CN105184041A - Spline interpolation analysis method of power transmission line meteorological characteristics - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of the risk early warning evaluation of a power transmission line, in particular to a spline interpolation analysis method of power transmission line meteorological characteristics. The tripping risk evaluation method comprises the following steps: 1) analyzing the daily value data of a county-level observation station of a meteorological department; 2) substituting a tower coordinate of the power transmission line into a spatial interpolation function to obtain wind power parameters along a line, and independently calculating the wind load three parameters of a tower, a conductor, a ground wire and an insulator; 3) establishing a five-range evaluation table based on the wind load three parameters; and 4) determining a tripping risk of the line under the condition of strong wind. The risk evaluation method avoids errors brought by meteorological statistics and adopts three-parameter wind load to evaluate a tripping probability of the line under the condition of the strong wind, and evaluation is more comprehensive since a continuous function of the wind load is generally considered.

Description

A kind of spline interpolation analytical approach of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics

Technical field

The present invention relates to transmission line of electricity Risk-warning and become more meticulous technical field of data processing, particularly a kind of spline interpolation analytical approach of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics.

Background technology

Transmission line of electricity is electric system main artery, it is the tie connecting generating plant and power consumer, because overhead transmission line is crisscross, be directly exposed in physical environment, exceedingly odious meteorological condition, such as thunder and lightning, typhoon, heavy rain, mountain fire etc., all may bring the safe and stable operation of transmission line of electricity and have a strong impact on, according to statistics, because of meteorology, the 110kV that environment reason causes and above transmission line of electricity trip event, often account for more than 70% of the whole trip event of grid power transmission circuit, electric system is needed badly and is carried out transmission line of electricity trip risk evaluation studies under exceedingly odious meteorological condition for this reason.This research mainly can be divided into analytical method and the large class of simulation two.The former is comparatively wide in regional ranges of application such as North Americas, and latter is more common in Europe; Analytical method is the stray parameter according to each known power system component, set up the Reliable Mathematics model of whole system, and the indices of system is obtained by numerical evaluation, but for Iarge-scale system, this model needs the many factors considered, calculate more complicated, its Typical Representative is fault tree analysis process.Simulation carrys out the actual conditions of simulation system by computing machine, carry out the observation analysis of a period of time through simulation process, estimate required index, its Typical Representative is Monte Carlo Analogue Method, when carrying out risk assessment to large-scale electrical power system, adopting more is Monte Carlo Analogue Method.At present, the methods of risk assessment that domestic power transmission and transforming equipment is conventional mainly contains risk coordinate diagram method, failure model and effect analysis method, Monte Carlo method, fault tree analysis etc.

No matter adopt above that method, transmission line of electricity weather data is the basic parameter of risk assessment, weather data precision will affect the accuracy of risk assessment, in existing correlative study, it is all the forecast data directly adopting meteorological department, for ease of forecast, website region meteorologic parameter is unified for this website observed reading, general in units of prefecture-level city, for the circuit running through certain prefecture-level city, its weather data along the line is consistent, this and actual conditions difference are larger, directly these data are used for follow-up risk assessment, comparatively big error can be brought, and electric system at present does not also have correlation analysis method, meteorological department's data are processed, widely distributed in conjunction with transmission line of electricity, along the feature that thread environment is various, become more meticulous and analyze its periphery weather environment, improve risk assessment accuracy

Summary of the invention

Object of the present invention is the problems referred to above solving prior art, provide a kind of spline interpolation analytical approach of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics, according to meteorological department's data, splines is adopted to set up space interpolation function, in conjunction with transmission line of electricity geography information, final generation transmission line of electricity periphery meteorologic parameter, assesses for trip risk, to achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is as follows:

A spline interpolation analytical approach for transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics, is characterized in that: according to meteorological department's data, adopts splines to set up space interpolation function, in conjunction with transmission line of electricity geography information, and generation circuit periphery environment parament.Comprise the following steps:

Step 1: analyze meteorological department's research station day at county level Value Data, information comprises meteorological observation point geographic coordinate, and gas epidemic disaster, wind speed and rainfall amount parameter, gather in units of sky; By meteorological day by day data process, the weather data that the present invention adopts is meteorological department's research station day at county level Value Data, analyzes in units of sky; Process meteorological data mainly carries out mark to meteorological observation point and numbers and add up its geography information, and meteorologic parameter comprises gas epidemic disaster, wind speed, rainfall amount;

Step 2: adopt splines to analyze existing weather data, the interpolation curve of fitting and smoothing, set up space interpolation function Z=F (X, Y);

Step 3: transmission line tower coordinate is substituted into space interpolation function, obtains circuit meteorologic parameter along the line; By obtaining overhead line structures periphery weather information, by space interpolation function Z=F (X, Y) for obtaining transmission line of electricity periphery weather information, because power system transmission line geographic coordinate is based on shaft tower coordinate, the present invention is meteorological distribution along the line using shaft tower place weather environment as circuit, by shaft tower coordinate, calculate shaft tower and each research station distance, to obtain meteorologic parameter.

Step 4: respectively in units of Time and place, generates meteorological distribution curve along the line and each shaft tower weather data earning in a day curve; Utilize overhead line structures periphery weather information, generation circuit meteorological statistics chart, assess for use in transmission line of electricity trip risk;

Preferably, the space interpolation function expression of described splines foundation is as follows:

$Z={\Σ}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{d}_i^2{\mathrm{logd}}_i+a+bX+cY,$

Wherein, Z is the meteorological element estimated value of point to be inserted, and m is the number of the meteorological observation website participating in interpolation, d _ifor the space length of to be inserted o'clock to i-th meteorological observation point, a+bX+cY is local trend module; it is a basic function; X, Y are the position coordinates of point to be inserted, A _i, a, b and c be equation coefficient; Spline interpolation utilizes sample point matching smooth curve exactly, finds a surface curvature minimum curve surface when meeting optimal smoothing principle;

Preferably, described space interpolation functional equation coefficient is solved by following expression, minimizes curvature with what obtain curved surface:

${\Σ}_{j=1,j\≠i}^m{A}_j{d}_j^2{\mathrm{logd}}_j+a+{\mathrm{bX}}_i+{\mathrm{cY}}_i=Z_i,$

${\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i=0,{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{X}_i=0,{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{Y}_i=0.$

In sum, the present invention has the following advantages and good effect:

(1) based on difference value principle, become more meticulous and analyze transmission line of electricity meteorologic parameter along the line, improve its trip risk assessment accuracy.

(2) splines is the piecewise function of flexible curve gauge, be ensure that the junction of segment of curve is level and smooth during matching, usually a few sample point is only had to carry out registration, therefore whole piece curve need not be calculated, only need a certain section of sample point of match curve one by one, the relatively very fast communication structure of interpolation speed is flexible and changeable.

Accompanying drawing explanation

In order to be illustrated more clearly in example of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, introduce doing accompanying drawing required in embodiment or description of the prior art simply below, apparently, accompanying drawing in the following describes is only examples more of the present invention, to those skilled in the art, do not paying under creationary prerequisite, other accompanying drawing can also obtained according to these accompanying drawings.

Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram of the spline interpolation analytical approach of a kind of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the circuit weather data analysis process flow diagram of the spline interpolation analytical approach of a kind of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics of the present invention

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in example of the present invention, be clearly and completely described the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention, obviously, described embodiment is only the present invention's part embodiment, instead of whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in invention, those of ordinary skill in the art, not making the every other embodiment obtained under creative work prerequisite, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.

Be further described below in conjunction with the spline interpolation analytical approach of accompanying drawing 1 to a kind of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics of the present invention, the present invention is according to meteorological department's research station day at county level Value Data, based on Spline-Fitting smooth curve, when meeting optimal smoothing principle, find a surface curvature minimum curve surface, set up space interpolation function, according to power system transmission line shaft tower geographic coordinate, import in space interpolation function, ask for shaft tower place environment weather parameter, characterize circuit meteorological condition along the line with this, concrete steps are as follows:

(1) meteorological day by day data process:

In embodiments of the present invention, the data of analyzing and processing are from relevant weather department day Value Data, in units of research station at county level, for follow-up interpolation processing provides sample as much as possible, to improve processing accuracy, for ease of subsequent treatment, weather data gathers in units of sky, set up meteorological form day by day, be numbered meteorological observation website, this is numbered subsequent treatment important parameter; Weather data mainly comprises geography information and meteorologic parameter, and wherein meteorologic parameter only studies gas epidemic disaster, wind speed, rainfall amount.

(2) spline interpolation analysis:

As shown in Figure 1, in embodiments of the present invention, according to the weather data day by day of pre-treatment, carry out space interpolation analysis, because weather station quantity is relatively less, for ensureing interpolation processing accuracy and rationality, the present invention spy adopts interpolating function based on splines, splines is the piecewise function of flexible curve gauge, be ensure that the junction of segment of curve is level and smooth during matching, usually a few sample point is only had to carry out registration, spline interpolation utilizes sample point matching smooth curve exactly, when meeting optimal smoothing principle, find a surface curvature minimum curve surface, by following expression to sample point matching smooth curve:

$Z={\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{d}_i^2{\mathrm{logd}}_i+a+bX+cY,$

Wherein, Z is the meteorological element estimated value of point to be inserted, and m is the number of the meteorological observation website participating in interpolation, d _ifor the space length of to be inserted o'clock to i-th meteorological observation point, a+bX+cY is local trend module, and X, Y are the position coordinates of point to be inserted, it is a basic function.A _i, a, b and c be equation coefficient, minimize curvature in order to what obtain curved surface, can be tried to achieve by system of equations below:

${\mathrm{\Σ}}_{j=1,j\≠i}^m{A}_j{d}_j^2{\mathrm{logd}}_j+a+{\mathrm{bX}}_i+{\mathrm{cY}}_i=Z_i,$

$\begin{array}{ccc}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i=0,& {\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{X}_i=0,& {\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{Y}_i=0\end{array}$

Spline interpolation analysis process is as follows:

(1), according to meteorological form day by day, order selects one of them weather station i as point to be inserted by number, and its meteorological watch parameter is as Interpolate estimation value, and its geographic coordinate (X, Y) is as interpolating function input quantity.

(2), according to the geographic coordinate (X of weather station i _i, Y _i), calculate the distance d with other research stations j _j; Suppose during calculating that the earth is a standard ball, radius is R, and supposes that east longitude is just, west longitude is negative, and north latitude is just, south latitude is negative; Therefore (X _i, Y _i) rectangular coordinate can be expressed as:

(R×cosY _i×cosX _i，R×cosY _i×sinX _i，R×sinY _i)，

(X _i, Y _i) rectangular coordinate can be expressed as:

(R×cosY _j×cosX _j，R×cosY _j×sinX _j，R×sinY _j)，

So, (X _i, Y _i) and (X _j, Y _j) for the centre of sphere the cosine of an angle size of opening be:

cosY _j×cosY _i×(cosX _j×cosX _i+sinX _j×sinX _i)+sinY _j×sinY _i)＝

cosY _j×cosY _i×cos(X _j-X _i)+sinY _j×sinY _i，

Therefore the spherical distance of AB 2 is:

d _i＝R×{cos ^-1[cosY _j×cosY _i×cos(X _j-X _i)+sinY _j×sinY _i]}，

(3), basic function is set up and generate equation i;

(4), select next weather station i+1, generate equivalent i+1 by said process;

(5), complete all weather stations data processing after, generate and comprise the system of equations of i+3 equation;

(6), solving equation group, set up space interpolation function Z=F (X, Y).

(3) overhead line structures periphery weather information is obtained:

As shown in Figure 2, in the embodiment of the present invention, following interpolating function Z=F (X is obtained according to above-mentioned steps, Y), interpolating function input quantity is to be inserted some geographic coordinate, because power system transmission line geographic coordinate is based on shaft tower coordinate, the present invention is meteorological distribution along the line using shaft tower place weather environment as circuit; Concrete steps are as follows:

1), according to shaft tower size, shaft tower geographic coordinate (X, Y) is extracted successively from small to large;

2), according to shaft tower geographic coordinate, the distance d of shaft tower apart from each observation station is calculated _i;

3), according to spline interpolation function, the meteorologic parameter of shaft tower point is calculated;

4), complete all shaft tower meteorologic parameters of circuit to calculate.

(4) generation circuit meteorological statistics chart:

Utilize the overhead line structures periphery meteorologic parameter asked for, respectively in units of room and time, generate meteorological distribution curve along the line and each shaft tower weather data earning in a day curve, assess for use in transmission line of electricity trip risk.

The foregoing is only the preferred embodiment of invention, not in order to limit the present invention, within the spirit and principles in the present invention all, any amendment done, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., all should be included within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (3)

1. a spline interpolation analytical approach for transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics, is characterized in that: according to meteorological department's data, adopts splines to set up space interpolation function, in conjunction with transmission line of electricity geography information, and generation circuit periphery environment parament.Comprise the following steps:

Step 1: analyze meteorological department's research station day at county level Value Data, information comprises meteorological observation point geographic coordinate, and gas epidemic disaster, wind speed and rainfall amount parameter, gather in units of sky;

Step 2: adopt splines to analyze existing weather data, the interpolation curve of fitting and smoothing, set up space interpolation function Z=F (X, Y);

Wherein, Z is the meteorological element estimated value of point to be inserted, and m is the number of the meteorological observation website participating in interpolation, d _ifor the space length of to be inserted o'clock to i-th meteorological observation point, X, Y are the position coordinates of point to be inserted, A _i, a, b and c be equation coefficient.

Step 3: transmission line tower coordinate is substituted into space interpolation function, obtains circuit meteorologic parameter along the line;

Step 4: respectively in units of Time and place, generates meteorological distribution curve along the line and each shaft tower weather data earning in a day curve.

2. the spline interpolation analytical approach of a kind of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the space interpolation function expression that described splines is set up is as follows:

$Z={\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{d}_i^2{\mathrm{logd}}_i+a+bX+cY,$

Wherein, Z is the meteorological element estimated value of point to be inserted, and m is the number of the meteorological observation website participating in interpolation, d _ifor the space length of to be inserted o'clock to i-th meteorological observation point, a+bX+cY is local trend module; X, Y are the position coordinates of point to be inserted, A _i, a, b and c be equation coefficient.

3. the spline interpolation analytical approach of a kind of transmission line of electricity Meteorological Characteristics according to claim 2, is characterized in that: described space interpolation functional equation coefficient is solved by following expression, minimizes curvature with what obtain curved surface:

${\mathrm{\Σ}}_{j=1,j\≠i}^m{A}_j{d}_j^2{\mathrm{logd}}_j+a+{\mathrm{bX}}_i+{\mathrm{cY}}_i=Z_i,$

${\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i=0,{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{X}_i=0,{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{A}_i{Y}_i=0.$