CN105205587A - Northern grassland fire hazard risk grade rapid assessment method - Google Patents
Northern grassland fire hazard risk grade rapid assessment method Download PDFInfo
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- CN105205587A CN105205587A CN201510519960.3A CN201510519960A CN105205587A CN 105205587 A CN105205587 A CN 105205587A CN 201510519960 A CN201510519960 A CN 201510519960A CN 105205587 A CN105205587 A CN 105205587A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a northern grassland fire hazard risk grade rapid assessment method. A distance from a residential site, a distance from a road to network, a weather index, a combustible matter characteristic and a landform are selected as risk factors, and grassland area economic density, population density and basic facilities are selected for generating grassland area exposure and vulnerability indexes, such that the accuracy of grassland fire hazard risk assessment is improved, and the present situation of backward assessment of grassland fire hazard risk assessment is changed; the grassland fire hazard management capability can be enhanced; and a basis can be provided for grassland fire hazard insurance.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to fire evaluation areas, be specifically related to a kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method.
Background technology
Sudden strong, destructive large, the disposal relief comparatively difficulty of prairie fire is very serious to range resource harm.The generation of prairie fire simultaneously brings very large threat also to pastoral area people's lives and properties, brings tremendous influence to economic construction, social stability.Current prairie fire management mainly lays particular emphasis on the risk factors research of fire formation as combustible, landform, meteorological element etc., namely usually said " grassland fire "." grassland fire " lack to prairie fire formed social factor research (as artificial origin and economic factors etc.), therefore grassland fire assessment result often actual conditions differ greatly.
Grassland fire risk assessment considers that prairie fire breeds, occurs, develops and the appraisal procedure of numerous link such as impact, and its reliability is better than grassland risk evaluation.Current Grassland fire risk assessment technology can be divided into two kinds: one to be assess based on the Grassland fire risk probability of happening of prairie fire case data, the method is mainly based on historical data, do not consider the factors such as grassland combustible DYNAMIC DISTRIBUTION and social influence thereof, and cannot assess for the grassland region lacking data, so its application often has limitation; Two is the risk assessment based on Grassland fire risk key element.Most research thinks that grassland combustible is the material base that prairie fire is formed, and the change of combustible substance characteristic and state, as the impact that Fuel loads and combustible bearing capacity are formed Grassland fire risk.Emphasis of its research also pays close attention to acquisition to these key indexs and process.The formation of Grassland fire risk is the product of physical features and Social elements combined action.Therefore, the physical features that this technology is formed Grassland fire risk and Social elements comprehensive crossover are analyzed, and embody Grassland fire risk state comprehensively.
Grassland fire risk assessment also has very strong ageing.It is the Grassland fire risk rapid evaluation technology of chronomere that current China lacked with day.Also will propose Grassland fire risk index selection and disposal route, index system establishment and model method by this technology, a kind of Grassland fire risk appraisal procedure fast can be provided for grassland region (comprising without prairie fire data field) prairie fire managerial personnel.
Current prairie fire management mainly lays particular emphasis on the risk factors research of fire formation as combustible, landform, meteorological element etc., namely usually said " grassland fire "." grassland fire " lack to prairie fire formed social factor research (as artificial origin and economic factors etc.), therefore grassland fire assessment result often actual conditions differ greatly.
Summary of the invention
For solving the problem, the invention provides a kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method, have chosen distance residential area distance, distance road net distance, weather index, combustible substance characteristic and landform is the dangerous factor, have chosen grassland region economic density, the density of population and infrastructure and generate grassland region exposed property and vulnerability inder, improve the accuracy rate of Grassland fire risk assessment.
For achieving the above object, the technical scheme that the present invention takes is:
A kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method, comprises the steps:
S1, utilize remotely-sensed data combined ground to observe to determine the inverse model of Fuel loads, bearing capacity and continuation degree, wherein Fuel loads is owing to affecting by meteorological and edaphic condition, and analyzes soil and the inverse model between meteorological condition and Fuel loads;
S2, by social economy and population distribution figure, obtain social economy and density of population spatial distribution map, design strength of human activities and Grassland fire risk is contributed;
S3, utilize grid technology, GIS technology, spatial is carried out to attribute datas such as grassland region social economy, population, infrastructure, fire prevention resource, fire prevention points;
S4, to set up Grassland fire risk index system and rapid evaluation model and risk characterization method by GIS Spatial Data Analysis, graticule mesh analytical technology, spatial interpolation technology and fuzzy mathematics method.
Wherein, rapid evaluation model refers to Grassland fire risk evaluation index Fuzzy Coupling method, and risk characterization method refers to risk class division methods and foundation.
Wherein, described Grassland fire risk index system comprises hazard assessment system, exposed property appraisement system, Evaluation of vulnerability system and fire resistance property appraisement system.
Wherein, hazard assessment system comprises combustible bearing capacity, Fuel loads, combustible continuation degree, the gradient, slope aspect and strength of human activities; Exposed property appraisement system comprises social economy, personnel, grassland, livestock and infrastructure; Evaluation of vulnerability system comprise feed/grass, old childhood population, cub and inflammable facility; Fire resistance property appraisement system comprises fire prevention website, fireproofing installation, fire prevention personnel, fire prevention input and reaction time.
The present invention has following beneficial effect:
Have chosen distance residential area distance, distance road net distance, weather index, combustible substance characteristic and landform is the dangerous factor, have chosen grassland region economic density, the density of population and infrastructure and generate grassland region exposed property and vulnerability inder, improve the accuracy rate of Grassland fire risk assessment, change the present situation that the assessment of current Grassland fire risk falls behind; Prairie fire managerial ability can be promoted; Foundation can be provided for prairie fire insurance.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of a kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk of embodiment of the present invention fast evaluation method.
Embodiment
In order to make objects and advantages of the present invention clearly understand, below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention.
As shown in Figure 1, embodiments provide a kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method, comprise the steps:
S1, utilize remotely-sensed data combined ground to observe to determine the inverse model of Fuel loads, bearing capacity and continuation degree, wherein Fuel loads is owing to affecting by meteorological and edaphic condition, and analyzes soil and the inverse model between meteorological condition and Fuel loads;
S2, by social economy and population distribution figure, obtain social economy and density of population spatial distribution map, design strength of human activities and Grassland fire risk is contributed;
S3, utilize grid technology, GIS technology, spatial is carried out to attribute datas such as grassland region social economy, population, infrastructure, fire prevention resource, fire prevention points;
S4, to set up Grassland fire risk index system and rapid evaluation model and risk characterization method by GIS Spatial Data Analysis, graticule mesh analytical technology, spatial interpolation technology and fuzzy mathematics method.
Described Grassland fire risk index system comprises hazard assessment system, exposed property appraisement system, Evaluation of vulnerability system and fire resistance property appraisement system.
Hazard assessment system comprises combustible bearing capacity, Fuel loads, combustible continuation degree, the gradient, slope aspect and strength of human activities; Exposed property appraisement system comprises social economy, personnel, grassland, livestock and infrastructure; Evaluation of vulnerability system comprise feed/grass, old childhood population, cub and inflammable facility; Fire resistance property appraisement system comprises fire prevention website, fireproofing installation, fire prevention personnel, fire prevention input and reaction time.
In this concrete enforcement, rapid evaluation model and risk characterization method specifically comprise:
1. utilize prairie fire generation case, set up the fuzzy relation between prairie fire number of times and the dangerous influence factor of Grassland fire risk, realize the fuzzy preceding operation to the dangerous index of prairie fire.
2. utilize prairie fire the condition of a disaster case, set up the fuzzy relation between the exposed property of prairie fire the condition of a disaster and Grassland fire risk and fragility influence factor, realize the fuzzy preceding operation to prairie fire exposed property and vulnerability inder.
3. add up fire resistance property index (mentioning in the present invention) in each fire control station in northern China grassland, calculate mean value and the standard deviation of each index, and utilize each index of its fire resistance property to carry out standardization pre-service.
4. pair pretreated index, utilizes projection Pursuit Method to carry out dimension-reduction treatment, calculates best projection direction, sets up the best Grassland fire risk assessment models based on projection pursuit.
5. utilize day prairie fire case data, in conjunction with Grassland fire risk assessed value result, utilize optimal cut part method, determine Grassland fire risk grade, and find out prairie fire danger, exposed property, fragility and Reduction of Fire Disaster ability to the contribution rate of Grassland fire risk.
Embodiment
Xilinguole League's Grassland fire risk assessment;
Utilize index system of the present invention, it is the dangerous factor that this example have chosen distance residential area distance, distance road net distance, weather index, combustible substance characteristic and landform, have chosen grassland region economic density, the density of population and infrastructure and generate grassland region exposed property and vulnerability inder, simultaneously by Xilinguole League's grassland fireproofing ability degree and zoning.Utilize Grassland fire risk assessment models to calculate, then Grassland fire risk assessment result and prairie fire day are occurred case contrast and find, both have very strong correlativity.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention; it should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention; can also make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should be considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. a Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method, is characterized in that, comprises the steps:
S1, utilize remotely-sensed data combined ground to observe to determine the inverse model of Fuel loads, bearing capacity and continuation degree, and analyze soil and the inverse model between meteorological condition and Fuel loads;
S2, by social economy and population distribution figure, obtain social economy and density of population spatial distribution map, design strength of human activities and Grassland fire risk is contributed;
S3, utilize grid technology, GIS technology, spatial is carried out to attribute datas such as grassland region social economy, population, infrastructure, fire prevention resource, fire prevention points;
S4, to set up Grassland fire risk index system and rapid evaluation model and risk characterization method by GIS Spatial Data Analysis, graticule mesh analytical technology, spatial interpolation technology and fuzzy mathematics method.
2. a kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described Grassland fire risk index system comprises hazard assessment system, exposed property appraisement system, Evaluation of vulnerability system and fire resistance property appraisement system.
3. a kind of Northern grassland level of building fire risk fast evaluation method according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, hazard assessment system comprises combustible bearing capacity, Fuel loads, combustible continuation degree, the gradient, slope aspect and strength of human activities; Exposed property appraisement system comprises social economy, personnel, grassland, livestock and infrastructure; Evaluation of vulnerability system comprise feed/grass, old childhood population, cub and inflammable facility; Fire resistance property appraisement system comprises fire prevention website, fireproofing installation, fire prevention personnel, fire prevention input and reaction time.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111339237A (en) * | 2020-02-28 | 2020-06-26 | 深圳前海微众银行股份有限公司 | Farm risk prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN112668927A (en) * | 2021-01-07 | 2021-04-16 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Dynamic forest fire risk assessment method considering human factors based on clustering method |
| CN114781859A (en) * | 2022-04-20 | 2022-07-22 | 广东省科学院广州地理研究所 | Slope mapping forest fire risk assessment method, device, medium and equipment |
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111339237A (en) * | 2020-02-28 | 2020-06-26 | 深圳前海微众银行股份有限公司 | Farm risk prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium |
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| CN112668927A (en) * | 2021-01-07 | 2021-04-16 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Dynamic forest fire risk assessment method considering human factors based on clustering method |
| CN112668927B (en) * | 2021-01-07 | 2023-11-24 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Dynamic mountain fire risk assessment method considering human factors based on clustering method |
| CN114781859A (en) * | 2022-04-20 | 2022-07-22 | 广东省科学院广州地理研究所 | Slope mapping forest fire risk assessment method, device, medium and equipment |
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