CN103413178A - Sampling-based park-and-ride facility attraction demand quantitative classification calculation method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a quantitative classification calculation method for quantitatively describing the demands of different positions in an urban park-and-ride facility attraction demand range and belongs to the urban traffic planning field. The method comprises the following steps that: a virtual analysis network of a park-and-ride facility attraction demand range area is constructed according to demand point samples and geographic coordinate positions which are obtained through investigation; the distribution density of sampled demand points is calculated through using a kernel function in probability theory; and the total demand density of each position in the facility attraction demand range is calculated and classified through using an adaptive kernel density analysis theory and a numerical value superposition method. The quantitative classification calculation method can be utilized to quantitatively analyze demand intensity distribution of each point at different directions and different distances in the park-and-ride facility attraction demand range, and can classify the demands in the facility attraction demand range through the total demand density, and has a favorable role of reference in the determination and analysis on distribution characteristics of the park-and-ride facility attraction demand range, and provides a new method for park-and-ride facility demand forecast.

Description

Park and shift facility based on sampling attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods

Technical field

The present invention relates to the quantification rank calculation methods that a kind of quantitative description city parking Transfer Infrastructure attracts diverse location demand in range of needs, belong to the Urban Traffic Planning field, it can be used for weighing the demand intensity size that the park and shift facility attracts each point in range of needs, analyze the distribution of attraction demand, and then provide new method foundation for the demand forecast of park and shift facility.

Background technology

Park and shift (Park& Ride) as a kind of traffic trip pattern, typically refer to (or congestion regions) periphery in inner city and set up the park and shift facility, encourage private car's traveler to stop at it, the transfer public transport enters the center, city, with this, alleviate the traffic pressure of downtown area, promote the utilization of urban public tranlport system.Therefore, become a kind of travel pattern that many cities, the world solve urban transport problems.At present, the park and shift Facilities Construction of China is at the early-stage, has all carried out park-and-ride planning and pilot as big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai.It is the prerequisite of carrying out the park and shift demand forecast that the park and shift facility is attracted to the analysis of demand, because China's park and shift facility is less and data deficiency, attracts the research of demand also deeply not launch for the park and shift facility.

For the park and shift facility, attract the analysis and research of demand abroad, main according to the survey of demands data to a plurality of park and shift facilities, determine the basic configuration that attracts range of needs, if parabola shaped, oval etc., and then qualitative analysis attracts the general trend of the factors vary such as Demand distance, owing to attracting range of needs, it is the zone of a two dimension, different directions in zone, the demand distribution characteristics that different distance attracts is different, how to come quantitative description facility periphery diverse location to attract size and the intensity of demand, and then carry out the demand forecast of reliable park and shift facility, need to launch deep research.

In a word, for the park and shift facility, attract at present the research of demand both at home and abroad, mainly be based on the determining and the trend analysis of the factors vary such as Demand distance of attraction range of needs of investigation, also do not have the quantitative test facility to attract the demand size of diverse location in range of needs and the distribution of intensity, therefore, carry out the research that the park and shift facility attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods and seem particularly necessary.

Summary of the invention

Based on above analysis, the present invention proposes the quantification rank calculation methods that the park and shift facility attracts demand, the demand that diverse location attracts in the park and shift facility attracts range of needs, as analytic target, has proposed a kind of method that effective measurement park and shift facility attracts demand size in range of needs.

The present invention is based on park and shift facility periphery difference and go out the otherness that on line direction, different trip distance, the attraction demand distributes, emphasis has considered that Transfer Infrastructure attracts the demand intensity that in range of needs, diverse location attracts.Kernel function in applied probability attracts demand sample point function clear and definite, smooth with, unbounded to mean each park and shift facility, obtaining it distributes to the factors influencing demand that peripheral region produces, by a plurality of attraction demand sample application functional value stacking methods, obtain attracting aggregate demand Density Distribution in range of needs near continuous facility, and then can clearly analyze the demand distribution situation in park and shift facility attraction range of needs.

Characteristics of the present invention are to sample by inquiry, use theory of probability theory and method, quantificational description park and shift facility attracts the distribution that in range of needs, difference goes out the demand of line direction, different trip distances, for the demand analysis of park and shift facility provides new method, also for better carrying out the park and shift demand forecast, provide foundation.

Technical thought of the present invention is characterized as:

1, the park and shift facility is carried out to the questionnaire sample survey, acquiring demand point sample, its effective sample volume n >=50.And establishment park and shift facility attracts the Virtual Analysis grid in range of needs zone.

2, by the kernel function in theory of probability, attract demand point to carry out the quantitative test of factors influencing demand distribution to each park and shift facility.

3, by adaptability cuclear density analysis theories, by a plurality of attraction demand sample application numerical value stacking methods, obtain aggregate demand distribution density value and distribution.

4, based on the aggregate demand distribution density, attract the demand intensity of scope to carry out classification to the park and shift facility.

For achieving the above object, the present invention adopts following steps:

(1) determine the coordinate position of facility and sampling demand point

According to the sample that investigation is extracted, on Googleearth, obtain the latitude and longitude coordinates (Dx of each demand sample point i _i, Dy _i), and definite park and shift facility latitude and longitude coordinates (P _x, P _y).Facility attracts each position in range of needs to mean with coordinate (x, y).

(2) create the park and shift facility and attract the surface analysis grid

The probability distribution of samples points, tentatively delimit the facility demand and attract scope according to demand, attract zone to be divided into equidistantly and the less Virtual Analysis grid of spacing the park and shift facility, and the grid intersection point is as the point that calculates aggregate demand density.

(3) calculate the demand point distribution density of respectively sampling

In order to obtain demand density value continuous in Transfer Infrastructure attraction scope, each sampling demand point is meaned by level and smooth kernel function, the impact of its sampling demand point on the demand intensity of its peripheral region generation, depend on demand sample point (Dx, Dy) to position (x, y) distance, also depend on the shape of kernel function and the scope (being called bandwidth) of kernel function value.The demand density that level and smooth Gauss (normal state) kernel function in the probability of use opinion is calculated each sample demand point neighborhood zone distributes.

$K\left(u\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}\exp [-\frac{1}{2}{u}^2],-\&infin;<u<\&infin;---\left(1\right)$

Wherein:

K: kernel function, select Gauss's (normal state) kernel function here.

(4) calculate the aggregate demand density that facility attracts each position in range of needs

Suppose that it is separate sampling between the sample demand point obtained, for the aggregate demand density of each position in whole facility attraction scope, its numerical value can be regarded as the demand density sum of all sampling sample demand points in its neighborhood scope.Adopt adaptability cuclear density analysis theories, position (x, y) gross density estimated value f (x, y) of locating, for:

$f(x,y)=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\frac{1}{h_n}\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_i}K\left(\frac{d_i}{h_n{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_i}\right)---\left(2\right)$

Wherein:

D _i: field regional location (x, y) is to the distance of demand sample point i;

H _n: initial fixed-bandwidth, h _n0, when using gaussian kernel function, h _n=0.9 σ n ^-1/5, σ is sample standard deviation;

λ _i: the bandwidth weighting factor of demand point i.

The concrete calculation procedure of gross density estimated value is:

Step 1

According to the sample demand point extracted, calculate sample standard deviation σ, obtain initial fixed-bandwidth value h _n, according to the demand density estimation formulas based on fixed-bandwidth, calculate the tentative density Estimation value of the fixed-bandwidth of each position

Meet $\tilde{f}(x,y)>0,i=1,...,n,$

$\tilde{f}(x,y)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{nh}}_n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}K\left(\frac{d_i}{h_n}\right)---\left(3\right)$

Step 2

According to the density Estimation value of fixed-bandwidth, computation bandwidth weight factor λ _i,

${\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_i={\{\tilde{f}(x,y)/g\}}^{-\mathrm{\&alpha;}}---\left(4\right)$

$\log g=\frac{1}{N}\mathrm{\&Sigma;}\log \tilde{f}(x,y)---\left(5\right)$

Wherein:

α: sensitivity parameter meets 0≤α≤1.

Step 3

Application aggregate demand density Estimation formula (3) obtains the demand density estimated value of position.

(5) according to the aggregate demand density value, attract range of needs to carry out the demand intensity classification to facility

Can be divided into following Three Estate:

Core attracts zone: the demand intensity of attraction is very large, is that the main demand of facility attracts scope.

The general zone that attracts: the demand intensity of attraction is larger, is that the demand that facility is general attracts scope.

Edge attracts zone: the demand intensity of attraction is less, is that the demand at facility edge attracts scope.

The accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 park and shift facility of the present invention attracts the range of needs demand density to calculate and classification step figure;

Fig. 2 park and shift facility of the present invention attracts the range of needs virtual grid to divide figure;

In figure, 1-virtual grid, 2-park and shift facility.

Fig. 3 park and shift facility demand attracts scope demand intensity classification schematic diagram

Embodiment

Chosen north, the Tiantong Yuan park and shift facility of Beijing, application park and shift facility demand attracts the requirement quantization computing method of scope, according to investigation sample, carry out north, Tiantong Yuan park and shift facility and attracted the calculating of demand density, and carried out the classification of facility demand attraction scope demand intensity.

North, Tiantong Yuan park and shift facility is the terminus of Subway Line 5, between North 5th Ring Road and N.6th Ring RD, with city's central line distance, be about 20km, formally come into operation in October, 2007, park and shift parking position number is 438, the parking lot utilization factor is higher, is the park and shift facility of plugging into subway and public transport, and the car trip person rear main transfer mode of transportation of stopping is subway.

Take behavior investigation (revealed preference, RP) method, in park and shift parking lot, north, Tiantong Yuan, carry out survey, the respondent is for using car to carry out the traveler of park and shift, the investigator holds questionnaire inquiry car park and shift person's departure place and destination, fills out a questionnaire face to face, reclaims then and there.Control time is on June 21st, 2010.80 of effective samples are collected in investigation altogether.

Stage one: the park and shift traveler that investigation is obtained, as sampling demand sample point, according to the geographic position, departure place, obtains the latitude and longitude coordinates (Dx that the park and shift facility attracts demand sample point i on Googleearth _i, Dy _i) and park and shift facility position coordinates (Px, Py).The latitude and longitude coordinates of north, Tiantong Yuan park and shift facility is (116.407138,40.082314).

Table 1 park and shift demand sample point coordinate (Dx, Dy)

Numbering	Longitude	Latitude	Numbering	Longitude	Latitude	Numbering	Longitude	Latitude
									1	116.451853	40.231688	28	116.413441	40.124834	55	116.384310	40.103165
2	116.231841	40.220512	29	116.415078	40.123189	56	116.371215	40.103082
									3	116.242733	40.211595	30	116.442410	40.122911	57	116.424577	40.102788
4	116.401747	40.178616	31	116.557114	40.121538	58	116.368168	40.102223
									5	116.393115	40.178390	32	116.447947	40.120503	59	116.209875	40.101888
6	116.401374	40.177951	33	116.412373	40.119654	60	116.719759	40.089586
									7	116.380187	40.176676	34	116.435434	40.118771	61	116.445102	40.089335
8	116.414734	40.158613	35	116.413885	40.118484	62	116.352736	40.086514
									9	116.421112	40.135375	36	116.412204	40.118151	63	116.415139	40.086454
10	116.642016	40.134277	37	116.433558	40.117820	64	116.410141	40.086084
									11	116.423952	40.131968	38	116.406331	40.117489	65	116.334183	40.084385
12	116.640665	40.131241	39	116.414215	40.116739	66	116.325464	40.079550
									13	116.413837	40.131178	40	116.412614	40.116372	67	116.418831	40.073408
14	116.382408	40.131014	41	116.467733	40.115419	68	116.433185	40.071602

15	116.414543	40.130873	42	116.369442	40.115327	69	116.430210	40.071453
									16	116.410372	40.130429	43	116.414440	40.114683	70	116.427962	40.070399
17	116.410580	40.129541	44	116.452729	40.107872	71	116.432680	40.069550
									18	116.415578	40.129014	45	116.385819	40.106886	72	116.422342	40.067242
19	116.406197	40.128834	46	116.420341	40.106674	73	116.420338	40.065202
									20	116.432177	40.128655	47	116.426097	40.106586	74	116.429147	40.065147
21	116.426145	40.127059	48	116.425016	40.106393	75	116.415975	40.064305
									22	116.416690	40.126785	49	116.435307	40.106239	76	116.430815	40.063975
23	116.412050	40.126430	50	116.421277	40.105507	77	116.422279	40.063822
									24	116.414608	40.125744	51	116.405972	40.105417	78	116.420893	40.062018
25	116.427571	40.125740	52	116.428034	40.105017	79	116.350764	40.017031
									26	116.414369	40.125721	53	116.384352	40.103809	80	116.469340	39.997061
27	116.433951	40.124878	54	116.387888	40.103543	?	?	?

Stage two: create the park and shift facility and attract the surface analysis grid

Park and shift facility demand attraction scope is divided into to equally spaced Virtual Analysis network, the grid scope is that lower left corner latitude and longitude coordinates is (116.100,39.950), upper right corner latitude and longitude coordinates is (116.800,40.300) rectangular region, and on the length and width direction, be divided into the mesh lines that is 100 equal portions.

Stage three: calculate the aggregate demand density that facility attracts each position in range of needs

Sensitivity parameter α gets 0.5, and sample standard deviation σ is 0.078, initial fixed-bandwidth h _nBe 0.0292, use the concrete calculation procedure 1～3 of formula (1)～(5) and gross density estimated value to calculate the aggregate demand density that facility attracts each position in range of needs, can obtain the aggregate demand density of each intersection point of virtual grid of 100*100, partial data is as shown in table 2 below.

Aggregate demand density in table 2 park and shift facility range of needs

Longitude	Latitude	Demand density	Longitude	Latitude	Demand density	Longitude	Latitude	Demand density	Longitude	Latitude	Demand density
												116.1035	39.9535	0.0067781	116.2785	39.9535	0.0126694	116.4535	39.9535	0.0170021	116.6285	39.9535	0.0101208
116.1105	39.9535	0.0069333	116.2855	39.9535	0.0131346	116.4605	39.9535	0.0167119	116.6355	39.9535	0.0099025
												116.1175	39.9535	0.007152	116.2925	39.9535	0.0133894	116.4675	39.9535	0.0164191	116.6425	39.9535	0.0097698
116.1245	39.9535	0.0072584	116.2995	39.9535	0.0138856	116.4745	39.9535	0.0161246	116.6495	39.9535	0.0095593
												116.1315	39.9535	0.0074906	116.3065	39.9535	0.0141594	116.4815	39.9535	0.0158292	116.6565	39.9535	0.0093536
116.1385	39.9535	0.0076048	116.3135	39.9535	0.0146883	116.4885	39.9535	0.0154009	116.6635	39.9535	0.0091527
												116.1455	39.9535	0.0077864	116.3205	39.9535	0.0151098	116.4955	39.9535	0.015238	116.6705	39.9535	0.0088833
116.1525	39.9535	0.0080406	116.3275	39.9535	0.0154141	116.5025	39.9535	0.0149435	116.6775	39.9535	0.0086935
												116.1595	39.9535	0.0081677	116.3345	39.9535	0.015995	116.5095	39.9535	0.0145255	116.6845	39.9535	0.0085781
116.1665	39.9535	0.0084381	116.3415	39.9535	0.0164591	116.5165	39.9535	0.0143593	116.6915	39.9535	0.0083275
												116.1735	39.9535	0.0085747	116.3485	39.9535	0.0167955	116.5235	39.9535	0.0140705	116.6985	39.9535	0.0081512

116.1805	39.9535	0.0087883	116.3555	39.9535	0.0174314	116.5305	39.9535	0.0136672	116.7055	39.9535	0.0080441
												116.1875	39.9535	0.0090851	116.3625	39.9535	0.0177899	116.5375	39.9535	0.0133868	116.7125	39.9535	0.0078114
116.1945	39.9535	0.0093155	116.3695	39.9535	0.0183094	116.5445	39.9535	0.013222	116.7195	39.9535	0.0077098
												116.2015	39.9535	0.0094735	116.3765	39.9535	0.0190014	116.5515	39.9535	0.0129462	116.7265	39.9535	0.0074883
116.2085	39.9535	0.0097998	116.3835	39.9535	0.0193927	116.5585	39.9535	0.0126743	116.7335	39.9535	0.0073328
												116.2155	39.9535	0.0099699	116.3905	39.9535	0.0193541	116.5655	39.9535	0.0124066	116.7405	39.9535	0.0071811
116.2225	39.9535	0.0103177	116.3975	39.9535	0.0189683	116.5725	39.9535	0.0120408	116.7475	39.9535	0.0070333
												116.2295	39.9535	0.0105008	116.4045	39.9535	0.0188903	116.5795	39.9535	0.0117843	116.7545	39.9535	0.0068892
116.2365	39.9535	0.01078	116.4115	39.9535	0.0184862	116.5865	39.9535	0.0116301	116.7615	39.9535	0.0067487
												116.2435	39.9535	0.011163	116.4185	39.9535	0.018386	116.5935	39.9535	0.011285	116.7685	39.9535	0.0066643
116.2505	39.9535	0.0113676	116.4255	39.9535	0.0181214	116.6005	39.9535	0.0111357	116.7755	39.9535	0.0064783
												116.2575	39.9535	0.0117763	116.4325	39.9535	0.0176986	116.6075	39.9535	0.0108048	116.7825	39.9535	0.0063483
116.2645	39.9535	0.0119964	116.4395	39.9535	0.0174229	116.6145	39.9535	0.0105719	116.7895	39.9535	0.0062705
												116.2715	39.9535	0.0124325	116.4465	39.9535	0.0171423	116.6215	39.9535	0.0104307	116.7965	39.9535	0.0061458

Stage four: the park and shift facility attracts the classification of range of needs demand intensity

According to the aggregate demand density calculated, it is presented on 2 d plane picture with different colors, as shown in Figure 3, can clearly be seen that the park and shift facility attracts the distribution of demand in range of needs, its facility attraction scope presents ellipse, larger in the demand attracted away from the downtown area direction, less in the demand attracted near the downtown area direction, the trip that difference goes out line direction and trip distance distributes different, by park and shift, attract range of needs to carry out the demand intensity classification, obtain:

When aggregate demand density >=0.03, this zone is that the core demand of park and shift facility attracts zone.

When 0.02≤aggregate demand density<0.03, this zone is that the primary demand of park and shift facility attracts zone.

When aggregate demand density<0.02, this zone is that the edge demand of park and shift facility attracts zone.

According to different sucting strengths, distribute and classification, just can carry out the demand forecast of park and shift facility, thereby plan and definite foundation that provides of scale for the park and shift facility layout.

Be more than several exemplary embodiments of the present invention, enforcement of the present invention is not limited to this.

Claims (5)

1. the park and shift facility based on sampling attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods, and it is characterized in that: described computing method comprise the following steps:

Step 1: according to the demand point sample that investigation obtains, determine the coordinate position of facility and sampling demand point, create the Virtual Analysis grid that the park and shift facility attracts the scope zone;

Step 2: attract demand point to carry out the quantitative test of factors influencing demand distribution by the kernel function in theory of probability to each park and shift facility, obtain the demand point distribution density of respectively sampling;

Step 3: adopt adaptability cuclear density analysis theories, application numerical value stacking method, calculate aggregate demand density and distribution that facility attracts each position in range of needs;

Step 4: attract the demand intensity of scope to carry out classification to the park and shift facility.

2. the park and shift facility based on sampling according to claim 1 attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods, it is characterized in that: in described step 1, according to the sample that investigation is extracted, on Googleearth, obtain the latitude and longitude coordinates (Dx of each demand sample point i _i, Dy _i), and definite park and shift facility latitude and longitude coordinates (P _x, P _y); The probability distribution of samples points, tentatively delimit the facility demand and attract scope according to demand, attract zone to be divided into equidistantly and the less Virtual Analysis grid of spacing the park and shift facility, and the grid intersection point is as the point that calculates aggregate demand density.

3. the park and shift facility based on sampling according to claim 1 attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods, it is characterized in that: in described step 2, in order to obtain demand density value continuous in Transfer Infrastructure attraction scope, each sampling demand point is meaned by level and smooth kernel function, the impact of its sampling demand point on the demand intensity of its peripheral region generation, depend on demand sample point (Dx, Dy) to position (x, y) distance, also depend on the shape of kernel function and the scope of kernel function value; The demand density that level and smooth gaussian kernel function in the probability of use opinion calculates each sample demand point neighborhood zone distributes, and its computing formula is:

Wherein:

K: kernel function, select gaussian kernel function here.

4. the park and shift facility based on sampling according to claim 1 attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods, it is characterized in that: in described step 3, suppose that it is separate sampling between the sample demand point obtained, for the aggregate demand density of each position in whole facility attraction scope, its numerical value can be regarded as the demand density sum of all sampling sample demand points in its neighborhood scope; Adopt adaptability cuclear density analysis theories, position (x, y) gross density estimated value f (x, y) of locating is:

Wherein:

D _i: field regional location (x, y) is to the distance of demand sample point i;

H _n: initial fixed-bandwidth, h _n0, when using gaussian kernel function, h _n=0.9 σ n ^-1/5, σ is sample standard deviation;

λ _i: the bandwidth weighting factor of demand point i;

The concrete computation process of gross density estimated value is:

(1) according to the sample demand point extracted, calculate sample standard deviation σ, obtain initial fixed-bandwidth value h _n, according to the demand density estimation formulas based on fixed-bandwidth, calculate the tentative density Estimation value of the fixed-bandwidth of each position

Meet

(2) according to the density Estimation value of fixed-bandwidth, computation bandwidth weight factor λ _i,

Wherein: α: sensitivity parameter meets 0≤α≤1;

(3) application aggregate demand density Estimation formula (3) obtains the demand density estimated value of position.

5. the park and shift facility based on sampling according to claim 1 attracts the requirement quantization rank calculation methods, it is characterized in that: in described step 4, according to the aggregate demand density calculated, it is presented on 2 d plane picture with different colors, can clearly be seen that the park and shift facility attracts the distribution of demand in range of needs, to the park and shift facility, attract the range of needs demand to carry out strength grading, be divided into following Three Estate:

Core attracts zone: the demand intensity of attraction is very large, is that the main demand of facility attracts scope;

The general zone that attracts: the demand intensity of attraction is larger, is that the demand that facility is general attracts scope;

Edge attracts zone: the demand intensity of attraction is less, is that the demand at facility edge attracts scope.

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