CN104036403A - Supply chain network graded-assessment system based on repeated game theory - Google Patents
Supply chain network graded-assessment system based on repeated game theory Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the fields of supply chain management, game economics and computer network. Aiming at the problems of supplier access selection of core enterprises, contract negotiation, and supply chain network graded-assessment and management, a supply chain network graded-assessment system based on the repeated game theory is constructed by adoption of a game analysis method, a repeated game model and an effective strategy. The method can be applied to supply chain management platforms of core enterprises to provide assistant decision-making support for supplier selection and graded management and assessment, optimize a supply chain network, and provide a technical guarantee for the enterprises to reduce cost and improve the quality of products and services.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to supply chain management, game Science of Economics, for core enterprise to supplier's access choose, the problem such as contract negotiation, quality assessment, differentiated control, adopt game theory analysis method, repeated game model and available strategy, propose a kind of novel supply chain network classified estimation system.
Background technology
Under the background of globalization, the diversity of user's request and uncertainty make enterprise face keen competition.Enterprise is for survival and development, must take to research and develop sooner and speed of production, the competitive strategy of low cost, more products kind more.Supply chain is exactly around core enterprise, by the management and control of logistics, information flow, cash flow, covers supplier, manufacturer, retail trader, retailer and terminal user's platform.Supply chain management emphasizes that core enterprise and enterprise of alliance build up strategic partnership relationship, enhances the core competitiveness of enterprises, and other enterprise in supply chain is all benefited, and reaches the effect of doulbe-sides' victory or multi-win.
From theory of games, between supply chain enterprise, set up cooperative relationship, be exactly the problem of game between enterprise.According to classical prisoner betting model, in disposable game, both sides, because individual rationality requires all to select to betray, form one time Nash Equilibrium; If but repeated game repeatedly, individual in order to seek the maximization of omnidistance interests, both sides can attempt cooperation, form more effective equilibrium, as Bayes's equilibrium.
Core enterprise can choose suitable supplier by game theory analysis method, and utilizes repeated game model and available strategy, and supplier is tried out, assesses differentiated control, and the management of the negotiation strategies of supplier's contract.
Summary of the invention
technical matters:the object of the invention is to propose a kind of supply chain network grading evaluation method based on repeated game opinion, mainly process supplier management and the supply chain network optimization problem of core enterprise in supply chain.
technical scheme:first adopt game theory analysis method to carry out supplier and choose work, formulate dependent evaluation standard, weight and strategy.Manufacturer is repeatedly in negotiation process, using repeated game model and available strategy to do decision-making auxiliary with supplier's segmentation contract; After segmentation contract execution completes, this section of contract game strategies analyzed to file, and follow the tracks of assessment supplier qualification; According to the assessment result Macro or mass analysis after multistage contract execution, supplier's qualification is carried out to differentiated control, and determine and supplier's cooperative relationship and the strategy of next step contract negotiation with this.By the application of above-mentioned multi-level repeated game strategy, effectively solve part supplier management problem, support for the decision-making work of supply chain core enterprise provides assistant analysis, and the network of optimizing supply chain, for Reducing Cost in Enterprises and improving product service quality are made technical guarantee.
1 supplier based on game theory analysis method chooses
Core enterprise, in the time choosing supplier, can be partial to the several suppliers that have superiority in industry, and its advantage generally shows the aspects such as supply of material quality, price, service and speed; And therefore manufacturer can reduce the loss due to spoiled work that inventory cost and quality problems cause, and reduce transaction cost and cost of products.Game theory analysis method provides strong theoretical foundation for supplier's On The Choice.Because there is INFORMATION OF INCOMPLETE situation, core enterprise chooses supplier's cooperation that can pass one's probation period and obtains further information, and utilizes repeated game model and corresponding strategies to support contract negotiation, completes supplier's classified estimation and management work.
Concrete game theory analysis method step is as follows:
1.1) supplier's access and aptitude checking, carries out the analysis on Necessity of qualification and demand, formulates evaluation criteria;
1.2) supplier's trial period manages, and comprises that segmentation contract repeatedly negotiates game strategies and choose and record;
1.3) supplier's classified estimation, sets up assessment panel, and supplier is followed the tracks of to assessment, and multistage contract execution result is carried out to Macro or mass analysis, realizes the classified estimation of supplier's qualification;
1.4) supplier's differentiated control, the survival of the fittest, for concrete contract requirements, selected supplier, the network of optimizing supply chain.
Game theory analysis method is based on coacting, long term growth, adopts the mode of fixed guantity combining with fixed quality, has strengthened the understanding to supplier, improved the reliability of cooperation, and operation is simple.In addition, core enterprise can change its evaluation criterion, weight and strategy according to actual conditions, makes the method have applicability widely.But when game theory analysis method is assessed supplier, ask oversize, be not suitable for urgent order, and supplier's contract execution asynchronism(-nization), determines that by contract number of times trial period length is not too reasonable, be necessary to consider development strategy execution and the related cost factor of contract negotiation of enterprise.
2 supplier management repeated game models and representative strategy
Prisoner is the classical model in theory of games, is applied to supply chain management, as shown in the table.Two game participants table is not the A of core enterprise and supplier B, and action strategy is upgraded to cooperation concession C and betrays selfish D, and the strategy is here to have cooperation purpose in consideration enterprise, and has and set under the scene of Contract Signing.Final income condition should have: T>R>P>S, and R> (T+S)/2, represent respectively instruction condition and the condition of opposing exploitation.It is T that the short-term maximum return that core enterprise is pursued is worked as, and considers from enterprise's long term growth angle, and optimum solution should be tactful group (C, C), and both sides' income is all R.
According to three of Axelrod repeated game experimental results, choose several representative strategy that is applicable to supplier management:
(1) strategy (TFT, TIT FOR TAT) of returning like for like
First leg is selected cooperation, and later each bout all repeats the strategy of the other side in upper one bout: the other side betrays, and oneself is also betrayed; The other side cooperates, and oneself is also cooperated.Be mapped to supply chain, i.e. first selection strategy C of A, follow-up policy selection with on to take turns the selection strategy of B identical.
This strategy is contained kind-heartedness, enraging property and the tolerance that outstanding strategy comprises.And performance is very thorough: never first betray, just dare not adhere to once enraging property is betrayed afterwards the other side, tolerance contributes to recover mutual cooperation.This strategy is applicable to most supplier managements.
(2) TF2T strategy
The tolerant upgrade version of TFT, only betrays when B betrays twice above just selection continuously, and other are similar.This strategy is applicable to the supplier that several higher grades.
(3) Ha Lingdun strategy (HARRINGTON)
First A cooperates, and when find that B is cooperating always, A carrys out suddenly a betrayal, if B makes reprisals at once, A just recovers cooperation; If B still cooperates, that A just continues to betray.This is the unique non-kindhearted strategy that score is the highest, is applicable to rudimentary supplier.
(4) proofer's strategy (TESTER)
A first leg is selected to betray, and then observes the strategy of B.If B betrays, just make TFT into and act; If B cooperation, in the 2nd, 3 bout cooperations, but just betrays once every bout.This strategy is designed to bully specially " coward ", is applicable to supplier and the elementary supplier of trial period.
the game strategies of 3 suppliers contract negotiation
Supplier management is aspect qualitative, quantitative, final or will revert on contract, relates to that contract is drafted, contract negotiation and contract execution overall process.According to actual scene, be mainly divided into two types of application of policies:
(1) segmentation contract is repeatedly negotiated game strategies
This scene for the same time period and batch contract negotiation, be under the jurisdiction of the repeated game situation of unknown number of times.Here the strategy of core enterprise reply, should be according to supplier's grade, takes into account the factors such as negotiation field conditions and enterprise demand, selects suitable negotiation strategies.Complete after many bout negotiation games, obtain the Ye Beisi equilibrium for incomplete information dynamic game.After contract execution, calculate according to service of goods water product and profit, give supplier strategy assessment and file, as the strategy reference of next section of contract.
(2) the new contract negotiation game strategies of multistage
This situation is for supplier's new contract negotiation, and this will add up the contract game information of all batches before this, multistage contract negotiation is regarded as to the repeated game process of " macroscopic view ".And just foundation statistics above of the game strategies of new contract, and supplier's grade is made policy selection.
4 supply chain network classified estimation and management
First, in supply chain network management system, added up the data such as supplier's qualification, deliverability, service of goods quality, Contract Document and negotiation strategies by core enterprise, and according to evaluation criteria, supplier is carried out to classification, be followed successively by earth S, AAA, AA, A, five grades of B by height, S is superfine, and B is trial period the lowest class, the administrative standard (negotiation strategies) of each grade is also variant, specifically sees following form:
According to above-mentioned classified estimation standard and operating strategy, supply chain network is optimized.Supplier lower than A level will be eliminated, and system will retain higher than the supplier of B level, finally keep long-term cooperation with S level, AAA, AA level supplier, optimize formation and have the supply chain network of core competitiveness.
beneficial effect:a kind of supply chain network classified estimation system based on repeated game opinion that the present invention proposes, can reach following effect:
(1) system can be applicable to the supply chain management platform of core enterprise, for the choosing of supplier, management and evaluation work are made auxiliary support.
(2) core enterprise and supplier do while repeatedly negotiating with regard to segmentation contract, by this system Selection Strategy scheme.
(3), when core enterprise and supplier negotiate with regard to new contract, this system provides decision support.
(4) this system is done technical support for supplier's classification quality assessment.
(5) this system optimization enterprise supply chain network, promoted enterprise management level and core competitiveness.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the supply chain network classified estimation system of repeated game opinion.
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet that the present invention is based on supplier's selection operation of game theory analysis method.
The schematic flow sheet of the game strategies operation of Tu3Shi supplier of the present invention contract negotiation.
Fig. 4 is the structural representation of supply chain network classified estimation of the present invention and bookkeeping.
Embodiment
Can specifically be implemented on core enterprise's supply-chain management system in the present invention, strengthen choosing, assess and the work such as management, contract negotiation of supplier, for the decision-making work of supply chain core enterprise is done auxiliary support, and optimize enterprise supply chain network, enterprise management level.
1 supplier based on game theory analysis method chooses
As shown in Figure 2, concrete game theory analysis method implementation step is as follows:
1.1) supplier's access and aptitude checking, carries out the analysis on Necessity of qualification and demand, formulates evaluation criteria; If candidate supplier's qualification, lower than the lowest class B, is not considered cooperation; If candidate supplier's qualification, greater than or equal to B level, manages by strategy and evaluation criteria;
1.2) supplier's trial period manages, and comprises that segmentation contract repeatedly negotiates game strategies and choose and record;
If candidate supplier's qualification higher than AA level, is directly skipped trial period management;
1.3) supplier's classified estimation, sets up assessment panel, and supplier is followed the tracks of to assessment, and multistage contract execution result is carried out to Macro or mass analysis, realizes the classified estimation of supplier's qualification;
1.4) supplier's differentiated control, the survival of the fittest, for concrete contract requirements, selected supplier, implements supply chain.
In the implementation process of above-mentioned steps, should note assessment publicity and fairness, avoid black-box operation, in time by result feedback in supplier.In addition, can change its evaluation criterion, weight and strategy according to actual conditions, make the method there is applicability widely.
2 supplier management repeated game models and representative strategy
Supplier management system, according to core enterprise's contract management master data, builds corresponding repeated game model, and chooses conventional game strategies.Meanwhile, by contract negotiation and assessment statistics, corresponding strategies is adjusted and supplemented.
the game strategies of 3 suppliers contract negotiation is implemented
The game strategies embodiment of two types of supplier's contract negotiations has been described respectively as shown in Figure 3:
(1) segmentation contract is repeatedly negotiated game strategies
To the same time period and batch contract negotiation, should be according to supplier's grade, take into account the factors such as negotiation field conditions and enterprise demand, select suitable negotiation strategies.Choosing of the every bout negotiation strategies of core enterprise, should be above bout supplier's strategy be main reference, adjust according to demand propose for contract strategy.After contract execution, calculate according to service of goods level and profit, give supplier strategy assessment and file, as the strategy reference of next section of contract.
(2) the new contract negotiation game strategies of multistage
For supplier's new contract negotiation, can consider assessment and the archive information of N section contract before statistical-reference, multistage contract negotiation is regarded as to the repeated game process of " macroscopic view ".And just foundation statistics above of the game strategies of new contract, and supplier's grade is made policy selection.The strategy is here the basis of negotiation of whole section of new contract, while relating to this section of many bout negotiation of contract, with reference to the flow process of (1), then does concrete adjustment.Finally, then to new contract supplies business strategy assess and file.
4 supply chain network classified estimation and management
As shown in Figure 4, the supply chain network classified estimation system applies based on repeated game opinion, in core enterprise's supply chain management platform, is carried out to classified estimation and management to supplier.Here consider that core enterprise is the situation of manufacturer, system also can be used for retail trader, retailer's classified estimation, realizes the global optimization to supply chain networking.
In supply chain network management system, by data such as core enterprise statistics supplier qualification, deliverability, service of goods quality, Contract Document and negotiation strategies, and according to evaluation criteria, supplier is carried out classification and sets the policy criteria of each grade.Supplier lower than A level will be eliminated, and system is by the supplier who retains higher than B level, A level supplier can choose the strategy reply of observing cooperation, and final and S level, AAA, AA level supplier keep long-term cooperation, optimizes and forms the supply chain network with core competitiveness.
Claims (5)
1. the supply chain network classified estimation system based on repeated game opinion, is characterized in that:
System of the present invention realizes supplier's selection operation, supply chain management repeated game model and the representative strategy based on game theory analysis method, game strategies operation and supply chain network classified estimation and the bookkeeping of supplier's contract negotiation.
2. the supply chain network classified estimation system based on repeated game opinion according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the treatment step that the supplier based on game theory analysis method chooses is as follows:
1.1) supplier's access and aptitude checking, carries out the analysis on Necessity of qualification and demand, formulates evaluation criteria;
1.2) supplier's trial period manages, and comprises that segmentation contract repeatedly negotiates game strategies and choose and record;
1.3) supplier's classified estimation, sets up assessment panel, and supplier is followed the tracks of to assessment, and multistage contract execution result is carried out to Macro or mass analysis, realizes the classified estimation of supplier's qualification;
1.4) supplier's differentiated control, the survival of the fittest, for concrete contract requirements, selected supplier, the network of optimizing supply chain.
3. according to the supply chain network classified estimation system based on repeated game opinion described in arbitrary claim in claim 1-2, it is characterized in that: supplier management repeated game model builds and representative strategy is chosen.
4. according to the supply chain network classified estimation system based on repeated game opinion described in arbitrary claim in claim 1-2, it is characterized in that: segmentation contract is repeatedly negotiated game strategies and the new contract negotiation game strategies of multistage.
5. according to the supply chain network classified estimation system based on repeated game opinion described in arbitrary claim in claim 1-2, it is characterized in that: supplier's classified estimation and tactical management standard formulation are carried out, optimize enterprise supply chain network.
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CN110443398A (en) * | 2019-05-13 | 2019-11-12 | 华北电力大学(保定) | A kind of regional complex energy resource system optimizing operation method based on repeated game model |
CN113393040A (en) * | 2021-06-18 | 2021-09-14 | 重庆邮电大学工业互联网研究院 | Industrial park logistics scheduling method and system based on game theory |
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Cited By (6)
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CN109754104A (en) * | 2017-11-03 | 2019-05-14 | 飞榴(上海)信息科技有限公司 | Using the method for artificial intelligence optimization's enterprise supply chain, system, equipment and medium |
CN109377123A (en) * | 2018-09-11 | 2019-02-22 | 南京众创企业服务有限公司 | A kind of consulting of computer technology and assessment supply chain system |
CN110443398A (en) * | 2019-05-13 | 2019-11-12 | 华北电力大学(保定) | A kind of regional complex energy resource system optimizing operation method based on repeated game model |
CN110443398B (en) * | 2019-05-13 | 2023-04-18 | 华北电力大学(保定) | Optimal operation method of regional comprehensive energy system based on repeated game model |
CN113393040A (en) * | 2021-06-18 | 2021-09-14 | 重庆邮电大学工业互联网研究院 | Industrial park logistics scheduling method and system based on game theory |
CN113393040B (en) * | 2021-06-18 | 2023-04-07 | 重庆邮电大学工业互联网研究院 | Industrial park logistics scheduling method and system based on game theory |
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