CN103778778B - A kind of fast bus station service information system and quick public transport arrive at a station the measuring method of information - Google Patents
A kind of fast bus station service information system and quick public transport arrive at a station the measuring method of information Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of fast bus station service information system, comprise central processing platform, for the bus rapid transit line information that responsible storage gate position, corresponding BBS (Bulletin Board System) are shielded and stopped, store the car plate of each public transit vehicle, seating capacity, fully loaded number and ownership line information; Bus information subsystem and gps positioning subsystem, for gathering and storing the car plate of public transit vehicle, position, current passenger number, the time of stopping each station on the way and the number information that gets on or off the bus; Platform subsystem, holds for gathering each time the ridership entering platform and wait; Bayonet socket subsystem, also infers the time of public transit vehicle in-track platform accordingly for obtaining the average speeds of public transit vehicle in each section; To be arrived at a station data prediction model measuring and calculating bus arrival data by bus rapid transit.And the measuring method providing a kind of quick public transport to arrive at a station information.When the present invention effectively predicts that each platform is stopped, get on or off the bus number and number of waiting, data message practicality of number of people in car and each platform is good.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to public traffic information service field, especially a kind of fast bus station service information system and quick public transport arrive at a station the measuring method of information.
Background technology
Along with urban traffic blocking aggravation, the pressure brought for traffic administration is also increasing, and public transport is also more and more subject to the attention of vehicle supervision department's attention as the important means alleviating traffic congestion.How to provide good service for citizen take bus to go on a journey, be a heat subject of current intelligent transportation field.Following problem is there is at present in bus trip:
When citizen wait for bus AT STATION, sometimes have multiple choices, except arrival time, people are also concerned about the loading problem of public transit vehicle, when the load of certain road bus or arrival time exceed passenger expect time, passenger can select to take that the bus or select of other routes beats.But at present bus platform is only provided to the prediction case of vehicle arrival time, fail to provide vehicle Che Neiche visitor quantitative forecast situation when arriving at a station of arriving at a station.
When calculating bus load, only adding up the number of people in car of this car when platform is stopped on the way, lacking the method that when each platform is stopped later to this vehicle, number of people in car is predicted.
Summary of the invention
In order to the deficiency that number of people in car when single, the unpredictable each platform of the content overcoming existing bus platform information on services mode is stopped, data message practicality are poor, the invention provides number of people in car and each platform when each platform of a kind of effective prediction is stopped and to get on or off the bus the good fast bus station service information system of number and number of waiting, data message practicality and bus and platform psgrs. No. of measuring method.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is:
A kind of fast bus station service information system, described service information system comprises central processing platform, gps positioning subsystem, bus information subsystem, platform subsystem and can calculate the bayonet socket subsystem of each road-section average OD road speed or time in real time, wherein
Central processing platform, for the bus rapid transit line information that responsible storage gate position, corresponding BBS (Bulletin Board System) are shielded and stopped, stores the car plate of each public transit vehicle, seating capacity, fully loaded number and ownership line information;
Bus information subsystem and gps positioning subsystem, for gathering and storing the car plate of public transit vehicle, position, current passenger number, the time of stopping each station on the way and the number information that gets on or off the bus;
Platform subsystem, holds for gathering each time the ridership entering platform and wait;
Bayonet socket subsystem, also infers the time of public transit vehicle in-track platform accordingly for obtaining the average speeds of public transit vehicle in each section; To be arrived at a station data prediction model measuring and calculating bus arrival data by bus rapid transit;
Show corresponding information in the BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen display of platform: seating capacity in car, fully loaded number, estimate arrival time, number of people in car and whether being fully loaded with when arriving at a station.
Quick public transport arrives at a station the measuring method of information, and described measuring method comprises the following steps:
(1), set up bus rapid transit and to arrive at a station data prediction model, the described bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station comprises following parameter: the distance L of vehicle and this platform, vehicle arrival station required time T, vehicle reach the stylish number N that arrives at a station in this station, enter take this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform probability P, in platform this bus wait number W in real time, number D that vehicle is got off to the number U waiting the number H of this bus during this station, vehicle is got on the bus at this platform, vehicle at this platform, vehicle be to number of people in car C during this station;
The ratio being set in the passenger that platform is got off meets local linear rule, namely predicts the number that platform is got off as follows:
Predictor formula 1:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-1 regular bus of getting off in xth regular bus=
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-2 regular bus of getting off in xth-1 regular bus
Also namely:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger's ratio of getting off in xth regular bus=2* xth-1 regular bus;
What be set in the ridership entering platform meets local linear rule, and platform, according to the every n minute statistics once nearly n minute number that enters the station, forms the ordered series of numbers that enters the station, N
1, N
2..., N
k..., then have:
Predictor formula 2, k=3,4,5 ...:
N
k-N
k-1=N
k-1-N
k-2
Also namely: N
k=2*N
k-1-N
k-2
The distance L of next class of bus and front platform is obtained by GPS positioning subsystem;
Next class of bus is arrived front platform required time T and is obtained by bayonet socket subsystem, and obtain manner is as follows:
(1.1.1) vehicle location is obtained according to GPS positioning system;
(1.1.2) section from current vehicle position in-track platform process is obtained according to vehicle location;
(1.1.3) the average running time in real time in each section is obtained;
(1.1.4) temporal summation of vehicle through these sections is calculated;
It is as follows that next class of bus reaches the stylish number N obtain manner that arrives at a station of front platform:
(1.2.1) slave station station subsystem obtains two n minute number N that enter the station above
1and N
2;
(1.2.2) arrive this station required time T according to vehicle, be converted into several n minute,
And then form ordered series of numbers N
1, N
2, N
3..., N
k, k=[T/n];
(1.2.3) N is calculated successively according to predictor formula 2
3..., N
k;
(1.2.4) vehicle reaches the stylish number N=N that arrives at a station in this station
3+ N
4+ ..., N
k;
(1.2.5) due to the every n of system minute statistics one secondary data, therefore often within n minute, rerun once
Newly to arrive at a station number;
Enter in the passenger of certain platform the probability P obtain manner taking each bar circuit bus rapid transit as follows:
(1.3.1) initialization: add up the platform number of a nearest Zhou Ge road quick public transport when this platform is stopped and number of getting on the bus, this bus is got on the bus total number of persons and the ratio of total ridership entering platform, is the probability P that passenger takes corresponding quick public transport circuit
0, namely all time point P initialization values are all set to P
0;
(1.3.2) P value update algorithm: when certain moment public transit vehicle arrives this platform, passenger loading rear vehicle is not carried full, and the passenger namely taking this road public transport gets on the bus all, and remaining passenger does not all take the public transport of this circuit, then this time point P value adjusts as follows:
P=P/2+(get on the bus ridership/arrive at a station time platform to wait total passenger)/2
Calculate each time point thus and enter the probability taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform;
The number W that waits in real time of each bar public bus network of certain platform obtains in the following manner:
(1.4.1) establish this platform to have k bar bus routes, the personnel of entering the station take the general of each bar circuit
Rate is P successively
1, P
2... P
k;
(1.4.2) initialization, setting platform total number of persons is W
always, then each bar circuit number of waiting is followed successively by:
W
1=W
always* P
1
W
2=W
always* P
2
…
W
k=W
always* P
k
(1.4.3) W value update algorithm:
I. each passenger enters platform needs to swipe the card, and often come in a people, and each bus waiting number added value is followed successively by P
1, P
2... P
k1.4.
Ii. when this platform come by certain road bus, the number of getting on the bus is U
1, underload or U when if vehicle leaves
1>W
1, then think that this road public transport passenger that waits all gets on the bus, therefore by W
1be set to 0, other public transport number of waiting in real time is all multiplied by (W
always-U
1)/W
always
If be fully loaded with and U when iii. vehicle leaves
1<=W
1, then:
W
always=W
always-U
1
W
1=W
1—U
1
Other are constant;
The number N* that when number W+ next regular bus of waiting in real time taking this regular vehicle in vehicle to this platform of number H=waiting this bus during certain platform arrives this platform, expectation can arrive newly arrives the probability P that passenger takes this route;
(2) when next time regular bus arrives certain platform, number of people in car C, the number U got on the bus and the number D that gets off predict as follows:
(2.1) set between a regular bus and this platform and have k platform, number consecutively be No. 1 platform, No. 2 platform ..., kth platform, described kth platform is this platform;
(2.2) number calculating number of people in car C when next regular bus arrives jth platform successively and get off, j=1,2 ..., k;
Step 2.2.1. makes j=1, number of people in car C during No. 1 platform
1be real-time number in current vehicle, can obtain from bus information subsystem, be i.e. number of people in car C during arrival No. 1 platform
1known;
Step 2.2.2. obtains by step (1) the number H waiting this bus when next regular bus arrives jth platform
j;
Several Z that has a full house of next time regular bus of step 2.2.3. obtains from bus information subsystem, therefore next regular bus to be got on the bus number U at jth platform
jby following formulae discovery:
U
j=MIN（H
j，Z-C
j）
Number of people in car and the number of getting off of the arrival jth platform of nearest two regular buses of this circuit of step 2.2.4. all obtain from bus information subsystem, calculate passenger's ratio that nearest two regular buses are got off thus;
Step 2.2.5., according to step 2.2.2 result of calculation, applies mechanically the ratio of getting off that predictor formula 1 can calculate passenger when next regular bus arrives jth platform;
Step 2.2.6. calculates next regular bus number D that gets off at jth platform
j, D
jnumber of people in car C during=in-track platform
j* the ratio of getting off of passenger when next time regular bus arrives jth platform;
When next time regular bus of step 2.2.7. rolls jth platform away from, number of people in car predicted value is by following formulae discovery:
C
j+1=C
j+U
j-D
j
Get j=2 successively, 3 ..., k, repeats step 2.2.2 ~ 2.2.7, can calculate next regular bus and arrive the 2nd, 3 ..., number of people in car C, the number U got on the bus and the number D got off during k platform.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is mainly manifested in: 1, by obtaining the loading condition arriving our station in bus rapid transit circuit through each road public transit vehicle of bus platform, citizen can in conjunction with vehicle arrival time, to select to take in acceptable time range the public transit vehicle of " free time "; Meanwhile, the present invention also measurable go out each platform to get on or off the bus number and number of waiting, for sending of bus rapid transit provides reference; 2, for citizen select to provide when taking bus rapid transit more fully to help.Citizen except the distance obtaining each road bus rapid transit and our station and except the time arriving this platform, can also obtain all kinds of information of arriving at a station of bus, when load exceedes a certain limit when bus rapid transit arrival our station, point out this car " to be fully loaded with " on platform.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is system construction drawing of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is that acquisition quick public transport vehicle of the present invention arrives at a station when arriving certain platform the process flow diagram of information;
Fig. 3 is next time regular bus of the present invention number of people in car, the number of getting on the bus and measuring and calculating process flow diagram of number of getting off when arriving certain platform.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the invention will be further described.
With reference to Fig. 1 ~ Fig. 3, a kind of fast bus station service information system, comprise central processing platform, gps positioning subsystem, bus information subsystem, platform subsystem and the bayonet socket subsystem of each road-section average OD road speed (or time) can be calculated in real time, wherein
The information such as central processing platform is the core of system, the bus rapid transit circuit be responsible for storing gate position, corresponding BBS (Bulletin Board System) is shielded, stopped, store the information such as the car plate of each public transit vehicle, seating capacity, fully loaded number and ownership circuit;
Bus information subsystem and the collection of gps positioning subsystem also store the car plate of public transit vehicle, position, current passenger number, the time of stopping each station on the way and the information such as number of getting on or off the bus;
The each time end of platform subsystem collection enters the ridership that platform is waited;
Bayonet socket subsystem obtains the time that the average speeds of public transit vehicle in each section also infers public transit vehicle in-track platform accordingly; To be arrived at a station data prediction model measuring and calculating bus arrival data by bus rapid transit; The BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen display of platform show corresponding information (seating capacity in car, fully loaded number, estimate arrival time, arrive at a station time number of people in car, whether fully loaded etc.).
Quick public transport arrives at a station the measuring method of information, and described measuring method comprises the following steps:
(1), set up bus rapid transit and to arrive at a station data prediction model, the described bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station comprises following parameter: the distance L of vehicle and this platform, vehicle arrival station required time T, vehicle reach the stylish number N that arrives at a station in this station, enter take this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform probability P, in platform this bus wait number W in real time, number D that vehicle is got off to the number U waiting the number H of this bus during this station, vehicle is got on the bus at this platform, vehicle at this platform, vehicle be to number of people in car C during this station;
Number of people in car during vehicle departures (leaving from station) is also the number of people in car during vehicle arrival next stop
The ratio being set in the passenger that platform is got off meets local linear rule, namely predicts the number that platform is got off as follows:
Predictor formula 1:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-1 regular bus of getting off in xth regular bus=
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-2 regular bus of getting off in xth-1 regular bus
Also namely:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger's ratio of getting off in xth regular bus=2* xth-1 regular bus;
What be set in the ridership entering platform meets local linear rule, and platform gets 5 according to every n(n, also can get other numerals such as 10 grades) minute statistics once nearly n minute number that enters the station, form the ordered series of numbers that enters the station, N
1, N
2..., N
k...Then have:
Predictor formula 2(k=3,4,5 ...):
N
k-N
k-1=N
k-1-N
k-2
Also namely: N
k=2*N
k-1-N
k-2
The distance L of next class of bus and front platform is obtained by GPS positioning subsystem;
Next class of bus is arrived front platform required time T and is obtained by bayonet socket subsystem, and obtain manner is as follows:
(1.1.1) vehicle location is obtained according to GPS positioning system;
(1.1.2) section from current vehicle position in-track platform process is obtained according to vehicle location;
(1.1.3) the average running time in real time in each section is obtained;
(1.1.4) temporal summation of vehicle through these sections is calculated;
It is as follows that next class of bus reaches the stylish number N obtain manner that arrives at a station of front platform:
(1.2.1) slave station station subsystem obtains two n minute number N that enter the station above
1and 9N
2;
(1.2.2) arrive this station required time T according to vehicle, be converted into several n minute,
And then form ordered series of numbers N
1, N
2, N
3..., N
k(k=[T/n]);
(1.2.3) N is calculated successively according to predictor formula 2
3..., N
k;
(1.2.4) vehicle reaches the stylish number N=N that arrives at a station in this station
3+ N
4+ ..., N
k;
(1.2.5) due to the every n of system minute statistics one secondary data, therefore often within n minute, rerun once
Newly to arrive at a station number;
Enter in the passenger of certain platform the probability P obtain manner taking each bar circuit bus rapid transit as follows:
(1.3.1) initialization: add up the platform number of a nearest Zhou Ge road quick public transport when this platform is stopped and number of getting on the bus, this bus is got on the bus total number of persons and the ratio of total ridership entering platform, is the probability P that passenger takes corresponding quick public transport circuit
0, namely all time point P initialization values are all set to P
0;
(1.3.2) P value update algorithm: when certain moment public transit vehicle arrives this platform, passenger loading rear vehicle is not carried full, and the passenger namely taking this road public transport gets on the bus all, and remaining passenger does not all take the public transport of this circuit, then this time point P value adjusts as follows:
P=P/2+(get on the bus ridership/arrive at a station time platform to wait total passenger)/2
Calculate each time point thus and enter the probability taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform.
The number W that waits in real time of each bar public bus network of certain platform obtains in the following manner:
(1.4.1) establish this platform to have k bar bus routes, the personnel of entering the station take the general of each bar circuit
Rate is P successively
1, P
2... P
k;
(1.4.2) initialization, setting platform total number of persons is W
always, then each bar circuit number of waiting is followed successively by:
W
1=W
always* P
1
W
2=W
always* P
2
…
W
k=W
always* P
k
(1.4.3) W value update algorithm:
I. each passenger enters platform needs to swipe the card, and often come in a people, and each bus waiting number added value is followed successively by P
1, P
2... P
k1.4.
Ii. when this platform come by certain road bus (for ease of setting forth, for 1 bus), the number of getting on the bus is U
1(this numerical value can obtain from bus information subsystem); Underload or U when if vehicle leaves
1>W
1, then think that the 1 tunnel public transport passenger that waits all gets on the bus, therefore by W
1be set to 0, other public transport number of waiting in real time is all multiplied by (W
always-U
1)/W
always
If be fully loaded with and U when iii. vehicle leaves
1<=W
1, then:
W
always=W
always-U
1
W
1=W
1—U
1
Other are constant;
The number N* that when number W+ next regular bus of waiting in real time taking this regular vehicle in vehicle to this platform of number H=waiting this bus during certain platform arrives this platform, expectation can arrive newly arrives the probability P that passenger takes this route;
(2) when next time regular bus arrives certain platform, number of people in car C, the number U got on the bus and the number D that gets off predict as follows:
(2.1) set between a regular bus and this platform and have k platform (containing this platform), number consecutively be No. 1 platform, No. 2 platform ..., kth platform (being this platform)
(2.2) calculate successively next regular bus arrive jth (j=1,2 ..., k) number of people in car C and the number of getting off during number platform:
Step 2.2.1. makes j=1, number of people in car C during No. 1 platform
1be real-time number in current vehicle, can obtain from bus information subsystem, be i.e. number of people in car C during arrival No. 1 platform
1known;
Step 2.2.2. obtains by step (1) the number H waiting this bus when next regular bus arrives jth platform
j;
Several Z that has a full house of next time regular bus of step 2.2.3. obtains from bus information subsystem, therefore next regular bus to be got on the bus number U at jth platform
jby following formulae discovery:
U
j=MIN（H
j，Z-C
j）
Number of people in car and the number of getting off of the arrival jth platform of nearest two regular buses of this circuit of step 2.2.4. all obtain from bus information subsystem, calculate passenger's ratio that nearest two regular buses are got off thus;
Step 2.2.5., according to step 2.2.2 result of calculation, applies mechanically the ratio of getting off that predictor formula 1 can calculate passenger when next regular bus arrives jth platform;
Step 2.2.6. calculates next regular bus number D that gets off at jth platform
j(number of people in car C during=in-track platform
j* the ratio of getting off of passenger when next time regular bus arrives jth platform)
When next time regular bus of step 2.2.7. rolls jth platform (also namely arriving jth+No. 1 platform) away from, number of people in car predicted value is by following formulae discovery:
C
j+1=C
j+U
j-D
j
Get j=2 successively, 3 ..., k, repeats step 2.2.2 ~ 2.2.7, can calculate next regular bus and arrive the 2nd, 3 ..., number of people in car C, the number U got on the bus and the number D got off during k platform.K value generally can not be greater than 3 in actual applications, therefore can not produce too big error.
Example: Fig. 3 is the unidirectional operation situation schematic diagram of 1 road quick public transport circuit at 8:41 one day.For ease of setting forth, assuming that known conditions is as follows:
1, the distance between each website is 3000 meters
2, public transit vehicle be seating capacity 60, fully loaded several 80.
3, the time (namely sailing and roll away from the same time point of platform into represent) that bus is stopped at platform is ignored.
4, namely bus platform only stops 1 road quick public transport on the way, and namely entering the probability P taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform is 1, and all passengers of entering the station all take 1 road quick public transport.
The present embodiment illustrates for 4# ~ 6# platform, and other platforms are similar:
The first step, obtains 4# platform bus service information and issues at 4# platform:
Now next regular bus of 4# platform is the 8th regular bus;
It is 500 meters from the gps subsystem distance got next bus to 5# platform;
Be 15,000 ms/h from the real-time average speed in the section that bayonet socket subsystem is known between 3 ~ 4# platform, therefore time that next bus arrives 5# platform it is 2 minutes; The time arriving 5# platform is 8:43.
Obtaining passenger inside the vehicle's number when the 8th regular bus rolls away from from 3# platform from bus information subsystem is 38 people, and when being also the 8th regular bus stop 4# platform, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 38 people.
Calculate next bus number of getting off at 4# platform: it is 2/36 at the ratio that 4# platform is got off that slave station station subsystem obtains the 7th regular bus, 6th regular bus is 2/36 at the ratio that 4# platform is got off, when 8th regular bus arrives 4# platform, passenger inside the vehicle number is 38, therefore the 6th regular bus to be got off ridership=(2 × 2/36-2/36) × 38=2.1 ≈ 2 people at 4# platform
Calculate the number of waiting during next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 4# platform:
It is 13 people that slave station station subsystem obtains the current station number of waiting for bus, the number entering this station between 8:36 ~ 8:41 is 11 people, the number entering this station between 8:31 ~ 8:36 is 9 people, infer that the number entering this station between 8:41 ~ 8:46 is 2 × 11-9=13 people accordingly, next coastiong of average minute clock 13/5=2.6 people arrives 4# platform also needs 2 minutes, will have 5 people and enter platform (2.6 × 2=5.2 ≈ 5).Therefore the number of waiting during next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 4# platform is 13+5=18 people
When next time bus leaves 4# platform, number of people in car is MIN (80,38+18-2)=54 people; Also namely this car arrive 5# platform time number of people in car be 54 people;
Following information is issued: " 1 bus, distance our station 500 meters, arrives (500 meters ÷ 15,000 ms/h=2 minutes) after 2 minutes, ridership 38 people when arriving at a station, and estimates that the number of getting off is 2 people " at 4# platform.
Second step, obtains 5# platform bus service information and issues at 5# platform:
Now next regular bus of 5# platform is the 6th regular bus;
It is 1200 meters from the GPS subsystem distance got the 6th class of bus to 5# platform;
Be 15,000 ms/h from the real-time average speed in the section that bayonet socket subsystem is known between 4# ~ 5# platform, thus the time that this car arrives 5# platform be 4.8 minutes (1200 meters ÷ 15,000 ms/h=4.8 minutes), the time arriving 5# platform is 8:46.
Obtaining passenger inside the vehicle number when the 6th regular bus rolls away from from 4# platform from bus information subsystem is 55 people, and when also namely the 6th regular bus sails 5# into, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 55 people.
Calculate next bus number of getting off at 5# platform: it is 5/46 at the ratio that 5# platform is got off that slave station station subsystem obtains the 5th regular bus, 4th regular bus is 4/43 at the ratio that 5# platform is got off, when 6th regular bus arrives 5# platform, passenger inside the vehicle number is 38, therefore the 6th regular bus to be got off ridership=(2 × 5/46-4/43) × 55=6.8 ≈ 7 people at 5# platform
Calculate the number of waiting during next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 5# platform:
It is 23 people that slave station station subsystem obtains the current station number of waiting for bus, the number entering this station between 8:36 ~ 8:41 is 9 people, the number entering this station between 8:31 ~ 8:36 is 8 people, infer that the number entering this station between 8:41 ~ 8:46 is 2 × 9-8=10 people accordingly, next coastiong of average minute clock 10/5=2 people arrives 5# platform also needs 4.8 minutes, will have 10 people and enter platform (2 × 4.8=9.6 ≈ 10).Therefore the number of waiting during next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 4# platform is 23+10=33 people
When 6th class of bus leaves 5# platform, number of people in car is MIN (80,55+33-7)=80 people; When being also the 6th class of bus arrival 6# platform, number of people in car is 80 people (being fully loaded with);
Following information is issued: " 1 bus, distance our station 1200 meters, arrives after 5 minutes, ridership 55 people when arriving at a station, and estimates that the number of getting off is 7 people " at 5# platform.
3rd step, obtains 6# platform bus service information and issues at 6# platform:
Now next regular bus of 6# platform is also the 6th regular bus;
It is 4200 meters from the gps subsystem distance got the 6th class of bus to 6# platform;
It is 15,000 ms/h from the real-time average speed in the section that bayonet socket subsystem is known between 4# ~ 5# platform, the real-time average speed in the section between 4# ~ 5# platform is 12,000 ms/h, therefore this car arrival 6# platform needs 19.8 minutes (1200 meters of ÷, 15,000 ms/h of+3000 meters of ÷ 12,000 ms/h=19.8 minutes), the time arriving 5# platform is 9:01.
Namely when knowing that the 6th regular bus rolls away from from 5# platform by 8.22, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 55 people, and when also the 6th regular bus sails 6# into, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 80 people (being fully loaded with).
Calculate next bus number of getting off at 6# platform: it is 18/50 at the ratio that 6# platform is got off that slave station station subsystem obtains the 5th regular bus, 4th regular bus is 17/47 at the ratio that 6# platform is got off, when 6th regular bus arrives 6# platform, passenger inside the vehicle number is 80, therefore the 6th regular bus to be got off ridership=(2 × 18/50-17/47) × 80=28.7 ≈ 29 people at 6# platform
Calculate the number of waiting during next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 6# platform:
It is 5 people that slave station station subsystem obtains the current station number of waiting for bus, the number entering this station between 8:36 ~ 8:41 is 7 people, the number entering this station between 8:31 ~ 8:36 is 7 people, infer that the number entering this station between 8:41 ~ 8:46 is 2 × 7-7=7 people accordingly, next coastiong of average minute clock 7/5=1.4 people arrives 5# platform also needs 19.8 minutes, will have 27 people and enter platform (1.4 × 19.8=27.2 ≈ 27).Therefore the number of waiting during next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 6# platform is 5+27=32 people
Number of people in car=MIN (80,80+32-29)=80 people when 6th regular bus leaves 6# platform; When being also the 6th class of bus arrival 7# platform, number of people in car is 80 people (being fully loaded with);
Following information is issued: " 1 bus, distance our station 4200 meters, arrives after 20 minutes, ridership 80 people (being fully loaded with) when arriving at a station, and estimates that the number of getting off is 29 people " at 6# platform.
Claims (1)
1. quick public transport arrives at a station a measuring method for information, it is characterized in that: described measuring method comprises the following steps:
(1), set up bus rapid transit and to arrive at a station data prediction model, the described bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station comprises following parameter: the distance L of vehicle and platform, vehicle arrive this platform required time T, vehicle reaches the stylish number N that arrives at a station of this platform, enter take this bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform probability P, in platform this quick public transport circuit wait number W in real time, number D that vehicle is got off to the number U waiting the number H of this regular vehicle during this platform, vehicle is got on the bus at this platform, vehicle at this platform, vehicle be to number of people in car C during this platform;
The ratio being set in the passenger that platform is got off meets local linear rule, namely predicts the number that platform is got off as follows:
Predictor formula 1:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger's ratio=xth-1 regular bus of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-1 regular bus of getting off in xth regular bus is also namely:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-xth-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger's ratio of getting off in xth regular bus=2* xth-1 regular bus;
What be set in the ridership entering platform meets local linear rule, and platform, according to the every n minute statistics once nearly n minute number that enters the station, forms the ordered series of numbers that enters the station, N
1, N
2..., N
k..., then have:
Predictor formula 2, k=3,4,5 ...:
N
k-N
k-1＝N
k-1-N
k-2
Also namely: N
k=2*N
k-1-N
k-2
The distance L of next class of bus and front platform is obtained by GPS positioning subsystem;
Next class of bus is arrived front platform required time T and is obtained by bayonet socket subsystem, and obtain manner is as follows:
(1.1.1) vehicle location is obtained according to GPS positioning system;
(1.1.2) section arriving this platform process from current vehicle position is obtained according to vehicle location;
(1.1.3) the average running time in real time in each section is obtained;
(1.1.4) temporal summation of vehicle through these sections is calculated;
It is as follows that next class of bus reaches the stylish number N obtain manner that arrives at a station of front platform:
(1.2.1) slave station station subsystem obtains two n minute number N that enter the station above
1and N
2;
(1.2.2) arrive this platform required time T according to vehicle, be converted into several n minute, and then form ordered series of numbers N
1, N
2, N
3..., N
k, k=[T/n];
(1.2.3) N is calculated successively according to predictor formula 2
3..., N
k;
(1.2.4) vehicle reaches the stylish number N=N that arrives at a station of this platform
3+ N
4+ ..., N
k;
(1.2.5) due to the every n of system minute statistics one secondary data, therefore number of once newly arriving at a station of often reruning for n minute;
Enter in the passenger of certain platform the probability P obtain manner taking each bar circuit bus rapid transit as follows:
(1.3.1) initialization: add up the platform number of a nearest Zhou Ge road quick public transport when this platform is stopped and number of getting on the bus, this bus is got on the bus total number of persons and the ratio of total ridership entering platform, is the probability P that passenger takes corresponding quick public transport circuit
0, namely all time point P initialization values are all set to P
0;
(1.3.2) P value update algorithm: when certain moment public transit vehicle arrives this platform, passenger loading rear vehicle is not carried full, namely the passenger taking this circuit bus gets on the bus all, and remaining passenger does not all take the public transport of this circuit, then this time point P value adjusts as follows:
P=P/2+ (during ridership of getting on the bus/arrive at a station platform wait total passenger)/2
Calculate each time point thus and enter the probability taking this circuit bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform;
The number W that waits in real time of each bar public bus network of certain platform obtains in the following manner:
(1.4.1) establish this platform to have k bar bus routes, the probability that the personnel of entering the station take each bar circuit is P successively
1, P
2... P
k;
(1.4.2) initialization, setting platform total number of persons is W
always, then each bar circuit number of waiting is followed successively by:
W
1=W
always* P
1
W
2=W
always* P
2
…
W
k=W
always* P
k
(1.4.3) W value update algorithm:
I. each passenger enters platform needs to swipe the card, and often come in a people, and each bus waiting number added value is followed successively by P
1, P
2... P
k;
Ii. when this platform come by certain road bus, the number of getting on the bus is U
1, underload or U when if vehicle leaves
1>W
1, then think that this road public transport passenger that waits all gets on the bus, therefore by W
1be set to 0, other public transport number of waiting in real time is all multiplied by (W
always-U
1)/W
always;
If be fully loaded with and U when iii. vehicle leaves
1<=W
1, then:
W
always=W
always-U
1
W
1＝W
1—U
1
Other are constant;
The number N* that when number W+ next regular bus of waiting in real time taking this regular vehicle in vehicle to this platform of number H=waiting this regular vehicle during certain platform arrives this platform, expectation can arrive newly arrives the probability P that passenger takes this circuit;
(2) when next time regular bus arrives certain platform, number of people in car C, the number U got on the bus and the number D that gets off predict as follows:
(2.1) set between a regular bus and this platform and have k platform, number consecutively be No. 1 platform, No. 2 platform ..., kth platform, described kth platform is this platform;
(2.2) number of people in car C when next regular bus arrives jth platform is calculated successively
jwith the number of getting off, j=1,2 ..., k;
Step 2.2.1. makes j=1, number of people in car C during No. 1 platform
1be real-time number in current vehicle, can obtain from bus information subsystem, be i.e. number of people in car C during arrival No. 1 platform
1known;
Step 2.2.2. obtains by step (1) the number H waiting this bus when next regular bus arrives jth platform
j;
Several Z that has a full house of next time regular bus of step 2.2.3. obtains from bus information subsystem, therefore next regular bus to be got on the bus number U at jth platform
jby following formulae discovery:
U
j＝MIN(H
j，Z-C
j)
Number of people in car and the number of getting off of the arrival jth platform of nearest two regular buses of this circuit of step 2.2.4. all obtain from bus information subsystem, calculate passenger's ratio that nearest two regular buses are got off thus;
Step 2.2.5., according to step 2.2.2 result of calculation, applies mechanically the ratio of getting off that predictor formula 1 can calculate passenger when next regular bus arrives jth platform;
Step 2.2.6. calculates next regular bus number D that gets off at jth platform
j, D
jnumber of people in car C during=in-track platform
j* the ratio of getting off of passenger when next time regular bus arrives jth platform;
When next time regular bus of step 2.2.7. rolls jth platform away from, number of people in car predicted value is by following formulae discovery:
C
j+1＝C
j+U
j-D
j
Get j=2 successively, 3 ..., k, repeats step 2.2.2 ~ 2.2.7, can calculate next regular bus and arrive the 2nd, 3 ..., number of people in car C, the number U got on the bus and the number D got off during k platform.
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