CN104701842B - A kind of independent micro-grid electric power system and Reliability Estimation Method thereof - Google Patents
A kind of independent micro-grid electric power system and Reliability Estimation Method thereof Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of independent micro-grid electric power system and Reliability Estimation Method thereof.Independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different feeder zone, the power-supply device operational factor of renewable energy power generation unit, non-renewable energy resources generating set and energy storage device and fault parameter in reading system, not only allow for the capacity unbalance impact on power supply reliability, also contemplate the impact on power supply reliability of equipment fault and grid structure, independent micro-grid electric power system power supply reliability can be assessed more accurately, various energy resources be can more effectively realize complementary, energy utilization rate and the power supply reliability of whole system improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of independent micro-grid electric power system and Reliability Estimation Method thereof, particularly relate to
A kind of Reliability Estimation Method being applicable to balance based on trend.
Background technology
Along with the continuous growth of energy demand, greenhouse effect is further obvious, and utilize wind energy, solar energy etc. can
Renewable source of energy generation technology rapidly becomes the current reply energy and the important means of environmental crisis.Independent micro-grid supplies
Polytype distributed generation unit can be combined by electricity system, effectively realizes various energy resources complementary,
Improve energy utilization rate and the power supply reliability of whole system.In remote and Island, independent micro-grid is powered
System is one of effective means solving its powerup issue.
Regenerative resource often has randomness, intermittent feature.Set in the planning of independent micro-grid electric power system
In meter, while making full use of regenerative resource, how to ensure that the power supply reliability of system is to need to pay close attention to
One of key issue.Existing planing method is generally only capacity unbalance degree is referred to as the reliability of system
Mark.For considering equipment fault impact further, need to add reliability assessment link in planning and designing, adopt
The reliability level of system is evaluated with suitable reliability estimation method.
But, the reliability estimation method of current independent micro-grid electric power system is basic only around in autonomous system
Generating-load capacity balance carries out reliability assessment, it is impossible to meet the planning and designing demand of independent micro-grid.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of Reliability Evaluation independent micro-grid more accurately and supplies
Electricity system and Reliability Estimation Method thereof.
Along with the increase of independent micro-grid electric power system scale, it should also be taken into account that grid structure in reliability assessment
Impact, in existing independent micro-grid electric power system Reliability Evaluation, do not consider that equipment fault brings
Impact, owing to grid structure is complicated, load bus is more, middle pressure independent micro-grid electric power system is structurally
Closer to the distribution system containing distributed power source.Currently exist some for the distribution containing distributed power source
Systematic research, on the basis of considering system network shelf structure, analyzes distributed power source and connects with energy storage device
Enter the impact on distribution Power System Reliability.But except for the difference that, the distribution system containing distributed power source is the most grid-connected
Run, and independent micro-grid electric power system is in off-network state all the time, needs the power supply fully relying in microgrid
Realize power balance.This feature determines the voltage problem of middle pressure independent micro-grid electric power system and compares distribution system
The most prominent, due to higher resistive in distribution line, therefore voltage is simultaneously by active balance and reactive balance
Double influence.And in this, existing method the most only considers intrasystem active balance, have ignored and be
The interior reactive balance of system and the voltage problem brought thereof.
The technical solution used in the present invention is as follows:
A kind of independent micro-grid electric power system, it is characterised in that: independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different
Feeder zone;Master control power supply uses concentrates access way, is connected from different feeder zone through transformator;Also
Including renewable energy power generation unit and or energy storage device, be arranged on high voltage side of transformer be connected bus on or
It is arranged on inside feeder zone.
Also include automatic safety device, be arranged on high voltage side of transformer and feeder zone entrance, when fault
Automatically cut off the connection of fault zone and other region of electric power system.
Also include Manual isolation switch, be arranged in the branch of electric power system grid structure, for respective negative
The excision operation of lotus point.
A kind of Reliability Estimation Method based on above-mentioned independent micro-grid electric power system, including capacity unbalance
Reliability Evaluation, it is characterised in that: also include equipment fault Reliability Evaluation;Concrete grammar walks
Suddenly it is:
One, independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different feeder zone, regenerative resource in reading system
The power-supply device operational factor of generating set, non-renewable energy resources generating set and energy storage device and fault ginseng
Number, and the basic Power Flow Information of feeder zone and fault message;
Two, according to all power-supply devices and the fault parameter of feeder zone, to described power-supply device and feeder line district
Territory carries out moment state sampling, obtains the state change cyclic sequence of described power-supply device and feeder zone;
Three, described state change cyclic sequence is combined with the topological structure of system, obtain system each imitative
Normal connected region under true step-length;
Four, according to the schedulable power type in the normal connected region of described system, coordinated operation strategy is selected
The preliminary active balance judging system, and record the unlatching number of units of non-renewable energy resources generating set, energy storage dress
The charge-discharge electric power put and the active power dispatch information of the excess power of renewable energy power generation unit;
Five, according to described active power dispatch information, Load flow calculation is utilized to obtain active power vacancy and the nothing of system
Merit power shortage;
Six, according to described system active power vacancy and reactive power vacancy, to non-renewable energy resources electromotor
The dispatch command of group and energy-storage battery is modified, and calls the load reduction table of interruptible load, is
Whole load point power-off conditions under each simulation step length in system;
Seven, according to described load point power-off condition under each simulation step length, each load point is added up in each week
Power failure frequency, power off time and power failure amount in phase, and according to described load point region, add up each feedback
Power off time within each cycle of line region and whole system and power failure amount, and then obtain load point, feeder line
Region and three grades of reliability indexs of system.
In described step 2, sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to carry out described moment state sampling.
In described step 7, according to each load point power down mode under each simulation step length and power failure amount, system
Count each load point power failure frequency within each cycle, power off time and power failure amount to refer to as load point reliability
Mark.
In described step 7, according to power down mode, power failure amount and the affiliated feeder zone thereof of described load point,
Obtain each feeder zone power down mode under each simulation step length and power failure amount, and add up each feeder zone often
Average power off time in the individual cycle and average power failure amount are as feeder zone reliability index.
In described step 7, according to power down mode, the power failure amount of described feeder zone, obtain described system and exist
Power down mode under each simulation step length and power failure amount, and add up the average power failure within each cycle of the described system
Time and average power failure amount are as Reliability Index.
The described cycle is 1 year, and described simulation step length is 1 hour.
One compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows: not only allows for capacity unbalance to power supply
The impact of reliability, it is also contemplated that equipment fault and the grid structure impact on power supply reliability, it is possible to more smart
True assessment independent micro-grid electric power system power supply reliability, can more effectively realize various energy resources complementary, improve whole
The energy utilization rate of individual system and power supply reliability.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the system structure schematic diagram of a present invention wherein embodiment.
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet of a Reliability Estimation Method of the present invention wherein embodiment.
Fig. 3 is the hard charging strategy schematic flow sheet of a present invention wherein embodiment.
Fig. 4 be a present invention wherein embodiment accomplish strategic process schematic diagram.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to make the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and reality
Execute example, the present invention is further elaborated.Only should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein
In order to explain the present invention, it is not intended to limit the present invention.
Any feature disclosed in this specification (including any accessory claim, summary and accompanying drawing), removes
Non-specifically describes, all can be by other equivalences or have the alternative features of similar purpose and replaced.That is, remove
Non-specifically describes, and each feature is an example in a series of equivalence or similar characteristics.
As it is shown in figure 1, a kind of independent micro-grid electric power system, independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different
Feeder zone;In this specific embodiment, renewable energy power generation machine is wind-driven generator, non-renewable energy resources
Electromotor is diesel-driven generator;Diesel-driven generator as system master power supply uses concentration access way, warp
Transformator is connected from different feeder zone;Wind-driven generator WT and energy storage device EA is (concrete real at this
Execute in example as batteries to store energy device) it is arranged on the bus that high voltage side of transformer is connected or is arranged on feeder line district
Territory is internal (being arranged on inside feeder zone in this specific embodiment).
In this specific embodiment, it is contemplated that the line fault in transformer fault and feeder zone, transformator
High-pressure side and porch, feeder zone are respectively arranged with automatic safety device.When an error occurs, automatic safety device
Intrasystem irregular operating state can be detected in time, by trip operation rapid disengagement failure region be
Unite the connection in other region, thus realize the isolation of fault zone.
In this specific embodiment, it is inside each feeder zone at tree network, root node and area entry
Automatic safety device is connected, and load point is dispersed in the Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches and the branch of network.Some branch of tree network
It is provided with Manual isolation switch, it would be preferable to support the excision operation of corresponding load point, but does not contains inside each feeder line district
Automatic safety device.
As in figure 2 it is shown, Reliability Estimation Method based on above-mentioned independent micro-grid electric power system, including holding
The uneven Reliability Evaluation of amount, also includes equipment fault Reliability Evaluation;At this specific embodiment
In, with 1 year as cycle, within 1 hour, carrying out reliability assessment for step-length, concrete grammar step is:
One, independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different feeder zone, regenerative resource in reading system
The power-supply device operational factors such as generating set, non-renewable energy resources generating set and energy storage device and fault ginseng
Number, and the basic Power Flow Information of feeder zone and fault message;
In the system shown in figure 1, high voltage side of transformer and porch, each feeder zone are equipped with and automatically protect dress
Put.Under this structure, all elements in feeder zone are all at the protection domain of its porch automatic safety device
In, when any element failure in region, rapid action is made whole feeder line by corresponding automatic safety device
Zone isolation, thus all loads in causing this region have a power failure.When certain region is isolated, in this region
The power supply of all renewable energy power generation equipment and energy storage device is all by cut-out.In sum, in system arbitrarily
The fault of circuit all can be equivalent to the fault in respective feed connection region, thus can be using feeder zone as an entirety
It is modeled, effectively to reduce the time of fault sampling.With the independent micro-grid electric power system shown in Fig. 1 it is
Example, whole system can be divided into 4 regions according to the position of automatic safety device.Region 0 is diesel-driven generator
With the master control power supply area of transformator composition, region 1~3 is different load area.
Two, according to all power-supply devices and the fault parameter of feeder zone, to described power-supply device and feeder line district
Territory carries out moment state sampling, obtains the state change cyclic sequence of described power-supply device and feeder zone;
In this specific embodiment, based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, element each in system is carried out state
Sampling, produces the running status sequence of each element.
Three, described state change cyclic sequence is combined with the topological structure of system, obtain system each imitative
Normal connected region under true step-length;
In sampling generation system after the running status sequence of each power supply and feeder zone, it becomes possible to according to system
Topological structure obtains the system connected region in each moment and (is not i.e. automatically protected the district of device isolation
Territory).As a example by Fig. 1 system, when in system, fault-free occurs, connected region is that whole middle pressure is independent micro-
Net electric power system.When fault occurs in region 0 (transformer fault), all diesel-driven generators all move back
Going out to run, connected region is region 1,2,3, and energy storage device is by the master control power supply temporarily as system.When
When fault occurs in zone 1, separation generator and energy storage device are the most out of service, and connected region is region
0、2、3.When fault occurs in region 2 (or region 3), connected region be 0,1,3 (or 0,1,
2), diesel-driven generator will cooperate with wind-driven generator, energy storage device, to fault-free block supply.
Four, according to the schedulable power type in the normal connected region of described system, coordinated operation strategy is selected
The preliminary active balance judging system, and record the unlatching number of units of non-renewable energy resources generating set, battery
The active power dispatch information of the excess power of charge-discharge electric power and renewable energy power generation unit;
The Real-time Power Flow poised state of system is judged based on system running policy.This specific embodiment is based on having
On the coordinated operation policy grounds of merit balance, it is further proposed that correction strategy based on trend balance is in terms of simultaneously
And active balance and the reactive balance impact on system reliability.
In the independent micro-grid electric power system being originally embodied as exist two kinds of schedulable power supplys: diesel-driven generator and
Batteries to store energy device.According to the selection of schedulable power supply, the coordinated operation strategy of independent micro-grid electric power system
Three classes can be divided into: energy storage scheduling strategy, diesel-driven generator scheduling strategy, the association of energy storage and diesel-driven generator
Adjust scheduling strategy.In view of power failure and the impact of area fault, this specific embodiment is in coordinated operation plan
Count above-mentioned three class situations in slightly simultaneously:
Floating charge strategy: if diesel-driven generator region is isolated by protection device action, system will be with accumulator
Energy storage is as master control power supply, and coordinates wind-driven generator to exert oneself to meet workload demand.Floating charge strategy is used to make
For the operation reserve under energy storage scheduling method, its dispatching principle is: if regenerative resource is exerted oneself and is higher than in system
Workload demand, dump power is energy storage charging, when energy storage maximum charge power can not dissolve dump power,
Surplus power is recorded as regenerative resource and abandons power EP (t);Otherwise, if regenerative resource is exerted oneself low in system
In workload demand, insufficient section is supplemented by energy storage electric discharge.
Strategy without energy storage: if batteries to store energy region is isolated by protection device action, system runs on bavin
Under oily hair motor scheduling strategy.The diesel-driven generator scheduling strategy used is: preferentially utilize development of renewable energy
Electricity is powered to load, and insufficient section is provided by diesel-driven generator.Under this strategy, clean according to this step-length of system
Load condition selects diesel-driven generator to open number of units: if net load is less than 0, one diesel generation of enforced opening
Machine ensures system stable operation, and records regenerative resource and abandon power EP (t);If net load is more than 0, root
Suitable diesel-driven generator is selected to open number of units according to net load value size, if available diesel-driven generator all puts into
Run and still can not meet net load demand, make diesel-driven generator open number of units and send out number of units equal to available bavin.
Hard charging strategy: when in independent micro-grid all the most normally devote oneself to work containing power supply area time, system is in fortune
Need during row to coordinate the relation between diesel-driven generator, renewable energy power generation and energy storage.In order to as far as possible
Reduce the fuel consumption of diesel-driven generator, more fully utilize intrasystem regenerative resource, select firmly to fill
Electricity strategy is as the coordinated operation strategy under this pattern.Under this strategy, diesel-driven generator and batteries to store energy can
Alternate play main power source meets net load demand (system total load and the difference of generated output of renewable energy source), its
Flow process is as shown in Figure 3.
In Fig. 3, P1-P6 represents system net load respectively, counts the net load of system reserve capacity, electric power storage
Pond maximum charge power, accumulator maximum discharge power, diesel generating set EIAJ, diesel-driven generator
Group minimum load (more than 0).This strategy is according to the system net load in this step-length and spare capacity, Yi Jishang
Diesel-driven generator in one step-length is opened number of units and is calculated with energy storage charge-discharge electric power and should open bavin in this step-length and send out
Number of units nt, and then according to system net carry calculation accumulator cell charging and discharging power PbatT (), system abandon ENERGY E P (t)
Etc. index, the correction strategy link for next step provides essential information.It should be noted that in coordinated operation
Strategy do not calculates the scarce delivery of system, but consider in follow-up correction strategy system generating capacity with
Equilibrium relation between workload demand.
Five, according to described merit schedule information, Load flow calculation is utilized to obtain the active power vacancy of system and idle
Power shortage;
Six, according to described system active power vacancy and reactive power vacancy, utilize correction strategy to can not be again
The dispatch command of raw energy generator group and energy-storage battery is modified, and calls the reduction plan of interruptible load
Slightly, whole load point power-off conditions under each simulation step length in system are obtained;
On above-mentioned coordinated operation policy grounds based on active balance, present invention further proposes based on tide
The correction strategy of mobile equilibrium.Correction strategy flow process is as shown in Figure 4:
For calculating system load flow, needing the given node of system, branch road and electromotor information, the present invention selects
Above-mentioned information is stored, in order to trend input information is recombinated with feeder zone for ultimate unit.Need
It is emphasized that two way convertor in energy-storage system of accumulator can run at four quadrants, i.e. it can be
In Converter Capacity limits, absorb according to system requirements or release active power and reactive power.Therefore for
The independent micro-grid electric power system that reactive capability is limited, must count and the nothing of batteries to store energy in its operation reserve
Function power.In addition, it is contemplated that the node voltage brought when renewable energy power generation power is higher than workload demand is lifted
The problem of liter, abandons power in the reduction that meter of the present invention and regenerative resource are exerted oneself, i.e. coordinated operation Policy Result
EP (t) counts in Load flow calculation not as the effective output of wind-driven generator.
In correction strategy, gain merit real-time with system of the instruction that each power supply is issued by independent micro-grid electric power system
Vacancy Plack(t) and no-power vacancy QlackT () is relevant, its calculation is as follows:
Plack(t)=max (0, Ps.re(t)-Ps.max(t)) (1)
Qlack(t)=max (0, Qs.re(t)-Qs.max(t)) (2)
In formula, Ps.re(t)、Qs.reT () meritorious, idle is exerted oneself for balance in power flow solutions that node should provide;
Ps.max(t)、Qs.maxT () is that the maximum that can be provided by of main power source is meritorious, reactive power, when diesel-driven generator or storage
When energy system is as main power source, it calculates as follows:
In formula, Pdis.maxT () is the maximum discharge power of energy-storage system;SdgFor diesel oil Rated motor capacity;Scon
For energy storage two way convertor rated capacity;Pbat(t) and PdgT () is respectively energy storage device, diesel-driven generator is gained merit
Exerting oneself, their initial value is given by coordinated operation strategy, and constantly updates in correction strategy.
With meritorious vacancy Plack(t), no-power vacancy QlackT () is foundation, the correction strategy principle that the present invention proposes
As follows: when energy-storage system is as main power source, if there is power shortage, open the diesel oil of an armed state
Electromotor makes up this vacancy;When diesel-driven generator is as main power source, if there is power shortage, preferentially adjust
This vacancy is made up with meritorious, the reactive energy of energy-storage system, when energy-storage system is sufficient to compensate for vacancy,
Reselection is opened the diesel-driven generator of an armed state and is made up this vacancy;If all power supplys are the most in system
It is in full hair-like state, but still suffers from power shortage, now need to call load and cut down strategy.
Described load cuts down strategy: determine the interruptible load in independent micro-grid electric power system, and according to having
Workload amount from small to large and or is cut down according to significance level sequential build load from lightweight to heavyweight
Table.
Described load is cut down strategy and is also included, when carrying out load and cutting down, with described load reduction table for depending on
According to, the most meritorious and load or burden without work of excision interruptible load point, to currently after excision each time
Whether meritorious total load and the idle total load of system are updated, rejudge master control source nominal capacity and can
Meet the system total load after updating, then can cut down termination, system resumes power by load, record and can interrupt
The excision total amount of load, otherwise continue executing with load cut down strategy, until meet described judgement or all can in
Till disconnected load is the most cut.
Described load is cut down strategy and is also included, if still can not meet described judgement after excising all interruptible loads
Foundation, in system, all load point all have a power failure.
In view of the impact of grid structure, all in each feeder zone it is connected with main line through Manual isolation switch
Load point is regarded as interruptible load, can be cut when generation capacity deficiency in load cuts down strategy
Remove.Under trend equilibrium condition, the meritorious of interruptible load point and reactive power should be paid close attention to simultaneously.This is concrete
Embodiment only considers single load type, and such as all load is resident load, and therefore load is cut down suitable
Sequence is only relevant with loading.For improving analog rate, heuristic load is taked to cut down strategy herein: first false
Fixed all load point are not cut down, and call coordinated operation strategy and correction strategy and carry out the operation shape of analog systems
State.When there is the situation of system generation capacity deficiency, the interruptible load of load total amount minimum is preferentially cut
Removing, repeating this process until meeting following formula:
In formula, SmpT () is the rated capacity of current system main power source.If this formula meets, show that system can be passed through
Load is cut down strategy and is restored electricity, and now system blackout time LT (t) is recorded as 0, power failure amount UL (t) record
Total amount L is cut down for interruptible loadcut(t)。
It should be noted that due to interruptible load Limited Number in system, take load to cut down strategy not
Necessarily it is able to ensure that system reaches power balance.If interruptible load is still unsatisfactory for formula (5) after all cutting down
Requirement, whole system will have a power failure less than workload demand completely because of generating capacity.The now system blackout time
LT (t) is recorded as 1 hour, and power failure amount UL (t) is recorded as Real-time Load L (t) of whole system.
Seven, according to described load point power-off condition under each simulation step length, each load point is added up in each week
Power failure frequency, power off time and power failure amount in phase, and according to described load point region, add up each feedback
Power off time within each cycle of line region and whole system and power failure amount, and then obtain load point, feeder line
Region and three grades of reliability indexs of system.
Obtain each load point within a cycle after the power-off condition of each step-length, respective feed connection region real-time
State is just determined.Cut down the effect of strategy in view of load, judge in each step-length according to following method
The state of feeder zone: to any feeder zone, if the power supply of the most all load point is all interrupted, this feeder line
Region is in malfunction, and power off time is recorded as a step-length, and it is total that power failure amount is recorded as region internal loading
Amount;If wherein only having the power failure of interruptible load point, this feeder zone is in risk status, does not remember and stops
The electricity time, power failure amount is recorded as interruptible load and cuts down total amount;If all load point normal power supply, this feeder lines
It is all 0 that region is in normal condition, power off time and power failure amount.
Real-time status based on feeder zone, the real-time status of system can also determine uniquely: if in system
All load area runs on normal condition, then system also runs on normal condition;If having any negative in system
Lotus region is in malfunction, then system is also at malfunction.On this basis, carried reliability assessment
Method can not only obtain power off time and power failure frequency, the power off time phase of each load area of each load point
Hope (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (LOEE) index, additionally it is possible to obtain whole system LOLE,
The indexs such as LOEE, System average interruption frequency (SAIFI), average power off time (SAIDI):
LTsys(t)=max (LTi(t)) (10)
In formula, subscript i is expressed as the correlative of feeder zone i;Subscript sys is expressed as the correlative of system;
LT (t), UL (t) represent power off time and power failure amount in t step-length respectively;Uj(t)、EjT () represents t step-length respectively in
The power off time of load point j and power failure amount;λj、UjAnd NjRepresent the power failure frequency that load point j is annual respectively
Rate, power off time and number of users;T represents the periodicity (i.e. year number) that reliability assessment experiences;ZiRepresent
Load point set in the i of feeder zone;S represents the load point set in whole system.
In the present invention, the capacity unbalance impact on power supply reliability is not only allowed for, it is also contemplated that equipment fault
With the grid structure impact on power supply reliability, it is possible to power can for assessment independent micro-grid electric power system more accurately
By property, can more effectively realize various energy resources complementary, the energy utilization rate and the power supply that improve whole system are reliable
Property.
Claims (8)
1. a reliability estimation method for the power supply of independent micro-grid electric power system,
In independent micro-grid electric power system, independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different feeder zone;Master control power supply uses concentrates access way, is connected from different feeder zone through transformator;Also include renewable energy power generation unit and energy storage device, be arranged on the bus that high voltage side of transformer is connected or be arranged on inside feeder zone;
In concrete appraisal procedure, including capacity unbalance Reliability Evaluation, also include equipment fault Reliability Evaluation;Concrete grammar step is:
One, independent micro-grid electric power system is divided into different feeder zone, the power-supply device operational factor of renewable energy power generation unit, non-renewable energy resources generating set and energy storage device and fault parameter in reading system, and the basic Power Flow Information of feeder zone and fault message;
Two, according to all power-supply devices and the fault parameter of feeder zone, described power-supply device and feeder zone are carried out moment state sampling, obtain the state change cyclic sequence of described power-supply device and feeder zone;
Three, described state change cyclic sequence is combined with the topological structure of system, obtain the system normal connected region under each simulation step length;
Four, according to the schedulable power type in the normal connected region of described system, select coordinated operation strategy tentatively to judge the active balance of system, and record the active power dispatch information of the excess power of the unlatching number of units of non-renewable energy resources generating set, the charge-discharge electric power of energy storage device and renewable energy power generation unit;
Five, according to described active power dispatch information, Load flow calculation is utilized to obtain active power vacancy and the reactive power vacancy of system;
Six, according to described system active power vacancy and reactive power vacancy, the dispatch command of non-renewable energy resources generating set and energy storage device is modified, and call the load reduction table of interruptible load, obtain whole load point power-off conditions under each simulation step length in system;
Seven, according to described load point power-off condition under each simulation step length, add up each load point power failure frequency within each cycle, power off time and power failure amount, and according to described load point region, add up each feeder zone and the whole system power off time within each cycle and power failure amount, and then obtain load point, feeder zone and three grades of reliability indexs of system.
Reliability Estimation Method the most according to claim 1, in described step 2, utilizes sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to carry out described moment state sampling.
Reliability Estimation Method the most according to claim 1 and 2, in described step 7, according to each load point power down mode under each simulation step length and power failure amount, add up each load point power failure frequency within each cycle, power off time and power failure amount as load point reliability index.
Reliability Estimation Method the most according to claim 1, in described step 7, power down mode, power failure amount and affiliated feeder zone thereof according to described load point, obtain each feeder zone power down mode under each simulation step length and power failure amount, and add up each feeder zone average power off time within each cycle and average power failure amount as feeder zone reliability index.
Reliability Estimation Method the most according to claim 1, in described step 7, power down mode according to described feeder zone, power failure amount, obtain described system power down mode under each simulation step length and power failure amount, and add up the described system average power off time within each cycle and average power failure amount as Reliability Index.
Reliability Estimation Method the most according to claim 1, the described cycle is 1 year, and described simulation step length is 1 hour.
Reliability Estimation Method the most according to claim 1, described electric power system also includes automatic safety device, is arranged on high voltage side of transformer and feeder zone entrance, automatically cuts off the connection of fault zone and other region of electric power system when fault.
8. according to the Reliability Estimation Method described in claim 1 or 7, described electric power system also includes Manual isolation switch, is arranged in the branch of electric power system grid structure, for operating the excision of corresponding load point.
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