CN104570161A - Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data - Google Patents
Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN104570161A CN104570161A CN201510031420.0A CN201510031420A CN104570161A CN 104570161 A CN104570161 A CN 104570161A CN 201510031420 A CN201510031420 A CN 201510031420A CN 104570161 A CN104570161 A CN 104570161A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- point
- typhoon
- cyclone
- data
- forecast
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 title abstract 2
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 41
- 125000001475 halogen functional group Chemical group 0.000 claims description 23
- 238000009835 boiling Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000002123 temporal effect Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 5
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000005436 troposphere Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000013316 zoning Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000002093 peripheral effect Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- JTJMJGYZQZDUJJ-UHFFFAOYSA-N phencyclidine Chemical class C1CCCCN1C1(C=2C=CC=CC=2)CCCCC1 JTJMJGYZQZDUJJ-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 5
- 230000003203 everyday effect Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000010354 integration Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000009825 accumulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000000739 chaotic effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004891 communication Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005008 domestic process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000014759 maintenance of location Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000006855 networking Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012827 research and development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000717 retained effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000000630 rising effect Effects 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
Landscapes
- Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Atmospheric Sciences (AREA)
- Biodiversity & Conservation Biology (AREA)
- Ecology (AREA)
- Environmental Sciences (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
- Instructional Devices (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses an automatic typhoon forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid point forecasting data, which integrates three functions of typhoon path forecasting, landing point forecasting and typhoon intensity forecasting. On the basis of obtaining typhoon EC/JMA forecast data, cyclone centers are found out according to cyclone wind field structure characteristics, and cyclone centers which do not meet conditions are removed by judging the wind field structures and circulation strength of all cyclones. And then obtaining the strength characteristics of the wind ring around the center according to a polar coordinate interpolation method. The method simultaneously considers the situation that a plurality of cyclone centers occur in the typhoon-prone period. Under the condition of obtaining the typhoon path forecast information, combining with the coastline data, calculating coastline points in 0.5 longitude and latitude range around the intersection point of the forecast path and the coastline as landing points of the typhoon path.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to typhoon robotization forecasting procedure, particularly relate to a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data.
Background technology
In Activities of Tropical Cyclone process, be often attended by blast, heavy rain, billow and storm tide.For alleviating the major disaster that tropical cyclone brings and the loss caused, need to carry out accurate forecast to the path of tropical cyclone and intensity.In the research of typhoon generation development, in research in the past, the full Wind Data of many employings or Value of Remote Sensing Data, and differentiate boiling pot in conjunction with the method for eye recognition, but this method is often with certain subjective error, and work is quite loaded down with trivial details.Along with typhoon detection means abundant gradually, typhoon theoretical level progressively improves, the fast development of computing power and Numerical Prediction Models, typhoon track develops into gradually based on numerical forecasting, with man-machine dialogue system system for platform, the forecasting technique route of the multiple data of integrated application and method.
And intensity of typhoon forecast aspect, make slow progress so far.What in practical business, account for important guiding status at present is still statistics specialty.Japan and the U.S. have carried out the business using Numerical Prediction Method forecast intensity change in typhoon, but effect is undesirable.The domestic method about intensity of typhoon numerical forecasting is not overripened yet.
As business system, the correlative study work that some units and department carried out, as Wu Jinta etc. establishes Fujian Province's typhoon protection landscape real-time system for monitoring and pre-warning, this system catches typhoon landscape emphatically and the realization of hardware construction and communication networking plan has been carried out in forecast aspect, and is Typhoon Route Forecast, early warning etc. that we pay close attention to and relates to.The GIS technology such as Jiang Chunfa establishes Xiamen City's typhoon tracking and early warning system, at typhoon tracking and monitoring, the more rich aspect of cartographic information is more outstanding, but in the foundation that this system is mainly limited to typhoon database and display application in Geographic Information System, function still can not meet the needs of meteorological department's typhoon business.
Summary of the invention
Manually forecast typhoon identification error in order to the traditional meteorological department in prior art that solves and the problem such as process is loaded down with trivial details, the invention provides a kind of robotization forecasting procedure that Typhoon Route Forecast product, solar or lunar halo forecast of intensity product and debarkation point forecast model products integration are provided.
In order to solve the problem, the technical solution used in the present invention is:
Based on the typhoon robotization forecasting procedure of EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, comprise: step one, Typhoon Route Forecast step, the cyclone center's point engraved during by finding forecast, carries out polar coordinates interpolation, obtains paracentral maximum wind velocity, according to the data frequency received, generate corresponding typhoon track;
Step 2, intensity of typhoon forecast step, is interpolated to polar coordinates by cyclone center's point natural coordinates of generation, determines the air speed value in central point peripheral extent;
Step 3, Landed Typhoon point determining step, carries out Distance Judgment by the typhoon track of generation and shore line data, retain the intersection point with shore line, reject the point not meeting the condition that logs in, obtain the logging zone scope of debarkation point, and determine the landing time scope of debarkation point.
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, described Typhoon Route Forecast step comprises:
Step 1a, determines forecast data generation area, and EC Grid data used is spaced apart 2.5 longitudes and latitudes, and JMA Grid data is spaced apart 1.25 longitudes and latitudes;
Step 1b, all cyclone centers engraved when finding out each forecast.Suppose that each lattice point center is center, zoning (cyclone center), be " one circle " with the lattice point of central point 4 angle point, carry out judgement 2 ~ 3 from inside to outside to enclose, 4 lattice points adjacent with central point are first lap, continuous 4 meet desirable cyclonic circulation condition, then this point is cyclone center, and retaining this point is the judgement of boiling pot;
Step 1c, asks cyclone pericenter maximum wind velocity value.Carry out polar coordinates interpolation according to cyclone center's point longitude and latitude, air speed value under required natural coordinates, obtain cyclone center and put polar coordinates air speed value within the scope of outside 500km, the paracentral maximum wind velocity value of the cyclone that after interpolation, on polar coordinates, namely maximum wind velocity requires;
Step 1d, judge complete typhoon track, article one, complete Typhoon Route Forecast, undertaken judging by cyclone center's point of continuous several forecasting period, if cyclone center's point close together of adjacent two periods, meet the distance range of same typhoon, giving tacit consent to these 2 points is point on same path.Contrary 2 points are distant, then giving tacit consent to is wherein the point in Article 2 typhoon track, if in this forecasting process, this point is an isolated moment point, then get rid of the possibility of this paths.
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, step 2, solar or lunar halo grade around central point, cyclone center's point natural coordinates of generation is interpolated to polar coordinates, determines the air speed value around central point within the scope of 500km;
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, Landed Typhoon point determining step, comprising:
3a, shore line data is chosen, in order to judge whether the development of typhoon has impact to inland, need the shore line data chosen for typhoon track, data used comprise the latitude and longitude information file in shore line, and the significant lattice point file of land and ocean, 0 is ocean, and 1 is land;
3b, debarkation point judges, first carries out Distance Judgment by between each cyclone center's point and shore line point, if distance is less than or equal to 0.2 longitude and latitude, then thinks that this cyclone center's point may for logging in point; Then by the significant file of land and ocean, judge this cyclone center's point flag states 1/0 around, if be 0 before this cyclone center's point, after be 1, then can judge that this cyclone center's point logs in.2 cyclone center's point lines before and after this cyclone center's point in typhoon track are set up straight-line equation, if have intersection point with shore line between 2 cyclone center's points, then judge that this intersection point is debarkation point, the intersection point got closest to land point is debarkation point, obtains shore line point around debarkation point within the scope of 0.5 longitude and latitude as logging zone scope; Then by judging that this login point accounts for the distance proportion between 2 cyclone center's points, the time range logging in point is determined;
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, also comprise in step 1b: for more weak cyclone, adopt said method can judge multiple central point, record the initial solar or lunar halo satisfied condition of each cyclone center's point, the initial solar or lunar halo of which central point is near center, then retaining this point is cyclone center's point, and all the other cyclone center's points are removed.If significantly two division center appears in cyclone simultaneously, judge that whether Liang Ge cyclone center's point is distant, if Liang Ge cyclone center's point distance is more than more than 5 lattice points, then retain two central points simultaneously, judge the situation occurring binary typhoons.
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, described EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast material form is 2-D data (X/Y), wherein EC data lattice point is 145*37, JMA data is 113*73, all deposit with micaps form, EC data temporal resolution be 24h once, JMA data temporal resolution be first 48 hours every 6 hours once with latter 36 hours every 12 hours once.
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, described step 1a, determine forecast data generation area, for the LOWER TROPOSPHERE of tropical cyclone of northwestern Pacific Ocean multi-activity in low latitude, therefore data scope is restricted to 0 ~ 50 ° of N, within the scope of 100 ~ 180 ° of E.
Aforesaid a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, according to weather report data generation area, shore line data scope is 5 ~ 45 ° of N, 100 ~ 125 ° of E.
The beneficial effect that the present invention reaches: the present invention utilizes the model predictions product (EC/JMA) of typhoon warning center, provides the robotization forecast of Typhoon Route Forecast product, solar or lunar halo forecast of intensity product and debarkation point forecast model products integration.By the research and development of the method, significantly lifting region typhoon forecast business and real-time disaster alarm ability.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the one-piece construction figure of the typhoon robotization forecast platform of EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data
Fig. 2 is the wind field structure of desirable cyclone, and in figure, the yardstick of cyclone meets the yardstick condition of tropical cyclone.
Fig. 3 calculates wind field cyclone center schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 is boiling pot location schematic diagram.
Fig. 5 is a Typhoon Process course guidance schematic diagram.
Fig. 6 is solar or lunar halo graded forecast schematic diagram.
Fig. 7 is debarkation point forecast schematic diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the invention will be further described.Following examples only for technical scheme of the present invention is clearly described, and can not limit the scope of the invention with this.
As shown in Figure 1, the typhoon robotization forecast platform based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data comprises three submodules: Typhoon Route Forecast module, intensity of typhoon forecast module, Landed Typhoon point forecast module.
Typhoon Route Forecast module, comprises the real-time access of data, boiling pot judges, center maximum wind velocity judges, and the generation of product and issue.Choose the full Wind Data of 850hpa (data of one of them height layer in dimensional wind data usual in meteorological research, corresponding sea level on the average is about 1500 meters), every day, fixed point was downloaded from observatory.The data downloaded are carried out cyclone center's judgement.The feature that cyclone has counterclockwise wind field, circulation structure closes in the Northern Hemisphere.The wind field of desirable cyclone is symmetrical, and the transmeridional wind direction in center is respectively south/southeaster and north/northeaster, and north-south is respectively west/northwester and east/southeaster, generally the yardstick of cyclone is less, central pressure is lower, and intensity is stronger, and wind field structure more meets ideal conditions (Fig. 2).According to cyclone feature, synchronization may find out multiple cyclone center, needs the wind field structure by judging all cyclones and circulation strength, removes the cyclone center do not satisfied condition.The cyclone center of final reservation, carries out polar coordinates interpolation, obtains paracentral maximum wind velocity.According to the data frequency received, generate corresponding typhoon track product and issue.
Intensity of typhoon forecast module, comprises polar coordinates interpolation, solar or lunar halo grade is determined, and the generation of product and issue.Cyclone center's point natural coordinates of generation is interpolated to polar coordinates, determines the wind speed of 500km scope around central point.
Landed Typhoon point module, comprises the acquisition of shore line data, and shore line Distance Judgment, debarkation point time judge, and the generation of product and issue.The typhoon track product of generation and shore line data are carried out Distance Judgment, retains the intersection point with shore line, reject the point not meeting the condition that logs in.Get point around debarkation point within the scope of 0.5 longitude and latitude as debarkation point, and determine the landing time scope of debarkation point.
In order to finally obtain the product forecast based on the typhoon robotization of EC/JMA data, drop into operational use, the present invention is integrated with Typhoon Route Forecast, intensity of typhoon forecast, and three modules are forecast in debarkation point, final generation typhoon robotization forecast model products.
Introduce the forecast step of a module below
1, Typhoon Route Forecast step
EC/JMA material form is 2-D data (X/Y), and wherein EC data lattice point is 145*37, JMA data is 113*73, all deposits with micaps form.EC data temporal resolution be 24h once, JMA data temporal resolution be first 48 hours every 6 hours once with latter 36 hours every 12 hours once.Conveniently read data, this method uses F90 programming.For each lattice point of Wind Data, all carry out following calculating:
1), generation area is determined.For the LOWER TROPOSPHERE of tropical cyclone of northwestern Pacific Ocean multi-activity in low latitude, therefore data scope is restricted to 0 ~ 50 ° of N, within the scope of 100 ~ 180 ° of E.EC Grid data used is spaced apart 2.5 longitudes and latitudes, and JMA Grid data is spaced apart 1.25 longitudes and latitudes.
2) all cyclone centers engraved when, finding out each forecast.As shown in Figure 3, suppose that each lattice point center is center, zoning (cyclone center), be " one circle " with the lattice point of central point 4 angle point, carry out judgement 2 ~ 3 from inside to outside to enclose, 4 lattice points adjacent with central point are first lap, continuous 4 meet desirable cyclonic circulation condition, then this point is cyclone center, and retaining this point is the judgement of boiling pot.
Tropical cyclone the formation initial stage and latter stage circulation yardstick more weak, wind field structure is often asymmetric, center wind field is sometimes comparatively chaotic, for avoiding yardstick to satisfy condition and the more weak cyclone of circulation, guarantee first these cyclone centers to be retained, more progressively reject by a few step judgement below the cyclone center do not satisfied condition.For more weak cyclone, above method often can judge multiple cyclone center point (adjacent two lattice points of possibility all meet above condition), therefore also needs to correct further.Correction method is the initial solar or lunar halo satisfied condition recording each cyclone center's point, and the initial solar or lunar halo of which cyclone center's point near center, then retains this cyclone center's point, and all the other cyclone center's points are removed.Such as adjacent 2 points, the initial solar or lunar halo of point 1 the 3rd circle for satisfying condition, the initial solar or lunar halo of point 2 the 2nd circle for satisfying condition, then retention point 2 removes point 1.The foundation of such judgement is near cyclone center, and its wind field cyclonic circulation feature significantly (Fig. 4).If there is significantly two division center in cyclone, judge that whether Liang Ge cyclone center's point is distant, such as whether Liang Ge cyclone center's point distance is more than more than 5 lattice points, if exceed, then satisfy condition and retain Liang Ge cyclone center point simultaneously, judge the situation occurring binary typhoons.
3), centering point maximum wind velocity value.Boiling pot maximum wind velocity, polar coordinates interpolation is carried out by cyclone center's point, specific practice is, first put within the scope of outside 500km in cyclone center, obtain natural coordinates convert polar coordinates under the side-play amount through broadwise, the accumulation amount of side-play amount latitude and longitude value corresponding to central point is the longitude and latitude size under polar coordinates.Corresponding polar coordinates air speed value, is completed by polar coordinates interpolation algorithm, such as, by wind speed corresponding on an EC Forecast Mode 37*145 lattice point, is converted to the wind speed size under corresponding polar coordinates longitude and latitude.The maximum wind velocity i.e. maximum wind velocity value of the cyclone center of our requirement on polar coordinates after interpolation.
4), complete typhoon track is judged.As shown in Figure 5, article one, complete Typhoon Route Forecast is undertaken judging by cyclone center's point of continuous several forecasting period, if cyclone center's point close together of adjacent two periods, meet the distance range of same typhoon, giving tacit consent to these 2 cyclone center's points is point on same path.Such as whether distance is within 5 lattice points, encloses same typhoon, if satisfy condition more than more than 5 lattice points, retains two central points simultaneously, judge the situation that may occur binary typhoons if judge in 5 lattice points.
Contrary 2 cyclone center's points are distant, then give tacit consent to one of them and put as the point in Article 2 typhoon track.If in this forecasting process, this point is an isolated moment point, then get rid of the possibility of this paths.By the Distance Judgment that cyclone center puts, obtain a fullpath in this forecast moment, and distinguished the impact of binary typhoons.
2. intensity of typhoon forecast
1) cyclone center's point solar or lunar halo grade, is determined.As shown in Figure 6, the cyclone center's point air speed value found out for said method carry out a polar coordinates interpolation, namely to obtain around this central point solar or lunar halo size within the scope of 500km.
3. debarkation point forecast
1), shore line data is chosen.In order to judge whether the development of typhoon has impact to inland, needing the path product generated for typhoon path module, judging whether forecast path logs in shore line, and the time etc. of debarkation point.The shore line data scope chosen is 5 ~ 45 ° of N, 100 ~ 125 ° of E, and data used comprise the latitude and longitude information file in shore line, and the significant lattice point file of land and ocean (0 is ocean, and 1 is land).
2) debarkation point judges.First carrying out Distance Judgment by between each cyclone center's point and shore line point, if distance is less than or equal to 0.2 longitude and latitude, then thinking that this cyclone center's point may for logging in point.Then by the significant file of land and ocean, judge this cyclone center's point flag states 1/0 around, if be that is 0 before this cyclone center's point, after be 1, then can judge that this point logs in.2 cyclone center's points before and after this cyclone center's point of forecast path are set up straight-line equation, if having intersection point with shore line between these 2 cyclone center's points, then judge that this intersection point is debarkation point, the intersection point got closest to land point is debarkation point.Obtain shore line point around debarkation point within the scope of 0.5 longitude and latitude as logging zone scope (Fig. 7, gray area is registered scope).Then by judging that this debarkation point accounts for the distance proportion between 2 cyclone center's points, the time range logging in point is determined.
The operation of EC/JMA typhoon forecast robotization is realized through the algorithm process of 3 modules.In day to day operation, the every day operation of JMA Forecast Mode 4 times, comprises 2 points, 8 points, 14 points, and 20: 4 time points.The every day operation of EC Forecast Mode 2 times, comprises early and late 20 points at 8.Finally obtain the typhoon track document product of txt form, cyclone center's point solar or lunar halo grade products around, and debarkation point information products.
Typhoon Route Forecast product to call time name with rising of data, and comprised and having called time, typhoon number number, calls time in advance, latitude, longitude, maximum wind velocity, maximum wind power grade, weather system grade.Maximum wind power grade is forecast from 7 grades.
The product of solar or lunar halo is then automatically deposited in through algorithm and is called time in the file of name to rise, and distinguish binary typhoons, such as there are 2 typhoons in current typhoon forecast path, then these two typhoon solar or lunar halo are deposited in file 1 and file 2 respectively, wherein solar or lunar halo data to sort name, such as 1.txt in the mode that the time goes forward one by one; 2.txt; 3.txt ...The discharge order of solar or lunar halo data is: latitude, longitude, wind scale.Wherein, less than 6 grades wind speed represent with class 6.
Debarkation point information products comprised call time, initially call time in advance in typhoon number number, latitude, longitude, debarkation point, debarkation point stops calling time in advance, maximum wind velocity, maximum wind power grade, weather system grade.
More than show and describe ultimate principle of the present invention, principal character and advantage.The technician of the industry should understand; the present invention is not restricted to the described embodiments; what describe in above-described embodiment and instructions just illustrates principle of the present invention; without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention; the present invention also has various changes and modifications, and these changes and improvements all fall in the claimed scope of the invention.Application claims protection domain is defined by appending claims and equivalent thereof.
Claims (8)
1. based on the typhoon robotization forecasting procedure of EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data, it is characterized in that, comprise: step one, Typhoon Route Forecast step, the cyclone center's point engraved during by finding forecast, carries out polar coordinates interpolation, obtains paracentral maximum wind velocity, according to the data frequency received, generate corresponding typhoon track;
Step 2, intensity of typhoon forecast step, is interpolated to polar coordinates by cyclone center's point natural coordinates of generation, determines the solar or lunar halo intensity in central point peripheral extent;
Step 3, Landed Typhoon point determining step, carries out Distance Judgment by the typhoon track of generation and shore line data, retain the intersection point with shore line, reject the point not meeting the condition that logs in, obtain the logging zone scope of debarkation point, and determine the landing time scope of debarkation point.
2. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described Typhoon Route Forecast step comprises:
Step 1a, determines forecast data generation area, and EC Grid data used is spaced apart 2.5 longitudes and latitudes, and JMA Grid data is spaced apart 1.25 longitudes and latitudes;
Step 1b, all cyclone centers engraved when finding out each forecast;
Suppose that each lattice point center is center, zoning (cyclone center), be " one circle " with the lattice point of central point 4 angle point, carry out judgement 2 ~ 3 from inside to outside to enclose, 4 lattice points adjacent with central point are first lap, continuous 4 meet desirable cyclonic circulation condition, then this point is cyclone center, and retaining this point is the judgement of boiling pot;
Step 1c, asks cyclone pericenter maximum wind velocity value;
Carry out polar coordinates interpolation according to cyclone center's point longitude and latitude, air speed value under required natural coordinates, obtain cyclone center and put polar coordinates air speed value within the scope of outside 500km, the paracentral maximum wind velocity value of the cyclone that after interpolation, on polar coordinates, namely maximum wind velocity requires;
Step 1d, judge complete typhoon track, article one, complete Typhoon Route Forecast, undertaken judging by cyclone center's point of continuous several forecasting period, if cyclone center's point close together of adjacent two periods, meet the distance range of same typhoon, giving tacit consent to these 2 points is point on same path;
Contrary 2 points are distant, then giving tacit consent to is wherein the point in Article 2 typhoon track, if in this forecasting process, this point is an isolated moment point, then get rid of the possibility of this paths.
3. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, step 2, determine cyclone center's point solar or lunar halo grade, carry out polar coordinates interpolation according to cyclone center's point, determine the solar or lunar halo size within the scope of around 500km.
4. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, Landed Typhoon point determining step, comprising:
3a, shore line data is chosen, in order to judge whether the development of typhoon has impact to inland, need the shore line data chosen for typhoon track, data used comprise the latitude and longitude information file in shore line, and the significant lattice point file of land and ocean, 0 is ocean, and 1 is land;
3b, debarkation point judges, first carries out Distance Judgment by between each cyclone center's point and shore line point, if distance is less than or equal to 0.2 longitude and latitude, then thinks that this cyclone center's point may for logging in point; Then by the significant file of land and ocean, judge this cyclone center's point flag states 1/0 around, if be 0 before this cyclone center's point, after be 1, then can judge that this cyclone center's point logs in;
2 cyclone center's point lines before and after this cyclone center's point in typhoon track are set up straight-line equation, if have intersection point with shore line between 2 cyclone center's points, then judge that this intersection point is debarkation point, the intersection point got closest to land point is debarkation point, obtains shore line point around debarkation point within the scope of 0.5 longitude and latitude as logging zone scope; Then by judging that this login point accounts for the distance proportion between 2 cyclone center's points, the time range logging in point is determined.
5. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 4, it is characterized in that, also comprise in step 1b: for more weak cyclone, adopt said method can judge multiple central point, record the initial solar or lunar halo satisfied condition of each cyclone center's point, the initial solar or lunar halo of which central point is near center, then retaining this point is cyclone center's point, and all the other cyclone center's points are removed;
If significantly two division center appears in cyclone simultaneously, judge that whether Liang Ge cyclone center's point is distant, if Liang Ge cyclone center's point distance is more than more than 5 lattice points, then retain two central points simultaneously, judge the situation occurring binary typhoons.
6. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, described EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast material form is 2-D data, wherein EC data lattice point is 145*37, JMA data is 113*73, all deposit with micaps form, EC data temporal resolution be 24h once, JMA data temporal resolution be first 48 hours every 6 hours once with latter 36 hours every 12 hours once.
7. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 6, it is characterized in that, described step 1a, determine forecast data generation area, for the LOWER TROPOSPHERE of tropical cyclone of northwestern Pacific Ocean multi-activity in low latitude, therefore data scope is restricted to 0 ~ 50 ° of N, within the scope of 100 ~ 180 ° of E.
8. a kind of typhoon robotization forecasting procedure based on EC/JMA whole world lattice point forecast data according to claim 7, it is characterized in that, according to weather report data generation area, shore line data scope is 5 ~ 45 ° of N, 100 ~ 125 ° of E.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201510031420.0A CN104570161B (en) | 2015-01-21 | 2015-01-21 | Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201510031420.0A CN104570161B (en) | 2015-01-21 | 2015-01-21 | Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN104570161A true CN104570161A (en) | 2015-04-29 |
| CN104570161B CN104570161B (en) | 2017-09-15 |
Family
ID=53086675
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201510031420.0A Active CN104570161B (en) | 2015-01-21 | 2015-01-21 | Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN104570161B (en) |
Cited By (10)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105182450A (en) * | 2015-10-15 | 2015-12-23 | 成都信息工程大学 | Short-time early warning system for severe convection weather |
| CN109271474A (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2019-01-25 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | A kind of Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone method based on grid big data statistical method |
| CN109444989A (en) * | 2018-12-28 | 2019-03-08 | 中山大学 | Typhoon forecast method, system, readable storage medium storing program for executing and equipment |
| CN109840634A (en) * | 2019-01-29 | 2019-06-04 | 宁波市气象台 | Log in the probability forecast method of Ningbo strong convective weather in the outer―region circulation of Fujian |
| CN111722306A (en) * | 2020-07-27 | 2020-09-29 | 郑州航空工业管理学院 | Typhoon landing intensity prediction method and system based on TCN network model |
| CN112748480A (en) * | 2020-12-21 | 2021-05-04 | 华能国际电力股份有限公司浙江清洁能源分公司 | Offshore tropical cyclone center positioning method and device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN113671599A (en) * | 2021-08-25 | 2021-11-19 | 华北电力大学 | Global climate mode-based login cyclone identification method |
| CN113805252A (en) * | 2021-09-15 | 2021-12-17 | 中国气象科学研究院 | System for forecasting gale in tropical cyclone landing process based on ensemble forecasting model |
| CN114088100A (en) * | 2022-01-11 | 2022-02-25 | 中科星图智慧科技有限公司 | Path planning method and device based on complex conditions |
| CN114637806A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-06-17 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Visual analysis method for tropical cyclone forecast inspection index data |
Citations (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2007256183A (en) * | 2006-03-24 | 2007-10-04 | Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The | Forecasting system for occurrence of disaster due to typhoon |
| JP2008051541A (en) * | 2006-08-22 | 2008-03-06 | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | Typhoon center detection device |
| KR20120132985A (en) * | 2011-05-30 | 2012-12-10 | 부경대학교 산학협력단 | Search system for spatiotemporal distribution of disaster weather when disturbance approaches including typhoon |
| CN103365958A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2013-10-23 | 南京信大高科技发展有限公司 | Typhoon forecasting platform and typhoon track retrieval method |
| CN103544379A (en) * | 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-29 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | Typhoon landing similarity analytical method based on GIS |
| CN103955009A (en) * | 2014-04-25 | 2014-07-30 | 宁波市气象台 | Method for extracting typhoon objective forecast information from numerical forecasting product |
| CN104200082A (en) * | 2014-08-22 | 2014-12-10 | 清华大学 | Typhoon landing prediction method |
-
2015
- 2015-01-21 CN CN201510031420.0A patent/CN104570161B/en active Active
Patent Citations (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2007256183A (en) * | 2006-03-24 | 2007-10-04 | Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc:The | Forecasting system for occurrence of disaster due to typhoon |
| JP2008051541A (en) * | 2006-08-22 | 2008-03-06 | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | Typhoon center detection device |
| KR20120132985A (en) * | 2011-05-30 | 2012-12-10 | 부경대학교 산학협력단 | Search system for spatiotemporal distribution of disaster weather when disturbance approaches including typhoon |
| CN103365958A (en) * | 2013-05-31 | 2013-10-23 | 南京信大高科技发展有限公司 | Typhoon forecasting platform and typhoon track retrieval method |
| CN103544379A (en) * | 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-29 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | Typhoon landing similarity analytical method based on GIS |
| CN103955009A (en) * | 2014-04-25 | 2014-07-30 | 宁波市气象台 | Method for extracting typhoon objective forecast information from numerical forecasting product |
| CN104200082A (en) * | 2014-08-22 | 2014-12-10 | 清华大学 | Typhoon landing prediction method |
Cited By (16)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105182450A (en) * | 2015-10-15 | 2015-12-23 | 成都信息工程大学 | Short-time early warning system for severe convection weather |
| CN109271474A (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2019-01-25 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | A kind of Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone method based on grid big data statistical method |
| CN109271474B (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2019-05-17 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | A kind of Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone method based on grid big data statistical method |
| CN109444989A (en) * | 2018-12-28 | 2019-03-08 | 中山大学 | Typhoon forecast method, system, readable storage medium storing program for executing and equipment |
| CN109444989B (en) * | 2018-12-28 | 2020-07-07 | 中山大学 | Typhoon forecasting method, typhoon forecasting system, readable storage medium and readable storage equipment |
| CN109840634A (en) * | 2019-01-29 | 2019-06-04 | 宁波市气象台 | Log in the probability forecast method of Ningbo strong convective weather in the outer―region circulation of Fujian |
| CN109840634B (en) * | 2019-01-29 | 2019-09-03 | 宁波市气象台 | Log in the probability forecast method of Ningbo strong convective weather in the outer―region circulation of Fujian |
| CN111722306A (en) * | 2020-07-27 | 2020-09-29 | 郑州航空工业管理学院 | Typhoon landing intensity prediction method and system based on TCN network model |
| CN112748480A (en) * | 2020-12-21 | 2021-05-04 | 华能国际电力股份有限公司浙江清洁能源分公司 | Offshore tropical cyclone center positioning method and device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN113671599A (en) * | 2021-08-25 | 2021-11-19 | 华北电力大学 | Global climate mode-based login cyclone identification method |
| CN113805252A (en) * | 2021-09-15 | 2021-12-17 | 中国气象科学研究院 | System for forecasting gale in tropical cyclone landing process based on ensemble forecasting model |
| CN113805252B (en) * | 2021-09-15 | 2023-03-31 | 中国气象科学研究院 | System for forecasting gale in tropical cyclone landing process based on ensemble forecasting model |
| CN114088100A (en) * | 2022-01-11 | 2022-02-25 | 中科星图智慧科技有限公司 | Path planning method and device based on complex conditions |
| CN114637806A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-06-17 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Visual analysis method for tropical cyclone forecast inspection index data |
| CN114637806B (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-10-18 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Visual analysis method for tropical cyclone forecast inspection index data |
| US11869124B2 (en) | 2022-04-11 | 2024-01-09 | Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration | Visualization analysis method of the tropical cyclone forecast verification index data |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN104570161B (en) | 2017-09-15 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN104570161A (en) | Typhoon automatic forecasting method based on EC/JMA global grid forecasting data | |
| CN111427100B (en) | Typhoon center positioning method and device and typhoon path generation method | |
| CN103955009B (en) | A kind of method extracting Objective Typhoon forecast information from numerical forecasting product | |
| CN102833680B (en) | Position-based marine fishery information serving method | |
| Lozano et al. | Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario | |
| CN112070286B (en) | Precipitation forecast and early warning system for complex terrain river basin | |
| CN103383471B (en) | Transient disturbance weather map and low-frequency disturbance weather map manufacturing method and application of method in weather report | |
| CN110502801B (en) | Ocean temperature front automatic tracking and characteristic parameter information extraction method | |
| CN109583653A (en) | The extended peroid forecasting procedure of NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON based on statistical model | |
| CN102254239A (en) | Power grid wind damage early warning system based on micro-landform wind field distribution and typhoon superimposed effect | |
| Karipoğlu et al. | Determination of the most appropriate site selection of wind power plants based Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach in Develi, Turkey. | |
| KR101383617B1 (en) | Method and apparatus for predicting daily solar radiation level | |
| KR101646587B1 (en) | Hybrid seasonal prediction of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity | |
| CN107193060A (en) | A kind of multipath Typhoon Storm Surge Over method for quick predicting and system | |
| CN110516025A (en) | Typhoon tracing system and method | |
| CN108808671A (en) | A kind of short-term wind speed DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM method of wind power plant | |
| CN107656256B (en) | Utilize the method for radar data recognition and tracking heavy rain | |
| CN104392113A (en) | Method for estimating wind speed of cold air wind on offshore sea surface | |
| CN109977569A (en) | It is a kind of to merge multifactor MOS storm tide process disaster simulation method | |
| Genç | Determination of the most appropriate site selection of wind power plants based Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making approach in Develi, Turkey | |
| CN109583095B (en) | North Pacific typhoon extension period forecasting method based on hybrid statistical power model | |
| CN108198090B (en) | Typhoon monitoring and point distribution method for power grid power transmission and distribution facility | |
| Liao et al. | The research on boundary layer evolution characteristics of Typhoon Usagi based on observations by wind profilers | |
| Hattori et al. | Impact of the radiosonde observations of cold surge over the Philippine Sea on the tropical region and the Southern Hemisphere in December 2012 | |
| CN111696330B (en) | Classification method and system for wind disaster of power transmission line |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| C06 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| C10 | Entry into substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |