CN103532172A - Multistage reserve coordination method based on set dynamic classification - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a multistage reserve coordination method based on set dynamic classification, and belongs to the technical field of electric power distribution. According to the method, a tendency reserve set is used for guaranteeing consistency of planned output and load change tendency, then, a rapid reserve set is used for preventing supply and demand unbalance caused by predicted deviations of loads, and finally, a real-time reserve set is used for flexibly changing generated output in real time when super-short term fluctuation of the loads happens; and different reserve sets are used sequentially for load adjustment, so that stable and reliable power supply is realized finally. The different reserve sets perform respective duties and support each other on the premise that respective duties are completed, self-positioning is adjusted appropriately, and the sets assist other types of sets to complete the capacity adjustment task.

Description

A kind of multistage standby coordination approach based on unit dynamic cataloging

Technical field

The invention belongs to distributing electric power technical field, relate in particular to a kind of multistage standby coordination approach based on unit dynamic cataloging.

Background technology

Electric power has cannot large scale storage, send out the instantaneous feature completing for transmission & distribution, and electric load constantly fluctuation along with time, consumption habit, climatic influences, for guaranteeing the reliability of supply of electric power, grid company needs real time coordination electricity power enterprise to adjust generated output.Under traditional scheduler pattern, only will guarantee that power supply and demand, as Consideration, takes identical scheduling means for different scheduling situations, ignore the efficiency of coordinated scheduling and the requirement of low-carbon environment-friendly.

Summary of the invention

For the traditional scheduler pattern of mentioning in background technology, in the problem existing aspect the efficiency of coordinated scheduling and low-carbon environment-friendly, the present invention proposes a kind of multistage standby coordination approach based on unit dynamic cataloging.

A multistage standby coordination approach for unit dynamic cataloging, is characterized in that, described method specifically comprises the following steps:

Step 1: load prediction and forecast: the historical data based on past three days, the social power load situation of change of real-time rolling forecast in 30 minutes futures, and according to the Load Regulation demand of definite following 15 minutes, 5 minutes of load variations situation and 1 minute three time period;

Step 2: computer-assisted classification: by the time of power scheduling be divided into 15 minutes, three grades of 5 minutes and 1 minutes; Simultaneously, needs according to load variations in time scale and unit reaction speed, machine set type is dynamically divided, and being about to dispatcher component is the standby unit of trend, quick standby unit and real-time standby unit, determines the reserve capacity of the standby unit of three classes and corresponding machine set type;

Step 3: rolling forecast and dynamically adjustment: along with the propelling of time, standby, the quick standby and real-time standby unit of the trend of calling successively; Along with load dynamic change, realize the harmonious of the Load Regulation demand in 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute three grades of moment of load and reserve capacity; If standby deficiency, dynamically adjusts between first existing unit, if still not enough, provide alert, transfer to artificial treatment.

In described step 1, the historical data based on past three days, the process of the social power load situation of change of rolling forecast in 30 minutes futures is in real time:

Take current time as benchmark, try to achieve respectively the load mean value of following 0-30 minute corresponding with first three day:

Y _i=(Y _i,1+Y _i,2+Y _i,3)/3,

Wherein, i=0,5,10,15,20,25,30 are respectively the time point of getting in following 0-30 minute; Y _{i, 1}be the historical load of this time point before 1 day, Y _{i, 2}be the historical load of this time point before 2 days, Y _{i, 3}it is the historical load of this time point before 3 days;

Actual load D this moment ₀represent, following 5-30 minute required load prediction value, uses respectively D ₅, D ₁₀, D ₁₅, D ₂₀, D ₂₅, D ₃₀represent:

D ₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₅；

D ₁₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₁₀；

D ₁₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₁₅；

D ₂₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₂₀；

D ₂₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₂₅；

D ₃₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₃₀。

In described step 1, according to load variations situation, determine that the process of the Load Regulation demand of 15 minutes, 5 minutes future and 1 minute three time point is:

1) 15 minutes Load Regulation demand D _qfor the load prediction values of following 15 minutes and generation schedule exert oneself poor, that is:

D _q=Q _f-Q _p

Wherein, Q<sub TranNum="139">f</sub>for load prediction value, Q<sub TranNum="140">p</sub>for plan is exerted oneself; D<sub TranNum="141">q</sub>>0 o'clock indicate extra duty demand, D<sub TranNum="142">q</sub>indicate that unnecessary generation schedule exerts oneself at<0 o'clock;

2) 5 minutes Load Regulation demand D _kaverage for same period load prediction of front N day deviation:

$D_k=\frac{1}{N}\underset{l=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{e}_l$

Wherein, e<sub TranNum="148">l</sub>be this moment load prediction deviation of l day, the actual value of loading and load prediction value poor; D<sub TranNum="149">k</sub>>0 o'clock represent that early stage prediction data is less than normal, D<sub TranNum="150">k</sub>represent that prediction data is bigger than normal in earlier stage at<0 o'clock;

3) 1 minute Load Regulation demand D _sfor load is from undulating value in 1 minute, the peak load in a minute and minimum load poor:

D _s=D _m,Max-D _m,Min

Wherein, D _{m, Max}, D _{m, Min}represent respectively the peak load and the minimum load that within m minute, occur.

In described step 2, the standby unit of trend, quick standby unit and the corresponding machine set type of real-time standby unit are respectively:

The corresponding machine set type of the standby unit of described trend is: 600MW and above fired power generating unit;

The corresponding machine set type of described quick standby unit is: Hydropower Unit and 600MW and following fired power generating unit;

The corresponding machine set type of described real-time standby unit is: automatic-generation-control unit AGC.

In described step 2, determine that the process of the reserve capacity of the standby unit of three classes is:

1), for the standby unit of trend, the computing formula of j standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jqs}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{jq}}-Q_{\mathrm{jqp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jqx}}=Q_{\mathrm{jqp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{jq}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein: Q _jqs, Q _jqxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j the standby unit of trend; Q _jqprepresent that j trend guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jqrepresent that the maximum technology of the standby unit of j trend exerts oneself, MinQ _jqrepresent that j the standby unit minimum technology of trend exert oneself; The reserve capacity scope of Hydropower Unit is [0, Hydropower Unit rated output]; The reserve capacity scope of fired power generating unit is [50% fired power generating unit rated output, 100% fired power generating unit rated output];

2) computing formula of quick standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jks}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{jk}}-Q_{\mathrm{jkp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jkx}}=Q_{\mathrm{jkp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{jk}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, Q _jks, Q _jkxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j quick standby unit; Q _jkprepresent that j quick guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jkrepresent that the maximum technology of the quick standby unit of j exerts oneself, MinQ _jkrepresent that j quick standby unit minimum technology exerts oneself;

3) computing formula of real-time standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jss}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{js}}-Q_{\mathrm{jsp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jsx}}=Q_{\mathrm{isp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{js}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, Q _jss, Q _jsxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j real-time standby unit; Q _jsprepresent that j real-time guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jsrepresent that the maximum technology of the real-time standby unit of j exerts oneself, MinQ _jsrepresent that j real-time standby unit minimum technology exerts oneself;

The standby unit of trend reserve capacity >=15 minute Load Regulation demand;

Quick standby unit reserve capacity >=5 minute Load Regulation demand;

Real-time standby unit reserve capacity >=1 minute Load Regulation demand.

In described step 3, along with the propelling of time, standby, the quick standby and real-time standby unit of the trend of calling successively, the Load Regulation demand in realization 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute three grades of moment of load and the harmonious process of reserve capacity are:

1) for the adjustment of the standby unit of trend

The adjustment of the standby unit of trend is to adjust and meet for the load trend change in 15 minutes:

Work as D _q>0 o'clock, if ∑ Q _jqs>=D _q, the standby unit generated output of trend is improved to D _q; Actual power is exerted oneself and equal load prediction value; Otherwise, to other province power purchases;

Work as D<sub TranNum="204">q</sub><0 o'clock, if ∑ Q<sub TranNum="205">jqx</sub>>=D<sub TranNum="206">q</sub>, the standby unit generated output of trend is reduced | D<sub TranNum="207">q</sub>|, actual power is exerted oneself and equal load prediction value; Otherwise, to other province sales of electricity;

By the standby adjustment of trend, can effectively realize the trend balance of workload demand and generated output.But because load prediction exists certain deviation, therefore, propelling along with the time, the ultra-short term that 0-15 divides predicts the outcome more accurate, may still there is certain deviation with the generated output after the standby unit adjustment of trend in new load prediction data, now, just need to introduce quick standby unit further adjusts;

2) quick standby unit adjustment

At present, the load prediction precision of grid company remains on 99.3% left and right, still has certain deviation.Quick standby adjustment is the adjustment of exerting oneself of taking for 0-15 minute internal cause reply load prediction deviation:

Work as D _k>0, if ∑ Q _jks>=D _k, quick standby unit generated output is improved to D _k, make up load prediction deviation; Otherwise, to the standby unit of trend, temporarily transfer generating capacity, maximum secondment demand is D _k-∑ Q _jks, the standby unit of trend is guaranteeing, under the prerequisite of self-regulation task, to provide adjustment capacity, if the standby unit of trend, all in maximum output state, without capacity more than needed, is waited for the further adjusting of real-time standby unit;

Work as D<sub TranNum="219">k</sub><0 o'clock, if ∑ Q<sub TranNum="220">jkx</sub>>=D<sub TranNum="221">k</sub>, quick standby unit generated output is reduced | D<sub TranNum="222">k</sub>|; Otherwise, to other province sales of electricity;

3) real-time standby unit adjustment

By above-mentioned two-stage unit, adjust, generated output and workload demand kept in balance, but due to uncontrollable factors such as user power utilization custom, weather conditions, may still there is certain fluctuation in load variations, this class fluctuation is predictable low, therefore, by real-time standby unit---AGC unit is adjusted.

AGC is the closed-loop control system of utilizing scheduling monitor computer, passage, terminal unit, execution (distribution) device, generating set automation device etc. to form, and the frequency of monitoring, adjustment electric power system, to control generator output.Drop into the unit of AGC-AUTO mode operation, be responsible for tracking prediction deviation and area control error ACE, the exerting oneself of automatic frequency adjustment unit.

The invention has the beneficial effects as follows, Each performs its own functions for different standby units, under the prerequisite of self task, supports each other having guaranteed, suitably adjusts self poisoning, and auxiliary other types unit completes capacity and adjusts task.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is traditional scheduler method flow diagram provided by the invention;

Fig. 2 is multistage standby coordination optimization scheduling flow figure provided by the invention;

Fig. 3 is multistage standby coordination optimization dispatching method time adjustment figure provided by the invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, preferred embodiment is elaborated.Should be emphasized that following explanation is only exemplary, rather than in order to limit the scope of the invention and to apply.

Fig. 1 is traditional scheduler method flow diagram provided by the invention.In Fig. 1, under traditional scheduler pattern, if load higher than generation schedule, control centre can distribute to stand-by generator group according to certain method by the load having more.Conventional distribution method has:

(1) according to unit installed capacity, by sharing of load, give different units pro rata;

(2) priority allocation, to clean energy resourcies such as water power, is secondly efficiently large fired power generating unit, is common fired power generating unit again.

Under traditional scheduler pattern, within every 5 minutes, carry out a power scheduling, and only have this level, cannot realize scheduling in advance, may cause the wasting of resources of standby unit, increase dispatcher's working strength, meanwhile, may reduce power generation dispatching precision.

Fig. 2 is multistage standby coordination optimization scheduling flow figure provided by the invention.Described method specifically comprises the following steps:

Step 1: load prediction and forecast: the historical data based on past three days, the social power load situation of change of real-time rolling forecast in 30 minutes futures, and according to the Load Regulation demand of definite following 15 minutes, 5 minutes of load variations situation and 1 minute three time period;

Historical data based on past three days, the process of the social power load situation of change of rolling forecast in 30 minutes futures is in real time:

Take current time as benchmark, try to achieve respectively the load mean value of following 0-30 minute corresponding with first three day:

Y _i=(Y _i,1+Y _i,2+Y _i,3)/3,

Wherein, i=0,5,10,15,20,25,30 are respectively the time point of getting in following 0-30 minute; Y _{i, 1}be the historical load of this time point before 1 day, Y _{i, 2}be the historical load of this time point before 2 days, Y _{i, 3}it is the historical load of this time point before 3 days;

Actual load D this moment ₀represent, following 5-30 minute required load prediction value, uses respectively D ₅, D ₁₀, D ₁₅, D ₂₀, D ₂₅, D ₃₀represent:

D ₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₅；

D ₁₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₁₀；

D ₁₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₁₅；

D ₂₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₂₀；

D ₂₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₂₅；

D ₃₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₃₀；

The process of determining the Load Regulation demand of 15 minutes, 5 minutes future and 1 minute three time point according to load variations situation is:

1) 15 minutes Load Regulation demand D _qfor the load prediction values of following 15 minutes and generation schedule exert oneself poor, that is:

D _q=Q _f-Q _p

Wherein, Q<sub TranNum="296">f</sub>for load prediction value, Q<sub TranNum="297">p</sub>for plan is exerted oneself; D<sub TranNum="298">q</sub>>0 o'clock indicate extra duty demand, D<sub TranNum="299">q</sub>indicate that unnecessary generation schedule exerts oneself at<0 o'clock;

2) 5 minutes Load Regulation demand D _kaverage for same period load prediction of front N day deviation:

$D_k=\frac{1}{N}\underset{l=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{e}_l$

Wherein, e<sub TranNum="305">l</sub>be this moment load prediction deviation of l day, the actual value of loading and load prediction value poor; D<sub TranNum="306">k</sub>>0 o'clock represent that early stage prediction data is less than normal, D<sub TranNum="307">k</sub>represent that prediction data is bigger than normal in earlier stage at<0 o'clock;

3) 1 minute Load Regulation demand D _sfor load is from undulating value in 1 minute, the peak load in a minute and minimum load poor:

D _s=D _m,Max-D _m,Min

Wherein, D _{m, Max}, D _{m, Min}represent respectively the peak load and the minimum load that within m minute, occur;

Step 2: computer-assisted classification: by the time of power scheduling be divided into 15 minutes, three grades of 5 minutes and 1 minutes; Simultaneously, needs according to load variations in time scale and unit reaction speed, machine set type is dynamically divided, and being about to dispatcher component is the standby unit of trend, quick standby unit and real-time standby unit, determines the reserve capacity of the standby unit of three classes and corresponding machine set type;

The standby unit of trend, quick standby unit and the corresponding machine set type of real-time standby unit are respectively:

The corresponding machine set type of the standby unit of described trend is: 600MW and above fired power generating unit;

The corresponding machine set type of described quick standby unit is: Hydropower Unit and 600MW and following fired power generating unit;

The corresponding machine set type of described real-time standby unit is: automatic-generation-control unit AGC;

The process of determining the reserve capacity of the standby unit of three classes is:

1), for the standby unit of trend, the computing formula of j standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jqs}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{jq}}-Q_{\mathrm{jqp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jqx}}=Q_{\mathrm{jqp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{jq}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein: Q _jqs, Q _jqxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j the standby unit of trend; Q _jqprepresent that j trend guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jqrepresent that the maximum technology of the standby unit of j trend exerts oneself, MinQ _jqrepresent that j the standby unit minimum technology of trend exert oneself; The reserve capacity scope of Hydropower Unit is [0, Hydropower Unit rated output]; The reserve capacity scope of fired power generating unit is [50% fired power generating unit rated output, 100% fired power generating unit rated output];

2) computing formula of quick standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jks}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{jk}}-Q_{\mathrm{jkp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jkx}}=Q_{\mathrm{jkp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{jk}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, Q _jks, Q _jkxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j quick standby unit; Q _jkprepresent that j quick guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jkrepresent that the maximum technology of the quick standby unit of j exerts oneself, MinQ _jkrepresent that j quick standby unit minimum technology exerts oneself;

3) computing formula of real-time standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jss}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{js}}-Q_{\mathrm{jsp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jsx}}=Q_{\mathrm{isp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{js}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, Q _jss, Q _jsxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j real-time standby unit; Q _jsprepresent that j real-time guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jsrepresent that the maximum technology of the real-time standby unit of j exerts oneself, MinQ _jsrepresent that j real-time standby unit minimum technology exerts oneself;

The standby unit of trend reserve capacity >=15 minute Load Regulation demand;

Quick standby unit reserve capacity >=5 minute Load Regulation demand;

Real-time standby unit reserve capacity >=1 minute Load Regulation demand.

Step 3: rolling forecast and dynamically adjustment: along with the propelling of time, standby, the quick standby and real-time standby unit of the trend of calling successively; Along with load dynamic change, realize the harmonious of the Load Regulation demand in 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute three grades of moment of load and reserve capacity; If standby deficiency, dynamically adjusts between first existing unit, if still not enough, provide alert, transfer to artificial treatment.

Along with the propelling of time, standby, the quick standby and real-time standby unit of the trend of calling successively, the Load Regulation demand in realization 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute three grades of moment of load and the harmonious process of reserve capacity are:

1) for the adjustment of the standby unit of trend

The adjustment of the standby unit of trend is to adjust and meet for the load trend change in 15 minutes:

Work as D _q>0 o'clock, if ∑ Q _jqs>=D _q, the standby unit generated output of trend is improved | D _q|; Actual power is exerted oneself and equal load prediction value; Otherwise, to other province power purchases;

Work as D<sub TranNum="363">q</sub><0 o'clock, if ∑ Q<sub TranNum="364">jqx</sub>>=D<sub TranNum="365">q</sub>, the standby unit generated output of trend is reduced | D<sub TranNum="366">q</sub>|, actual power is exerted oneself and equal load prediction value; Otherwise, to other province sales of electricity;

By the standby adjustment of trend, can effectively realize the trend balance of workload demand and generated output.But because load prediction exists certain deviation, therefore, propelling along with the time, the ultra-short term that 0-15 divides predicts the outcome more accurate, may still there is certain deviation with the generated output after the standby unit adjustment of trend in new load prediction data, now, just need to introduce quick standby unit further adjusts.

2) quick standby unit adjustment

At present, the load prediction precision of grid company remains on 99.3% left and right, still has certain deviation.Quick standby adjustment is the adjustment of exerting oneself of taking for 0-15 minute internal cause reply load prediction deviation:

Work as D _k>0, if ∑ Q _jks>=D _k, quick standby unit generated output is improved to D _k, make up load prediction deviation; Otherwise, to the standby unit of trend, temporarily transfer generating capacity, maximum secondment demand is D _k-∑ Q _jks, the standby unit of trend is guaranteeing, under the prerequisite of self-regulation task, to provide adjustment capacity, if the standby unit of trend, all in maximum output state, without capacity more than needed, is waited for the further adjusting of real-time standby unit;

Work as D<sub TranNum="378">k</sub><0 o'clock, if ∑ Q<sub TranNum="379">jkx</sub>>=D<sub TranNum="380">k</sub>, quick standby unit generated output is reduced | D<sub TranNum="381">k</sub>|; Otherwise, to other province sales of electricity;

3) real-time standby unit adjustment

By above-mentioned two-stage unit, adjust, generated output and workload demand kept in balance, but due to uncontrollable factors such as user power utilization custom, weather conditions, may still there is certain fluctuation in load variations, this class fluctuation is predictable low, therefore, by real-time standby unit---AGC unit is adjusted.

AGC is the closed-loop control system of utilizing scheduling monitor computer, passage, terminal unit, execution (distribution) device, generating set automation device etc. to form, and the frequency of monitoring, adjustment electric power system, to control generator output.Drop into the unit of AGC-AUTO mode operation, be responsible for tracking prediction deviation and area control error ACE, the exerting oneself of automatic frequency adjustment unit.

Fig. 3 is multilevel coordination Optimization Scheduling time adjustment figure provided by the invention.In Fig. 3, take time point A as example, finally realize actual load level and the generated output that A orders be consistent if think, in advance within 15 minutes, call the standby unit of trend, the prediction that plan is exerted oneself order with A is loaded and is consistent; As time goes on, when time left is in the time of 5 minutes, may there is deviation with the data of 15 minutes in the load data that now A point upgrades, call quick standby unit, and load deviation is partly eliminated; When approaching A point and only having 1 minute, call real-time standby unit, eliminate at any time the impact of accident on load.

The above; be only the present invention's embodiment preferably, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to this, is anyly familiar with in technical scope that those skilled in the art disclose in the present invention; the variation that can expect easily or replacement, within all should being encompassed in protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection range of claim.

Claims (6)

1. the multistage standby coordination approach based on unit dynamic cataloging, is characterized in that, described method specifically comprises the following steps:

Step 1: load prediction and forecast: the historical data based on past three days, the social power load situation of change of real-time rolling forecast in 30 minutes futures, and according to the Load Regulation demand of definite following 15 minutes, 5 minutes of load variations situation and 1 minute three time period;

Step 2: computer-assisted classification: by the time of power scheduling be divided into 15 minutes, three grades of 5 minutes and 1 minutes; Simultaneously, needs according to load variations in time scale and unit reaction speed, machine set type is dynamically divided, and being about to dispatcher component is the standby unit of trend, quick standby unit and real-time standby unit, determines the reserve capacity of the standby unit of three classes and corresponding machine set type;

Step 3: rolling forecast and dynamically adjustment: along with the propelling of time, standby, the quick standby and real-time standby unit of the trend of calling successively; Along with load dynamic change, realize the harmonious of the Load Regulation demand in 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute three grades of moment of load and reserve capacity; If standby deficiency, dynamically adjusts between first existing unit, if still not enough, provide alert, transfer to artificial treatment.

2. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step 1, and the historical data based on past three days, the process of the social power load situation of change of rolling forecast in 30 minutes futures is in real time:

Take current time as benchmark, try to achieve respectively the load mean value of following 0-30 minute corresponding with first three day:

Y _i=(Y _i,1+Y _i,2+Y _i,3)/3；

Wherein, i=0,5,10,15,20,25,30 are respectively the time point of getting in following 0-30 minute; Y _{i, 1}be the historical load of this time point before 1 day, Y _{i, 2}be the historical load of this time point before 2 days, Y _{i, 3}it is the historical load of this time point before 3 days;

Actual load D this moment ₀represent, following 5-30 minute required load prediction value, uses respectively D ₅, D ₁₀, D ₁₅, D ₂₀, D ₂₅, D ₃₀represent:

D ₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₅；

D ₁₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₁₀；

D ₁₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₁₅；

D ₂₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₂₀；

D ₂₅=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₂₅；

D ₃₀=(D ₀/Y ₀)*Y ₃₀。

3. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step 1, determines that the process of the Load Regulation demand of 15 minutes, 5 minutes future and 1 minute three time point is according to load variations situation:

1) 15 minutes Load Regulation demand D _qfor the load prediction values of following 15 minutes and generation schedule exert oneself poor, that is:

D _q=Q _f-Q _p

Wherein, Q<sub TranNum="452">f</sub>for load prediction value, Q<sub TranNum="453">p</sub>for plan is exerted oneself; D<sub TranNum="454">q</sub>>0 o'clock indicate extra duty demand, D<sub TranNum="455">q</sub>indicate that unnecessary generation schedule exerts oneself at<0 o'clock;

2) 5 minutes Load Regulation demand D _kaverage for same period load prediction of front N day deviation:

$D_k=\frac{1}{N}\underset{l=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{e}_l$

Wherein, e<sub TranNum="461">l</sub>be this moment load prediction deviation of l day, the actual value of loading and load prediction value poor; D<sub TranNum="462">k</sub>>0 o'clock represent that early stage prediction data is less than normal, D<sub TranNum="463">k</sub>represent that prediction data is bigger than normal in earlier stage at<0 o'clock;

3) 1 minute Load Regulation demand D _sfor load is from undulating value in 1 minute, the peak load in a minute and minimum load poor:

D _s=D _m,Max-D _m,Min

Wherein, D _{m, Max}, D _{m, Min}represent respectively the peak load and the minimum load that within m minute, occur.

4. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step 2, the standby unit of trend, quick standby unit and the corresponding machine set type of real-time standby unit are respectively:

The corresponding machine set type of the standby unit of described trend is: 600MW and above fired power generating unit;

The corresponding machine set type of described quick standby unit is: Hydropower Unit and 600MW and following fired power generating unit;

The corresponding machine set type of described real-time standby unit is: automatic-generation-control unit AGC.

5. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step 2, determines that the process of the reserve capacity of the standby unit of three classes is:

1), for the standby unit of trend, the computing formula of j standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jqs}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{jq}}-Q_{\mathrm{jqp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jqx}}=Q_{\mathrm{jqp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{jq}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein: Q _jqs, Q _jqxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j the standby unit of trend; Q _jqprepresent that j trend guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jqrepresent that the maximum technology of the standby unit of j trend exerts oneself, MinQ _jqrepresent that j the standby unit minimum technology of trend exert oneself; The reserve capacity scope of Hydropower Unit is [0, Hydropower Unit rated output]; The reserve capacity scope of fired power generating unit is [50% fired power generating unit rated output, 100% fired power generating unit rated output];

2) computing formula of quick standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jks}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{jk}}-Q_{\mathrm{jkp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jkx}}=Q_{\mathrm{jkp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{jk}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, Q _jks, Q _jkxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j quick standby unit; Q _jkprepresent that j quick guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jkrepresent that the maximum technology of the quick standby unit of j exerts oneself, MinQ _jkrepresent that j quick standby unit minimum technology exerts oneself;

3) computing formula of real-time standby unit reserve capacity is:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_{\mathrm{jss}}={\mathrm{MaxQ}}_{\mathrm{js}}-Q_{\mathrm{jsp}}\\ Q_{\mathrm{jsx}}=Q_{\mathrm{isp}}-{\mathrm{MinQ}}_{\mathrm{js}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, Q _jss, Q _jsxthe upper capacitance-adjustable and the lower capacitance-adjustable that represent respectively j real-time standby unit; Q _jsprepresent that j real-time guest machine batch total marks power; MaxQ _jsrepresent that the maximum technology of the real-time standby unit of j exerts oneself, MinQ _jsrepresent that j real-time standby unit minimum technology exerts oneself;

The standby unit of trend reserve capacity >=15 minute Load Regulation demand;

Quick standby unit reserve capacity >=5 minute Load Regulation demand;

Real-time standby unit reserve capacity >=1 minute Load Regulation demand.

6. method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step 3, propelling along with the time, standby, the quick standby and real-time standby unit of the trend of calling successively, the Load Regulation demand in realization 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 1 minute three grades of moment of load and the harmonious process of reserve capacity are:

1) for the adjustment of the standby unit of trend

The adjustment of the standby unit of trend is to adjust and meet for the load trend change in 15 minutes:

Work as D _q>0 o'clock, if ∑ Q _jqs>=D _q, the standby unit generated output of trend is improved to D _q; Actual power is exerted oneself and equal load prediction value; Otherwise, to other province power purchases;

Work as D<sub TranNum="520">q</sub><0 o'clock, if ∑ Q<sub TranNum="521">jqx</sub>>=D<sub TranNum="522">q</sub>, the standby unit generated output of trend is reduced | D<sub TranNum="523">q</sub>|, actual power is exerted oneself and equal load prediction value; Otherwise, to other province sales of electricity;

2) quick standby unit adjustment

Work as D _k>0, if ∑ Q _jks>=D _k, quick standby unit generated output is improved to D _k, make up load prediction deviation; Otherwise, to the standby unit of trend, temporarily transfer generating capacity, maximum secondment demand is D _k-∑ Q _jks, the standby unit of trend is guaranteeing, under the prerequisite of self-regulation task, to provide adjustment capacity, if the standby unit of trend, all in maximum output state, without capacity more than needed, is waited for the further adjusting of real-time standby unit;

Work as D<sub TranNum="533">k</sub><0 o'clock, if ∑ Q<sub TranNum="534">jkx</sub>>=D<sub TranNum="535">k</sub>, quick standby unit generated output is reduced | D<sub TranNum="536">k</sub>|; Otherwise, to other province sales of electricity;

3) real-time standby unit adjustment

Drop into the unit of AGC-AUTO mode operation, be responsible for tracking prediction deviation and area control error ACE, the exerting oneself of automatic frequency adjustment unit.

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