age.
According to the transformer fault rate function based on Weibull distribution that formula (1) is set up, transformer can be doped easily and running probability of malfunction corresponding to time.But this probability of malfunction is only calculate gained according to the nominal enlistment age of transformer, and the physical fault probability calculated by the health index of transformer exists certain deviation.
Name enlistment age t can be utilized
atime based on the probability of malfunction of health index, as the probability of malfunction under transformer current state, then probability of malfunction checks in and runs year number accordingly on the Weibull distribution curve of correspondence thus, is transformer at the actual enlistment age t of the equivalence in this moment
e.The difference DELTA t=t of equivalence actual enlistment age and name enlistment age
e-t
acan be regarded as transformer because the reason of a running body, cause benchmark probability of malfunction curve to shift to an earlier date the time of (or delayed) on a timeline, but still press the change of Weibull curve law, as shown in Figure 4.Can in the hope of the physical fault probability curve of transformer for shown in formula (4).
(5) transformer equipment failure rate threshold values λ is set
end, the time limit and current remaining life-span entire life of equipment is determined respectively according to the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment.
Along with the operation of transformer and aging, its probability of malfunction increases gradually, and reliability reduces, when probability of malfunction reaches a certain threshold value λ
endtime, transformer has had obvious aging sign, enters the quick aging phase, and each quantity of state changes greatly, close to or only slight beyond level threshold value, corresponding rate of ageing also starts in sharply ascendant trend.Can think and the terminal being now transformer reliable life should not continue to use again, the plan changing transformer should be arranged as early as possible.
Corresponding reliability residual Life Calculation method is for being: computing equipment failure rate threshold values λ
end, shown in (5), then can try to achieve equipment life-cycle time limit t according to failure rate
end, equipment residual life is equipment entire life and runs the difference of the time limit at present, shown in (7).
ΔT＝t
end-t
a(7)
According to the failure rate threshold values λ of equipment
endand above-mentioned formula 5-formula 7 can try to achieve the time limit and current remaining life-span entire life of equipment.
By reference to the accompanying drawings the specific embodiment of the present invention is described although above-mentioned; but not limiting the scope of the invention; one of ordinary skill in the art should be understood that; on the basis of technical scheme of the present invention, those skilled in the art do not need to pay various amendment or distortion that creative work can make still within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1., based on a transformer equipment lifetime estimation method for reliability, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:
(1) adopt Weibull Function to carry out matching to transformer fault rate curve, determine the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate;
(2) according to the historical statistical data of transformer equipment, piecewise fitting is carried out to the basic change curve of failure rate, tries to achieve the parameter of the basic change curve of failure rate;
(3) transformer equipment maintenance be divided into continuation operation, overhaul, light maintenance and upgrade four kinds of maintenance modes, according to the reality maintenance situation calculating transformer equipment equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit, determining the failure rate change curve of equipment after maintenance;
(4) according to the relation of transformer equipment equivalence actual enlistment age with the name enlistment age, consider the impact of equipment health status, the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate is revised, obtains the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment;
(5) transformer equipment failure rate threshold values λ is set
end, the time limit and current remaining life-span entire life of equipment is determined respectively according to the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment.
2. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (1), the basic change curve of transformer equipment failure rate is determined by two parameters:
Form parameter m, for characterizing the shape of distribution curve;
Scale parameter η, for characterizing coordinate scale;
As m<1, failure rate is on a declining curve; During m=1, failure rate is constant; During m>1, failure rate is in rising trend.
3. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (2), run the time limit according to equipment and transformer equipment failure rate is divided into initial failure stage, random failure stage and wear-out fault stage with change working time; According to the historical statistical data of transformer equipment, piecewise fitting is carried out to the basic change curve of failure rate, try to achieve form parameter m and the scale parameter η of each failure phase.
4. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (3), suppose that transformer runs to t
nin the stage, need to carry out repair based on condition of component to transformer;
By the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of equipment after transformer overhaul
dvalue is defined as a piecewise function, and described piecewise function runs the time limit by equivalence enlistment age rollback time limit y according to transformer
dvalue be divided into three sections;
The equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of transformer first time, second time overhaul
dobtain by described piecewise function, the equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of each overhaul afterwards
dbe the h% of last overhaul equivalence enlistment age rollback year limit value, wherein, h is setting value, h<1.
5. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (3), suppose that transformer runs to t
nin the stage, need to carry out repair based on condition of component to transformer;
The equivalent enlistment age rollback time limit y of transformer light maintenance
xbe set as 1 year.
6. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (4), owing to there is maintenance, bad condition and loading condition to the impact of transformer fault probability, the difference of transformer enlistment age existence actual enlistment age and name enlistment age;
According to the failure rate change curve after maintenance, dope transformer and running probability of malfunction corresponding to time, this probability of malfunction calculates gained according to the nominal enlistment age of transformer;
The name enlistment age is utilized to be t
atime based on the probability of malfunction of health index, this probability of malfunction is as the probability of malfunction under transformer current state;
Thus the failure rate change curve of probability of malfunction after the maintenance of correspondence checks in again and run year number accordingly, be transformer at the actual enlistment age t of the equivalence in this moment
e;
On the basis of the failure rate change curve after original maintenance, the transformer name enlistment age is replaced with the equivalence actual enlistment age, obtains the physical fault rate change curve of transformer equipment.
7. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (5), transformer equipment entire life the time limit defining method be:
Assuming that transformer equipment failure rate is the transformer equipment failure rate threshold values of setting, according to form parameter and the scale parameter of transformer equipment failure rate change curve, determine the operation time limit of transformer equipment, this runs and is limited to the equipment equivalence actual enlistment age year,
Determine the equipment name enlistment age according to the equivalence actual enlistment age, the described equipment nominal enlistment age is time limit entire life of transformer equipment.
8. a kind of transformer equipment lifetime estimation method based on reliability as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (5), the current residual life of transformer equipment is: the time limit and the difference of nominal enlistment age of transformer equipment entire life of transformer equipment.
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