CN104376400A - Risk assessment method based on fuzzy matrix and analytic hierarchy process - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk assessment method based on a fuzzy matrix and an analytic hierarchy process. The risk assessment method based on the fuzzy matrix and the analytic hierarchy process comprises the steps that a plurality of evaluation indexes are set to generate an evaluation index domain; a plurality of evaluation scales are set to generate an evaluation scale domain, and each evaluation scale corresponds to a scale fuzzy subset; the membership of a dangerous source for each scale fuzzy subset is calculated, and a membership matrix is constructed; weight vectors of the evaluation indexes are calculated; a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector of the dangerous source is synthesized; a risk assessment value is calculated; a risk value is calculated, and the risk condition of the dangerous source is judged according to a risk matrix and the risk value. Through the application of the fuzzy matrix and the analytic hierarchy process in risk assessment, the risk assessment method is used for analyzing various undetermined factors and indexes in the risk assessment process; first-scale indexes and second-scale indexes are set for evaluation from multiple aspects, so that analysis is more comprehensive and a danger value of possibility and a danger value of severity are formed; curving of a risky area chart guarantees stable risk conditions of the dangerous source.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to aviation management domain, particularly relate to a kind of methods of risk assessment based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process.
Background technology
Aloft in traffic administration, the factor affecting risk is normally uncertain.In risk assessment process, have the character of a lot of influence factor and movable numeral of cannot using to carry out quantitative description, result cannot judge by single criterion, and therefore the fuzzy mathematics method that adopts processes more.
American scholar L.A.Zadeth proposes the concept of fuzzy set first in nineteen sixty-five, to fuzzy behavior and movable Modling model.Fuzzy mathematics transfers to continuous logic from the basis of two-valued function, absolute "Yes" and " non-" are become thing more flexibly, goes to process blooming with strict mathematical method.
In addition, analytical hierarchy process (Analytic Hierarchy Process is called for short AHP) is also conventional means, it is that the one of teaching T.L.Satty proposition by the U.S.'s operational research eighties in 20th century is easy, flexible and practical criteria decision-making method, PROBLEM DECOMPOSITION is different compositing factors according to the character of problem and the target that will reach by it, and pressed different levels gathering combination according to the interrelated impact between factor and membership, form a multi-level analytical structure model, then layer analysis is pressed, final acquisition lowermost layer factor is for the importance weight of top (general objective).
At present, aloft in traffic administration, conventional Forecasting Methodology mainly contains:
Expert prediction method, refers to and forms by multiple expert a kind of method that expert group carries out risk profile, be also called " expert survey ".Two kinds of modes can be divided into: (1) tissue relevant expert investigate, then be drawn the conclusion of prediction by the mode discussion of forum; (2) Delphi approach, when transporting in this way, by coordinator with note formats, issue table is sent to relevant expert, require that expert clearly answers the problem listed by issue table, after the coordinated person's induction-arrangement of test paper of results and analysis, then result is sent to expert with the form of letters.But expert opinion may not necessarily reflect objective reality, and the responsibility of each expert is comparatively disperseed, and the flexible strategy of estimation should not be determined, therefore, is generally only applicable to the prediction of total value, and for poor reliability when region, customer base, product category.
LEC risk assessment method, full name operation risk analysis method is a kind of dangerous quantitative calculation method.According to identification of dangerous source record, quantitatively calculate the risk that each dangerous matter sources is brought, determine and do Risks, list inventory and issue, plannedly to control risk.The computing method adopted: D=L × E × C, wherein: D is value-at-risk, L is the possibility size had an accident, and E is the frequent degree being exposed to hazardous environment, and C is the consequence produced that has an accident.But LEC risk assessment method, in the division to danger classes, is by virtue of experience judge to a certain extent, has its limitation during application, and it is a kind of local evaluation of operation, therefore can not generally be suitable for.
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is, a kind of methods of risk assessment based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process is provided, the application in risk assessment by fuzzy matrix and analytical hierarchy process, analyzes the various uncertain factors occurred in risk assessment process, index.
In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, the invention provides a kind of methods of risk assessment based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, comprising: formulate multiple evaluation index by the expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources and generate evaluation index territory; Formulate multiple opinion rating by the expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources and generate opinion rating territory, the corresponding grade fuzzy subset of each opinion rating; According to described evaluation index, calculate dangerous matter sources respectively to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, build subordinated-degree matrix; Reference level fractional analysis calculates the weight vectors of described evaluation index; The fuzzy overall evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources is synthesized according to described subordinated-degree matrix and weight vectors; According to described weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector calculation risk evaluation of estimate; According to described risk assessment value calculation risk value, judge the risk situation of dangerous matter sources according to risk Metrics and described value-at-risk.
As the improvement of such scheme, described evaluation index is made up of first class index, and described first class index comprises people, machine, ring, pipe; Described first class index is made up of two-level index; Described people comprises the impact of foreign nationality's unit, controller's duty, teams and groups' resource management; Described machine comprises airborne equipment state, control automated system state, radar terminal state; Described ring comprises the cleanliness of aerial weather condition, warship active situation, workplace; Described pipe comprises the on-the-job training of control student, the validity of risk management, control operation program.
As the improvement of such scheme, described opinion rating comprises possibility opinion rating, severity ratings grade; Described possibility opinion rating comprises extremely can not, seldom may, may, quite may, completely may; Described severity ratings grade comprise can ignore, slight, serious, dangerous, disaster.
As the improvement of such scheme, the method for the weight vectors of described reference level fractional analysis Calculation Estimation index comprises: according to the relative importance development of judgment matrix of described evaluation index; According to the weight vectors of described judgment matrix determination evaluation index; Consistency check is carried out to described judgment matrix.
As the improvement of such scheme, the method for the described relative importance development of judgment matrix according to evaluation index comprises: the Scale Method development of judgment matrix adopting 1,3,5,7,9 and inverse.
As the improvement of such scheme, describedly determine that the method for the weight vectors of evaluation index comprises: by Maximum characteristic root and the described Maximum characteristic root characteristic of correspondence vector of judgment matrix described in power method iterative computation; Described proper vector is normalized.
As the improvement of such scheme, described the method that judgment matrix carries out consistency check to be comprised: calculate coincident indicator CI; Calculate Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI; When random Consistency Ratio
time, then the consistance of judgment matrix can accept, otherwise the consistance of judgment matrix is unacceptable, needs to rebuild judgment matrix and redefines weight vectors.
As the improvement of such scheme, the described method according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector calculation risk evaluation of estimate comprises: according to described weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector synthesis comprehensive evaluation vector; Adopt parameter characterization method to process described comprehensive evaluation vector, generate the risk assessment value of opinion rating.
As the improvement of such scheme, describedly judge that the method for the risk situation of dangerous matter sources comprises according to risk Metrics and described value-at-risk: described risk Metrics is divided into unacceptable region, need alleviates region and acceptable area; If described value-at-risk is in unacceptable region, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is unacceptable; Need alleviate in region if described value-at-risk is in, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is alleviated for needing; If described value-at-risk is in acceptable area, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is for accepting.
Implement the present invention, there is following beneficial effect:
The present invention is based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, the application in risk assessment by fuzzy matrix and analytical hierarchy process, can analyze the various uncertain factors occurred in risk assessment process, index.
First class index, two-level index being set, by considering from people, machine, ring, pipe four aspects, analyzing more comprehensive.
Employing arranges weight, and the mode that each factor index contrasts mutually is evaluated, thus forms the dangerous values of a possibility, seriousness.
Risk zones figure's is curved, ensures that the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is stablized.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the embodiment process flow diagram of the methods of risk assessment that the present invention is based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process;
Fig. 2 is the embodiment process flow diagram of the weight vectors of reference level fractional analysis Calculation Estimation index in the methods of risk assessment that the present invention is based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process;
Fig. 3 is the methods of risk assessment risk area schematic that the present invention is based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process.
Embodiment
For making the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail.
Fig. 1 is the first embodiment process flow diagram of the methods of risk assessment that the present invention is based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, comprising:
S101, formulates multiple evaluation index by the expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources and generates evaluation index territory.
Such as, P evaluation index can be recommended out to generate evaluation index territory, u={u by the collective of expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources
1, u
2..., u
p.
More preferably, described evaluation index is made up of first class index, and described first class index comprises people, machine, ring, pipe.Described first class index is made up of two-level index, and two-level index comprises the impact of foreign nationality's unit, controller's duty, teams and groups' resource management, airborne equipment state, control automated system state, radar terminal state, aerial weather condition, warship active situation, the cleanliness of workplace, the on-the-job training of control student, the validity of risk management, control operation program.Wherein, described people comprises the impact of foreign nationality's unit, controller's duty, teams and groups' resource management; Described machine comprises airborne equipment state, control automated system state, radar terminal state; Described ring comprises the cleanliness of aerial weather condition, warship active situation, workplace; Described pipe comprises the on-the-job training of control student, the validity of risk management, control operation program.
S102, formulates multiple opinion rating by the expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources and generates opinion rating territory.
Correspondingly, the corresponding grade fuzzy subset of each opinion rating.
Such as, can elect and select M opinion rating and form opinion rating territory, v={v by evaluating the collective of expert group of dangerous matter sources
1, v
2..., v
m.
More preferably, described opinion rating comprises possibility opinion rating, severity ratings grade; Wherein, described possibility opinion rating comprises extremely impossible, few possibility, possibility, quite possibility, completely possibility; Described severity ratings grade comprise can ignore, slight, serious, dangerous, disaster.That is, possibility opinion rating=and extremely impossible, seldom possibility, may, quite possibility, completely possibility }, severity ratings grade=can ignore, slight, serious, dangerous, disaster }.
It should be noted that, in the fuzzy overall evaluation of blank pipe risk management, usually use analytical hierarchy process to determine the relative importance of evaluation index.
Such as, destination layer evaluation index is uA={uA
1, uA
2}={ possibility, seriousness }, destination layer index is made up of first class index, uA
1=uA
2={ uB
1, uB
2, uB
3, uB
4}={ people, machine, ring, pipe }, first class index is made up of two-level index, Ub
1={ uC
1, uC
2..., uC
p, i=1,2,3,4.
S103, according to described evaluation index, calculates dangerous matter sources respectively to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, builds subordinated-degree matrix.
It should be noted that, after constructing grade fuzzy subset, need one by one to dangerous matter sources from each evaluation index u
i(i=1,2 ..., quantize p), namely determine from single index, commented the degree of membership of dangerous matter sources In Grade fuzzy subset (R ︱ u
i), thus obtain subordinated-degree matrix:
I-th row jth column element r in matrix R
ij, represent that dangerous matter sources is from evaluation index u
ito v
jthe degree of membership of grade fuzzy subset.In the evaluation of dangerous matter sources, subordinated-degree matrix has reflected the level condition that expert group is recommended in possibility, seriousness each index.
S104, reference level fractional analysis calculates the weight vectors of described evaluation index.
It should be noted that, weight vectors represents the relative importance sequence of each evaluation index, i.e. the distribution of weight.
It should be noted that, for multi-level Comprehensive Evaluation Problem, fuzzy comprehensive evoluation process is progressively carried out to high-level by low level.Respectively its respective judgment matrix being constructed to first class index and two-level index, by calculating Maximum characteristic root and consistency check, drawing rational weight vectors.
S105, synthesizes the fuzzy overall evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources according to described subordinated-degree matrix and weight vectors.
Such as, by weight vectors A and respectively commented the subordinated-degree matrix R of dangerous matter sources to synthesize, obtain the fuzzy overall evaluation result vector B of dangerous matter sources.That is:
Wherein, b
1be obtained by the jth column operations of weight vectors A and subordinated-degree matrix R, it represents that dangerous matter sources is seen on the whole to v
jthe subjection degree of grade fuzzy subset.
S106, according to described weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector calculation risk evaluation of estimate.
More preferably, the described method according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector calculation risk evaluation of estimate comprises:
A1, synthesizes comprehensive evaluation vector V according to described weight vectors A and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector B.
A2, adopts parameter characterization method to process described comprehensive evaluation vector, generates the risk assessment value of opinion rating.
It should be noted that, fuzzy evaluating matrix corresponding to one-level evaluation index is formed by people, machine, ring, pipe four evaluation result vectors, calculate comprehensive evaluation vector V=A o B, parameter characterization method is finally adopted to process comprehensive evaluation vector, draw the risk assessment value P of possibility respectively, the risk assessment value S of seriousness.
S107, according to described risk assessment value calculation risk value, judges the risk situation of dangerous matter sources according to risk Metrics and described value-at-risk.
It should be noted that, described opinion rating comprises possibility opinion rating, severity ratings grade, and correspondingly, risk assessment value comprises the risk assessment value P of possibility and the risk assessment value S of seriousness.
Calculate the risk assessment value P of the possibility of dangerous matter sources and the risk assessment value S of seriousness according to step S106 after, final value-at-risk P × S can be calculated.
More preferably, describedly judge that the method for the risk situation of dangerous matter sources comprises according to risk Metrics and described value-at-risk:
Described risk Metrics is divided into unacceptable region, need alleviates region and acceptable area;
If described value-at-risk is in unacceptable region, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is unacceptable;
Need alleviate in region if described value-at-risk is in, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is alleviated for needing;
If described value-at-risk is in acceptable area, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is for accepting.
As shown in Figure 3, the horizontal ordinate that described risk Metrics is drawn is severity ratings grade, and ordinate is possibility opinion rating.Described risk Metrics is divided into unacceptable region, need alleviates region and acceptable area.
Certain region dropping on risk Metrics according to value-at-risk judge this dangerous matter sources be acceptable, need to alleviate or unacceptable.
It should be noted that, the risk zones that this method divides is zone of dispersion, different with the risk assessment value S of seriousness for the risk assessment value P of possibility, but the situation that integrated risk value P × S-phase is same, different risk zones may be dropped on.Therefore, risk zones adopts curve risk zones to judge, ensures that the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is stablized.
Fig. 2 is the embodiment process flow diagram of the weight vectors of reference level fractional analysis Calculation Estimation index in the methods of risk assessment that the present invention is based on fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, comprising:
S201, according to the relative importance development of judgment matrix of described evaluation index.
More preferably, the method for the described relative importance development of judgment matrix according to evaluation index comprises: the Scale Method development of judgment matrix adopting 1,3,5,7,9 and inverse.
It should be noted that, judgment matrix reflects the understanding of expert group to each evaluation index relative importance, adopts the Scale Method development of judgment matrix of 1,3,5,7,9 and inverse in blank pipe risk management is normal.The value of judgment matrix respective element then gets this ratio, i.e. judgment matrix S=(u
ij)
p × P.
S202, according to the weight vectors of described judgment matrix determination evaluation index.
More preferably, describedly determine that the method for the weight vectors of evaluation index comprises:
C1, by Maximum characteristic root and the described Maximum characteristic root characteristic of correspondence vector of judgment matrix described in power method iterative computation.
C2, is normalized described proper vector.
It should be noted that, go out the Maximum characteristic root λ of judgment matrix S by power method iterative computation
maxand Maximum characteristic root λ
maxcorresponding proper vector A (a
1, a
2..., a
p), this proper vector is exactly the relative importance sequence of each evaluation index, i.e. the distribution of weight.Then, proper vector normalization is formed weight vectors, namely
a
i>=0, i=1,2 ..., n.
S203, carries out consistency check to described judgment matrix.
More preferably, described the method that judgment matrix carries out consistency check to be comprised:
D1, calculates coincident indicator CI,
D2, calculates Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI;
D3, when random Consistency Ratio
time, then the consistance of judgment matrix can accept, otherwise the consistance of judgment matrix is unacceptable, needs to rebuild judgment matrix and redefines weight vectors.
It should be noted that, with random method construct 500 sample matrix, fill up the upper triangle of sample matrix randomly with 1,3,5,7,9 and the Scale Method of inverse, make the every numerical value of principal diagonal be 1, corresponding transposition position then adopts the inverse of correspondence position random number.To each its consistance of random sample matrix computations desired value CI, on average namely Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI is obtained to these coincident indicator value CI.When random Consistency Ratio
time, think the consistance that the result of importance ranking is satisfied, namely the distribution of weight vectors is rational; Otherwise, the element value of judgment matrix be adjusted, redistribute weight vectors.
Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail.
Possibility assessment is carried out to dangerous matter sources " district adjusts Power supply alteration event ", formulates evaluation index:
Table 1 " district adjusts Power supply alteration event " possibility evaluation index:
According to expert group's marking situation Judgement Matricies S respectively, and calculate respective weights vector.Show that index weights at different levels distributes after the Weight each expert calculated is average:
Table 2 possibility two-level index weight calculation result gathers
| People | Foreign nationality's unit affects | Controller's duty | Teams and groups' resource management | Weight |
| Foreign nationality's unit affects | 1 | 0.48750 | 0.86250 | 0.15870 |
| Controller's duty | 2.05128 | 1 | 1.87500 | 0.54890 |
| Teams and groups' resource management | 1.15942 | 0.53333 | 1 | 0.29240 |
| Machine | Airborne equipment state | Control automated system state | Radar terminal state | Weight |
| Airborne equipment state | 1 | 0.73750 | 0.61250 | 0.21096 |
| Control automated system state | 1.35593 | 1 | 1.87500 | 0.45028 |
| Radar terminal state | 1.63265 | 0.53333 | 1 | 0.33876 |
| Ring | Aerial weather condition | Army's boat active situation | The cleanliness of workplace | Weight |
| Aerial weather condition | 1 | 0.52083 | 0.75000 | 0.19371 |
[0086]
| Army's boat active situation | 1.92000 | 1 | 0.91667 | 0.34795 |
| The cleanliness of workplace | 1.33333 | 1.09091 | 1 | 0.45834 |
| Pipe | The on-the-job training of control student | The validity of risk management | Control operation program | Weight |
| The on-the-job training of control student | 1 | 0.50000 | 0.75000 | 0.11634 |
| The validity of risk management | 2.00000 | 1 | 0.41667 | 0.32678 |
| Control operation program | 1.33333 | 2.40000 | 1 | 0.55688 |
Table 3 possibility first class index weight calculation result gathers
| People | Machine | Ring | Pipe | Weight | |
| People | 1 | 0.75000 | 0.83333 | 1.12500 | 0.21573 |
| Machine | 1.33333 | 1 | 1.33333 | 0.70833 | 0.24697 |
| Ring | 1.20000 | 0.75000 | 1 | 0.75000 | 0.23567 |
| Pipe | 0.88889 | 1.41176 | 1.33333 | 1 | 0.30163 |
According to the recommended case structure subordinated-degree matrix R of expert group to possibility grade:
Table 4 possibility index subordinated-degree matrix
The fuzzy overall evaluation result vector of first order calculation index is
In like manner calculate
B
machine=(0.38034,0.53497,0.08469,0,0)
B
ring=(0.1838425,0.4724025,0.343755,0,0)
B
pipe=(0.16895,0.83105,0,0,0)
B
people, B
machine, B
ring, B
pipeform first class index people, machine, ring, fuzzy evaluating matrix that pipe is corresponding
Comprehensive evaluation vector
Process comprehensive evaluation vector by parameter characterization method, it is as follows that quantitative criterion is evaluated in setting:
Quantitative criterion evaluated by table 5
| Evaluate quantitatively | Opinion rating |
| [0，2] | Extremely impossible |
| (2，4] | Few possibility |
| (4，6] | May |
| (6，8] | Quite may |
| (8，10] | Complete possibility |
Finally calculate the risk assessment value of possibility:
P＝0.22967×2+0.65244×4+0.11770×6+0×8+0×10)＝3.7753
Namely the possibility of this dangerous matter sources is seldom may.The risk assessment value S of the severity value calculating dangerous matter sources can be continued with said method, and draw final integrated risk value P × S.
As from the foregoing, the present invention is based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, the application in risk assessment by fuzzy matrix and analytical hierarchy process, can analyze the various uncertain factors occurred in risk assessment process, index; By considering from people, machine, ring, pipe four aspects; Employing arranges weight, and the mode that each factor index contrasts mutually is evaluated, thus forms the dangerous values of a possibility, seriousness; Risk zones figure's is curved, ensures that the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is stablized.
The above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention; it should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention; can also make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications are also considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. based on a methods of risk assessment for fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, comprising:
Formulate multiple evaluation index by the expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources and generate evaluation index territory;
Formulate multiple opinion rating by the expert group evaluating dangerous matter sources and generate opinion rating territory, the corresponding grade fuzzy subset of each opinion rating;
According to described evaluation index, calculate dangerous matter sources respectively to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, build subordinated-degree matrix;
Reference level fractional analysis calculates the weight vectors of described evaluation index;
The fuzzy overall evaluation result vector of dangerous matter sources is synthesized according to described subordinated-degree matrix and weight vectors;
According to described weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector calculation risk evaluation of estimate;
According to described risk assessment value calculation risk value, judge the risk situation of dangerous matter sources according to risk Metrics and described value-at-risk.
2., as claimed in claim 1 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that,
Described evaluation index is made up of first class index, and described first class index comprises people, machine, ring, pipe;
Described first class index is made up of two-level index;
Described people comprises the impact of foreign nationality's unit, controller's duty, teams and groups' resource management;
Described machine comprises airborne equipment state, control automated system state, radar terminal state;
Described ring comprises the cleanliness of aerial weather condition, warship active situation, workplace;
Described pipe comprises the on-the-job training of control student, the validity of risk management, control operation program.
3., as claimed in claim 1 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, described opinion rating comprises possibility opinion rating, severity ratings grade;
Described possibility opinion rating comprises extremely can not, seldom may, may, quite may, completely may;
Described severity ratings grade comprise can ignore, slight, serious, dangerous, disaster.
4., as claimed in claim 1 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, the method for the weight vectors of described reference level fractional analysis Calculation Estimation index comprises:
According to the relative importance development of judgment matrix of described evaluation index;
According to the weight vectors of described judgment matrix determination evaluation index;
Consistency check is carried out to described judgment matrix.
5. as claimed in claim 4 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, the method for the described relative importance development of judgment matrix according to evaluation index comprises: the Scale Method development of judgment matrix adopting 1,3,5,7,9 and inverse.
6. as claimed in claim 4 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, describedly determine that the method for the weight vectors of evaluation index comprises:
By Maximum characteristic root and the described Maximum characteristic root characteristic of correspondence vector of judgment matrix described in power method iterative computation;
Described proper vector is normalized.
7. as claimed in claim 4 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, described the method that judgment matrix carries out consistency check to be comprised:
Calculate coincident indicator CI;
Calculate Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI;
When random Consistency Ratio
time, then the consistance of judgment matrix can accept, otherwise the consistance of judgment matrix is unacceptable, needs to rebuild judgment matrix and redefines weight vectors.
8., as claimed in claim 1 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, the described method according to weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector calculation risk evaluation of estimate comprises:
According to described weight vectors and fuzzy overall evaluation result vector synthesis comprehensive evaluation vector;
Adopt parameter characterization method to process described comprehensive evaluation vector, generate the risk assessment value of opinion rating.
9. as claimed in claim 1 based on the methods of risk assessment of fuzzy matrix analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that, describedly judge that the method for the risk situation of dangerous matter sources comprises according to risk Metrics and described value-at-risk:
Described risk Metrics is divided into unacceptable region, need alleviates region and acceptable area;
If described value-at-risk is in unacceptable region, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is unacceptable;
Need alleviate in region if described value-at-risk is in, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is alleviated for needing;
If described value-at-risk is in acceptable area, then the risk situation of dangerous matter sources is for accepting.
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