CN104851298A - Prediction of traffic condition and running time - Google Patents
Prediction of traffic condition and running time Download PDFInfo
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- CN104851298A CN104851298A CN201510312501.8A CN201510312501A CN104851298A CN 104851298 A CN104851298 A CN 104851298A CN 201510312501 A CN201510312501 A CN 201510312501A CN 104851298 A CN104851298 A CN 104851298A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
- G08G1/0133—Traffic data processing for classifying traffic situation
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Abstract
The invention relates to prediction of traffic condition and running time. The prediction comprises the steps: segmenting a road on a map; obtaining the current traffic condition of each road segment and the previous traffic condition of each road segment; calculating the variation trend of the traffic condition of each road segment based on the current traffic condition of each road segment and the previous traffic condition of each road segment; estimating the future traffic condition of each road segment based on the current traffic condition of each road segment and the previous traffic condition of each road segment; presenting the estimated future traffic condition of each road segment on the map. The above method can be used for predicting the running time: estimating the traffic condition of each road segment at an estimation moment based on the current traffic condition of each road segment and the previous traffic condition of each road segment, thereby estimating the running time of each road segment of each candidate driving line. According to the running time of each road segment of each candidate driving line, the total running time is estimated.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to map and navigation, more specifically, relate to predict traffic conditions and running time.
Background technology
At present, electronic chart is widely used in Mobile solution or desktop application.As long as network support, people can check electronic chart whenever and wherever possible, search the destination oneself wanting to understand.Electronic chart can show current traffic condition.Such as, green represents unimpeded section, and yellow represents low running speed section, and redness then represents congested link.People are when driving trip, and the traffic that can Reference Map show, can have certain in-mind anticipation to stroke on the one hand, can select to a certain extent on the other hand relatively smoothly route to avoid blocking up.
But people saw map, to understand stroke or to plan often before trip.That is, traffic when seeing map is also not equal to actual trip to traffic during certain section.
In the application of some electronic navigations, many candidate's traffic routes can be provided.For these many alternative route, electronic navigation can estimate the time that may need, for people's reference when selection schemer.But electronic navigation estimated time is all generally based on current traffic.Actual trip is not equal to traffic during this section, so the time phase difference that when in fact the time estimated go on a journey with reality, this route spends is more due to traffic during selection schemer.
Summary of the invention
Consider above situation, wish the element of the traffic adding prediction future time in map.And, when people select traffic route, can provide the prediction of future traffic condition thus estimate running time of spending more accurately, for reference.
According to an aspect of the present invention, provide a kind of method embodying predict traffic conditions on map, comprise the steps: the road on map to carry out segmentation; The traffic of the current traffic condition obtaining each segmentation road and time before; Based on the traffic of current traffic condition with time before, calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road; Based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road; And the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road estimated is presented on map.
Preferably, described traffic is passage rate, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the passage rate of time before by current passage rate.
Preferably, described traffic is congestion index, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the congestion index of time before by cur-rent congestion index.
Preferably, except based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and traffic variation tendency, also based on will event on each segmentation road following, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
Preferably, the segmentation road on the map with different traffic is presented with different colours.
According to another aspect of the present invention, provide a kind of method predicting running time, comprise the steps: according to departure place and destination, map identifies one or more candidate's traffic route; Every bar candidate traffic route is carried out segmentation; The traffic of the current traffic condition obtaining each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route and time before; Based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route and the traffic of time before, calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route; According to current traffic condition, estimate the time arriving each segmentation road in every bar route; Based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival; Based on the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, estimate the running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route; And estimate total running time according to running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route.
Preferably, described traffic is passage rate, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the passage rate of time before by current passage rate.
Preferably, described traffic is congestion index, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the congestion index of time before by cur-rent congestion index.
Preferably, except based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and traffic variation tendency, also based on will event on each segmentation road following, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
Preferably, be added by the running time of each segmentation road by every bar candidate traffic route and obtain total running time of every bar candidate traffic route.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Below with reference to the accompanying drawings the present invention is described in conjunction with the embodiments.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram embodying the method for predict traffic conditions on map according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of the method for prediction running time according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
Specific embodiments of the invention will be described in detail below.
Fig. 1 is the flow process Figure 100 embodying the method for predict traffic conditions on map according to the embodiment of the present invention.
According to Fig. 1, in step 101, first the road on map is carried out segmentation.Current electronic chart substantially all can carry out segmentation to the road on map, is used for marking different traffics.Such as, the segmentation of road can based on distance, such as, every 1 kilometer or every 500 meters, 100 meters, 50 meters, 10 meters or arbitrarily other suitable distances as one section; The segmentation of road also can based on the setting of traffic lights, and such as, the road between every two (or more) traffic lights is as one section; The segmentation of road also can based on the planning of block, and such as, the road between each block, each crossroad is as one section.In theory, roadway segment is thinner, and the traffic reflected is also more accurate, but simultaneously for the calculating of electronic chart and the requirement of storage also higher.In addition, it should be noted that on same path or on same route, the segmentation criteria of road can be different, and therefore, some sections are 500 meters, 1 kilometer, some sections.
In step 103, the traffic of the current traffic condition obtaining each segmentation road and time before.
The mode obtaining the traffic of road has a variety of.Such as, investigate in certain hour by passing through the number etc. of the end to end automobile in this section in the travel speed of the automobile in this section, certain hour.According to different modes, the physical quantity of reflection traffic can be road speed, also can be congestion index.Such as, the physical quantity using road speed as reflection traffic, speed per hour 40-60 kilometer can be thought unimpeded, and speed per hour 20-40 kilometer can think low running speed, and speed per hour less than 20 kilometers can be thought to block up, and speed per hour less than 5 kilometers can think heavy congestion, etc.In another example, the physical quantity using congestion index as reflection traffic, such as, can use the congestion index of 0-10, congestion index is larger, shows that traffic is more blocked up; Otherwise congestion index is less, then show that traffic is more unobstructed.Congestion index can obtain based on the travel speed of the automobile by this section in certain hour, also can obtain based on the number etc. of the end to end automobile by this section in certain hour.
In step 103, current traffic condition can be obtained, the passage rate in such as this section or congestion index by the open real time data of local transit administration office actual measurement.Meanwhile, can according to the large data of history, find the traffic of this section in time before, such as this section is in passage rate at that time or congestion index.
In the present invention, a period of time can refer to 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes or arbitrarily before other appropriate time sections.
In step 105, based on the traffic of current traffic condition with time before, calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road.In one embodiment, the traffic of current traffic condition with time is before compared, to calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road.
Such as, traffic variation tendency can be the variation tendency of speed, compares by the passage rate of current passage rate with time before.Specifically, by the difference of current passage rate and the passage rate of time before compared with the passage rate of time before, the ratio obtained is velocity variations Trend index.Such as, the current passage rate in a certain section is 50 kilometers/hour, and the passage rate before 15 minutes is 40 kilometers/hour, then the velocity variations Trend index in 15 minutes is: (50-40)/40=+0.25.In another example, the current passage rate in a certain section is 40 kilometers/hour, and the passage rate before 15 minutes is 50 kilometers/hour, then the velocity variations Trend index in 15 minutes is: (40-50)/50=-0.20.That is, the symbol of velocity variations Trend index (+or-) expression speed is in raising or reduces, and concrete numerical value is then the degree of change.
Similarly, traffic variation tendency can be the variation tendency of congestion index (such as, between 0 to 10, the larger expression of numerical value is more blocked up), compares by the congestion index of cur-rent congestion index with time before.Specifically, by the difference of cur-rent congestion index and the congestion index of time before compared with the congestion index of time before, the ratio obtained is the variation tendency index that blocks up.Such as, the cur-rent congestion index in a certain section is the congestion index before 5.0,15 minutes is 4.0, then the variation tendency index that blocks up in 15 minutes is: (5.0-4.0)/4.0=+0.25.In another example, the cur-rent congestion index in a certain section is the congestion index before 4.0,15 minutes is 5.0, then the variation tendency index that blocks up in 15 minutes is: (4.0-5.0)/5.0=-0.20.That is, the symbol of variation tendency of blocking up index (+or-) represent and block up in aggravation or alleviate, concrete numerical value is then the degree of change.
Above-mentioned velocity variations Trend index and the variation tendency index that blocks up are all the examples of traffic variation tendency.
In addition, the traffic of time may be the traffic of multiple time before before.Therefore, the curve of traffic variation tendency can be obtained by the traffic of several time point.
In general, user wishes the traffic predicting future time, such as, predict the traffic after 30 minutes.16:00 if current, after user wishes prediction 30 minutes, i.e. the traffic of 16:30.
In step 107, based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
Such as, for a certain segmentation road, the traffic of 16:30 to be predicted when 16:00, can be multiplied by by the traffic of 16:00 (1+ traffic variation tendency (such as traffic variation tendency) * time scale), so just estimate the traffic obtaining 16:30.This process can be calculated as follows:
Speed: 30 kilometers/hour of * (1+0.25*30/15)=45 kilometer/hour
Block up: 4.0* (1-0.20*30/15)=2.4
Here, continue to use the example adopted in step 105, namely current traffic condition is the speed of a motor vehicle of 30 kilometers/hour or the congestion index of 4.0, and the traffic variation tendency in 15 minutes is velocity variations Trend index+0.25 and the variation tendency index-0.20 that blocks up.
Be noted here that future time should mate with the time being used for calculating variation tendency, such as, predict the traffic after 30 minutes, the variation tendency in 15 minutes can be used, and the variation tendency in 5 minutes should not be adopted.Especially, larger for time span, such as half an hour or more than one hour, the mode of change trend curve (curve) should be adopted to estimate and application change trend.
Except based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and traffic variation tendency, based on will event on each segmentation road following, the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road can also be estimated.
Such as, traffic control (such as, restriction current) will be carried out at 16:30 due to foreign affairs activity in certain section known.When estimating the traffic of future time of each segmentation road, it is also conceivable to this situation, the traffic of the future time estimated based on current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency is revised further.
In step 109, the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road estimated is presented on map.By above step, each segmentation road on map has estimated the traffic of each comfortable future time.Need the traffic these predicted, map presents.Wherein, for the segmentation road that predict traffic conditions is different, map carries out different presenting respectively.In one embodiment, the segmentation road on the map with different predict traffic conditions is presented with different colours.It will be understood by those skilled in the art that presentation mode besides colour, can also be gray scale, texture, shade, flicker, can be even auditory tone cues, voice message, tonal variations, or the differentiation of sense of touch aspect presents.
By the method for flow process Figure 100 of Fig. 1, people are easier to understand traffic by viewing map.Such as, user, when selecting to check traffic, can select to check current traffic condition, also can select the predict traffic conditions of checking certain time following or certain period.Like this, people can have certain in-mind anticipation to the trip in future, also can plan according to prediction or adjust oneself time and stroke.
Fig. 2 is flow process Figure 200 of the method for prediction running time according to the embodiment of the present invention.
According to Fig. 2, in step 201, according to departure place and destination, map identifies one or more candidate's traffic route.Current many electronic charts all have the function of stroke planning or traffic navigation, and in addition, automatic navigator also all has the function of stroke planning or traffic navigation.According to the departure place that user-selected destination and user's current location (departure place) or user are specified, map identifies one or several candidate's traffic route.Such as, three traffic routes such as route 1, route 2, route 3 are identified.
In step 203, every bar candidate traffic route is carried out segmentation.In step 205, the traffic of the current traffic condition obtaining each segmentation of every bar candidate traffic route and time before.
About obtaining the current traffic condition of each segmentation of every bar candidate traffic route and the mode of the traffic of time before, can with reference to the concrete discussion of step 103 in the process flow diagram of Fig. 1.
In step 207, based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation of every bar candidate traffic route and the traffic of time before, calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation of every bar candidate traffic route.In one embodiment, described traffic is passage rate, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the passage rate of time before by current passage rate.In another embodiment, described traffic is congestion index, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the congestion index of time before by cur-rent congestion index.Can with reference to the concrete discussion of step 105 in the process flow diagram of Fig. 1.
Be noted here that future time should mate with the time being used for calculating variation tendency, such as, predict the traffic after 30 minutes, the variation tendency in 15 minutes can be used, and the variation tendency in 5 minutes should not be adopted.Especially, larger for time span, such as half an hour or more than one hour, the mode of change trend curve (curve) should be adopted to estimate and application change trend.
In step 209, according to current traffic condition, estimate the time arriving each segmentation road in every bar route.Existing electronic navigation application all has corresponding function.In fact, be equivalent to allow electronic navigation to calculate respectively from starting point to each segmentation road according to current traffic condition needed for time.Such as, in certain alternative route, one has 10 segmentation roads, then according to the current traffic condition of each segmentation road calculate respectively from starting point to the 2nd, the 3rd ..., the 10th time needed for segmentation road.Such as, need respectively 10 minutes, 20 minutes ..., 70 minutes.
In step 211, based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival.
Still the example having 10 segmentation roads is above continued to use.Obtained the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd ... the current traffic condition of the 10th segmentation road.Such as, current vehicle speed be respectively 40,40,30 ..., 50 kilometers/hour, or cur-rent congestion index is respectively 4.0,4.0,4.8 ..., 3.0.And the traffic variation tendency of these segmentation roads be respectively 0.0 ,+0.1 (in 5 minutes) ,+0.2 (in 10 minutes) ... ,+0.2 (in 60 minutes) (speed trend) or 0.0 ,-0.1 (in 5 minutes) ,-0.2 (in 10 minutes) ... ,-0.2 (in 60 minutes) (congestion tendency).Therefore, the traffic of each segmentation road in estimated time of arrival can be estimated as follows:
1st segmentation road: Dang Qian – speed of a motor vehicle 40 kilometers/hour, congestion index 4.0;
2nd segmentation road: Hou – estimated speed of a motor vehicle 40* (1+0.1*10/5)=48 kilometer/hour in 10 minutes, estimated congestion index 4.0* (1-0.1*10/5)=3.2;
3rd segmentation road: Hou – estimated speed of a motor vehicle 30* (1+0.2*20/10)=42 kilometer/hour in 20 minutes, estimated congestion index 4.8* (1-0.2*10/5)=2.88;
……
10th segmentation road: Hou – estimated speed of a motor vehicle 50* (1+0.2*70/60)=61.7 kilometer/hour in 70 minutes, estimated congestion index 3.0* (1-0.2*70/60)=2.3
Except based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and traffic variation tendency, based on will event on each segmentation road following, the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road can also be estimated.
Such as, traffic control (such as, restriction current) will be carried out due to foreign affairs activity in certain section known after half an hour.When estimating the traffic of future time of each segmentation road, it is also conceivable to this situation, the traffic of the future time estimated based on current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency is revised further.
In step 213, based on the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, estimate the running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route.
Such as, by the length of each segmentation road respectively divided by the speed of a motor vehicle of the time arrived estimated by estimating in step 213, the running time of each estimated segmentation road is just obtained.Or, based on each segmentation road length with to estimate in step 213 estimated by the congestion index of time that arrives, also can obtain the running time of each estimated segmentation road.Such as, still continue to use the example having 10 segmentation roads above, obtain the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd ..., the 10th segmentation road running time be respectively 10 minutes, 8 minutes, 9 minutes ..., 5 minutes.
In step 215, estimate total running time according to running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route.
Be added by the running time of each segmentation road by every bar candidate traffic route and obtain total running time of every bar candidate traffic route.Such as, still continue to use the example having 10 segmentation roads above, by the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd ..., the 10th segmentation road running time be added respectively and obtain N=10+8+9+ ... + 5.Total running time of every bar candidate traffic route is N minute.
In the application of some electronic navigations, one or more candidate's traffic route can be provided.For this one or more alternative route, electronic navigation can estimate the time that may need, for people's reference when selection schemer.But electronic navigation estimated time is all generally based on current traffic.Actual trip is not equal to traffic during this section, so the time phase difference that when in fact the time estimated go on a journey with reality, this route spends is more due to traffic during selection schemer.
Consider above situation, the invention enables when people select traffic route, can provide the prediction of future traffic condition thus estimate running time of spending more accurately, for reference.
Be described above embodiments of the invention.But the spirit and scope of the present invention are not limited thereto.Those skilled in the art can make more application according to instruction of the present invention, and all within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. on map, embody a method for predict traffic conditions, comprise the steps:
Road on map is carried out segmentation;
The traffic of the current traffic condition obtaining each segmentation road and time before;
Based on the traffic of current traffic condition with time before, calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road;
Based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road; And
The traffic of the future time of each segmentation road estimated is presented on map.
2. method according to claim 1, wherein, described traffic is passage rate, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the passage rate of time before by current passage rate.
3. method according to claim 1, wherein, described traffic is congestion index, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the congestion index of time before by cur-rent congestion index.
4. method according to claim 1, wherein, based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road, comprise further: except based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and traffic variation tendency, also based on will event on each segmentation road following, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
5. method according to claim 1, wherein, is presented on the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road calculated on map and comprises: present the segmentation road on the map with different traffic with different colours.
6. predict the method for running time, comprise the steps:
According to departure place and destination, map identifies one or more candidate's traffic route;
Every bar candidate traffic route is carried out segmentation;
The traffic of the current traffic condition obtaining each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route and time before;
Based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route and the traffic of time before, calculate the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route;
According to current traffic condition, estimate the time arriving each segmentation road in every bar route;
Based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival;
Based on the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, estimate the running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route; And
Total running time is estimated according to running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route.
7. method according to claim 6, wherein, described traffic is passage rate, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the passage rate of time before by current passage rate.
8. method according to claim 6, wherein, described traffic is congestion index, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road by being compared with the congestion index of time before by cur-rent congestion index.
9. method according to claim 6, wherein, based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of each segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, comprise further: except based on the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and traffic variation tendency, also based on will event on each segmentation road following, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
10. method according to claim 6, wherein, estimate that total running time comprises according to running time of each segmentation road of every bar candidate traffic route: be added by the running time of each segmentation road by every bar candidate traffic route and obtain total running time of every bar candidate traffic route.
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| WO2020191701A1 (en) * | 2019-03-28 | 2020-10-01 | 北京百度网讯科技有限公司 | Road conditions prediction method, apparatus, and device, and computer storage medium |
| EP3767605A4 (en) * | 2019-03-28 | 2021-06-16 | Beijing Baidu Netcom Science and Technology Co., Ltd. | Road conditions prediction method, apparatus, and device, and computer storage medium |
| US11823574B2 (en) | 2019-03-28 | 2023-11-21 | Beijing Baidu Netcom Science And Technology Co., Ltd. | Method and apparatus for prediction road condition, device and computer storage medium |
| CN111854777A (en) * | 2019-04-30 | 2020-10-30 | 长城汽车股份有限公司 | Updating method of navigation route driving time, navigation method, navigation system and vehicle |
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| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN104851298B (en) | 2017-06-27 |
| WO2016197936A1 (en) | 2016-12-15 |
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