CN103390904B - Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of regenerative resource to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method, comprise: direct economic benefit analysis, build the direct economic benefit analytical system kinetic model that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource, income that this model comprises renewable energy power generation amount, regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and regenerative resource are generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost; Assistant service cost analysis, assistant service refers to safe and stable operation in order to safeguard electric power system and ensures the necessary service of the quality of power supply, build the system dynamics model of assistant service cost analysis, this model comprises peak regulation cost, frequency modulation cost and spinning reserve cost; Environmental Effect Analysis, build regenerative resource to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the system dynamics model of Environmental Effect Analysis, this model utilizes system dynamics, analyze the model of relation between each key element of renewable energy power generation environmental benefit, this model mainly under the support of correlation technique and policy, the size of renewable energy power generation amount and the reduction of discharging benefit brought thus.

Description

Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of analytical method, especially a kind of regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method.

Background technology

At present, increasing regenerative resource is applied to existing electrical network in recent years, but often to distribute dispersion due to renewable power supply, much away from load center, electric power be sent out, just need to be accessed electrical network end, carry out long-distance sand transport.But electrical network end structure is weak, access difficulty is large, may be difficult to bear the fluctuation that the unsteadiness of some regenerative resource and randomness cause it; On the other hand, after regenerative resource access electrical network, also can have an impact to the power supply of electrical network and running, thus affect the economic benefit of power grid enterprises' operation.The structure, investment construction, operation of power networks etc. of large-scale development to network system of renewable energy power generation are proposed new requirement; the problem of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource not only brings very large pressure to power grid enterprises, has also become the bottleneck of restriction renewable energy power generation development.

Therefore, be necessary to study the regenerative resource comprehensive value of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and the impact on Electric Power Network Planning, investment enlarging and economy operation of power grid, the online price studying renewable energy power generation on this basis and the security mechanism of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, for power grid enterprises' decision-making provides reliable reference.For State Grid Corporation of China, it is realize the basic work that regenerative resource generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems in order that further investigation regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems to the economic impact of electrical network, being the important evidence instructing intelligent grid High Speed Construction, is that grid company is fulfiled social responsibility, built the important leverage of national energy security Strategic System.

The application's quasi-solution is following technical problem certainly

Regenerative resource is compared with traditional energy, and its obvious advantage existing, has again comparatively outstanding limitation.Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and can be had influence on the stable operation of electrical network, and regenerative resource skewness, generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and be faced with a lot of technical difficulty simultaneously.Along with renewable energy power generation technology constantly improve and renewable energy power generation station is large quantities of is connected to the grid continuously, its impact can not be underestimated, and optimize and improve the large theme that clean energy resource development quality becomes structure adjustment of power source.Specifically, the technical problem that the application's quasi-solution is determined mainly contains: (1) renewable energy power generation high expensive is that restriction new forms of energy develop topmost factor, and it is in particular in the construction that renewable energy technologies is equipped and operating cost aspect.Some new and old frictions have been there is in the layout of new forms of energy, the structural adjustment process of the new and old energy, as as new forms of energy, the new technology adopted requires applies auxiliary facility accordingly, and its cost before large-scale production is also higher, in the evolution of this supporting industry, how Scientific evaluation optimize regenerative resource cost benefit and become the large technical problem needing to solve; (2) along with renewable energy power generation technology constantly improve and renewable energy power generation station is large quantities of is connected to the grid continuously, its impact can not be underestimated.The interconnection technology problem of renewable energy power generation is the key issue of its large-scale development always, and particularly the frequent starting of distributed power generation can cause electrical network instantaneous load to increase, and Utilities Electric Co. needs to carry out track remodelling for this reason.And from power scheduling angle, power supply point is more many is more unfavorable for allotment.Such as, wind-powered electricity generation accesses electrical network on a large scale, not only can have influence on peak load regulation network, and the unsteadiness of wind power output can make operation fired power generating unit be forced to significantly participate in the work of system frequency modulation, and fired power generating unit governing speed is comparatively slow, be difficult to the significantly Rapid Variable Design adapting to wind-powered electricity generation completely.Along with the quick growth of wind-powered electricity generation, continuation increases by wind-powered electricity generation sudden change amplitude, can affect greatly frequency quality of power grid.In addition, the fluctuation of wind power output and unsteadiness also make the grid-connected spinning reserve demand needing to roll up system of large-scale wind power, do not consider sufficient spinning reserve capacity resource, the real-time electric power of serious threat electrical network balances and power network safety operation by wind-powered electricity generation in actual schedule is run.Therefore, how to estimate wind power grid to peak load regulation network, frequency modulation and spare capacity needs, and then electrical network makes appropriate arrangements, become the large technical problem needing to solve; (3) in today that environment comes into one's own day by day, thermal power generation is discharged a large amount of pollutants and is caused very serious harm to environment, in order to reduce pollutant emission, adopts generation of electricity by new energy technology to be the important channel reducing pollutant emission.Global climate change and infringement thereof are the synthesis result of long-term series of factors, and its qualitative assessment is very complicated, and there is very large uncertainty.The environmental benefit how Scientific evaluation regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems becomes the another technical problem needing to solve.

The comprehensive value that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems determines its competitiveness relative to conventional energy resource and development potentiality, analyze when the renewable resource energy generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and must consider its particularity, consider the intermittence that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and uncertain and local actual conditions, the direct economic benefit that system research and quantitative analysis (1) regenerative resource are generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems; (2) the assistant service cost that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource; (3) the regenerative resource environmental benefit of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.In the value that the analytical method built need be generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems in assessment regenerative resource, there is very strong adaptability and replicability.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is for overcoming above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, a kind of regenerative resource is provided to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method, the method can assess the value that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, for power grid enterprises' decision-making provides reliable reference, for intelligent grid High Speed Construction provides important evidence.

For achieving the above object, the present invention adopts following technical proposals:

A kind of regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method, comprising:

Direct economic benefit is analyzed, and the direct economic benefit that analysis regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems is exactly the cost benefit that analysis regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, and needs generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income and cost accounting of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems to regenerative resource; Build the direct economic benefit analytical system kinetic model that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource, income that this model comprises renewable energy power generation amount, regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and regenerative resource are generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost;

Assistant service cost analysis, assistant service refers to safe and stable operation in order to safeguard electric power system and ensures the necessary service of the quality of power supply, build the system dynamics model of assistant service cost analysis, this model comprises peak regulation cost, frequency modulation cost and spinning reserve cost;

Environmental Effect Analysis, build regenerative resource to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the system dynamics model of Environmental Effect Analysis, this model utilizes system dynamics, analyze the model of relation between each key element of renewable energy power generation environmental benefit, this model mainly under the support of correlation technique and policy, the size of renewable energy power generation amount and the reduction of discharging benefit brought thus.

Described renewable energy power generation amount is under the supporting function of correlation technique progress and government policy, the energy output that regenerative resource is total.

Described regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income, is under existing electricity price regulation, and regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the income that electricity power enterprise is obtained, numerically equal rate for incorporation into the power network and grid-connected after the product of average energy output.

Described regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost, is that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the cost brought to electricity power enterprise, mainly comprises construction cost, operating cost and management cost.

The system dynamics equation of the direct economic benefit analytical system kinetic model that described regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.

(1) state equation:

$Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-1)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

Q _renew(0)---the initial energy output of regenerative resource, kWh;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(2) rate equation:

$q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=\frac{\mathrm{TECH}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICY}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}{\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}---(2-2)$

*Q _renew(t-1)

In formula

TECH (t)---the technological progress factor;

TECHW (t)---technological progress weight;

POLICY (t)---the policy support factor;

POLICYW (t)---policy support weight;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(3) subsidiary equation:

E _gen(t)＝B _gen(t)-C _gen(t)（2-3）

B _gen(t)＝Q _gen(t)*p _gen(t)（2-4）

C _gen(t)＝C _oper(t)+C _mana(t)+C _cons(t)（2-5）

In formula

B _gen(t)---the grid-connected direct economic benefit of regenerative resource, unit;

B _gen(t)---income of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, unit;

Q _gent ()---generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost, unit;

Q _gen(t)---electricity volume, kWh;

P _gen(t)---rate for incorporation into the power network, unit/kWh;

C _oper(t)---regenerative resource operating cost, unit;

C _cons(t)---renewable energy source management cost, unit;

C _mana(t)---regenerative resource construction cost, unit;

Q _gen(t)=Q _renew(t)*(1-ζ)（2-6）

C _oper(t)=Q _renew(t)*c _oper(t)（2-7）

C _mana(t)=Q _renew(t)*c _mana(t)（2-8）

C _cons(t)=Θ _cons(t)*c _cons(t)（2-9）

In formula

ζ---station service power consumption rate;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

C _oper(t)---regenerative resource operating cost, unit;

C _mana(t)---regenerative resource construction cost, unit;

C _cons(t)---renewable energy source management cost, unit;

C _oper(t)---unit quantity of electricity operating cost, unit/kWh;

C _mana(t)---unit quantity of electricity management cost, unit/kWh;

C _cons(t)---unit capacity construction cost, unit/kVA;

Θ _cons(t)---installed capacity, kVA.

Described peak regulation cost participates in the active power balance after system grid connection, the cost that keeping system is stablized and caused, the income that its value is equivalent to normal power supplies participation degree of depth peak regulation and generates electricity less to maintain renewable energy power generation.

Described frequency modulation cost is that renewable energy power generation participates in system grid connection, the cost caused in order to keeping system frequency stabilization.

Described spinning reserve cost is the fluctuation in order to balance generated output of renewable energy source and unsteadiness, increases the cost that spinning reserve demand is brought

The system dynamics equation of the system dynamics model of described assistant service cost analysis is:

(1) state equation:

A. peak regulation cost

$C_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(0\right)+{\mathrm{\Ω}}_{\mathrm{peak}}*\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-10)$

In formula

C _peak(t)---adjust cutting edge of a knife or a sword cost, unit;

C _peak(0)---initial peak regulation cost, unit;

Ω _peak---unit peak regulation cost, unit/kWh;

Q _peak(t)---unit interval few electricity amount;

B. frequency modulation cost

$C_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-11)$

In formula

C _freq(t)---frequency modulation cost, unit;

C _freq(0)---initial frequency modulation cost, unit;

Q _freq(t)---unit interval frequency modulation cost;

C. spinning reserve cost

$C_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-12)$

In formula

C _revo(t)---spinning reserve cost, unit;

C _revo(0)---initial spinning reserve cost, unit;

Q _revo(t)---unit interval stand-by cost;

(2) rate equation:

q _peak(t)=α*Θ _con(t)-P _real(t)（2-13）

q _freq(t)=η*Ω _freq（2-14）

q _revo(t)=Ω _revo*Θ _res(t)（2-15）

In formula

Q _peak(t)---unit interval few electricity amount;

α---basic peak regulation coefficient;

Θ _con(t)---conventional rack capacity;

P _realt ()---conventional rack is actual exerts oneself;

Q _freq(t)---unit interval frequency modulation cost;

η---unit interval fluctuating power;

Ω _freq---unit frequency modulation cost;

Q _revo(t)---unit interval stand-by cost;

Ω _revo---unit reserve capacity cost;

Θ _res(t)---reserve capacity summation;

(3) subsidiary equation:

C _auxi(t)=C _revo(t)+C _freq(t)+C _peak(t)（2-16）

P _real(t)=P _pre(0)+0.03*C _auxi(t)（2-17）

η=μ*P _total（2-18）

C _auxi(t)---supplementary costs, unit;

C _peak(t)---peak regulation cost, unit;

C _freq(t)---frequency modulation cost, unit;

C _revo(t)---spinning reserve cost, unit;

P _realt ()---conventional rack is actual exerts oneself;

P _pre(0)---predict fiducial value of exerting oneself;

η---unit interval fluctuating power;

μ---power fluctuation coefficient;

P _total---system total load.

The reduction of discharging benefit of described atmosphere pollution is the increase due to renewable energy power generation amount, reduces or alternative thermal power output, reduces the use to coal resources, thus the low-carbon (LC) realizing power industry generating end is produced.

The generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems system dynamics equation of system dynamics model of Environmental Effect Analysis of described regenerative resource is:

(1) state equation:

$Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-1)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

Q _renew(0)---the initial energy output of regenerative resource, kWh;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(2) rate equation:

$q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=\frac{\mathrm{TECH}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICY}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}{\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}---(2-2)$

*Q _renew(t-1)

In formula

TECH (t)---the technological progress factor;

TECHW (t)---technological progress weight;

POLICY (t)---the policy support factor;

POLICYW (t)---policy support weight;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(3) subsidiary equation:

${B_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2\left(t\right)={N_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2\left(t\right)*{b_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2---(2-22)$

${B_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2\left(t\right)={N_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2\left(t\right)*{b_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2---(2-23)$

${B_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x\left(t\right)={N_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x\left(t\right)*{b_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x---(2-24)$

$B_{\mathrm{env}}\left(t\right)={B_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2\left(t\right)+{B_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2\left(t\right)+{B_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x\left(t\right)---(2-25)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xunit discharge, kg/kWh;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xcER, kg;

---show CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xunit reduce discharging be worth, unit/kg;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xreduction of discharging benefit, unit;

B _env(t)---represent and reduce discharging benefit total amount, unit.

By the present invention, following beneficial effect can be produced: adopt system dynamics, build the evaluation method of the grid-connected benefit of regenerative resource and cost, consider the intermittence of regenerative resource, uncertainty, there is universality; The policy support factor simultaneously, the technological progress factor all adjust flexibly according to local actual conditions, ensure that adaptability and the replicability of this analysis evaluation method; Ensure the grid-connected returns of investment of regenerative resource and on-road efficiency measuring and calculating accuracy rate >90%.This analysis method is based on System Dynamics Theory, to regenerative resource and the most remarkable and measurable economic benefit off the net carry out studying and calculate, and direct economic benefit, assistant service cost and environmental benefit that regenerative resource of analyzing and researching is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, and build its system dynamics model, assess with this value that regenerative resource generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.Namely by the present invention, can: the comprehensive value that (1) Scientific evaluation regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems; (2) for user control cost, increasing the benefit provides reference frame, for user brings good economic benefit; (3) for power grid enterprises' decision-making provides reliable reference; (4) for intelligent grid High Speed Construction provides foundation.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the grid-connected direct economic benefit system flow of regenerative resource;

Fig. 2 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration cost of electricity-generating;

Fig. 3 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration generating income;

Fig. 4 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration generating direct economic benefit;

Fig. 5 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration generating direct economic benefit;

Fig. 6 is the grid-connected assistant service COST system flow graph of wind-powered electricity generation (solar power generation);

Fig. 7 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration power generation peak adjusting cost;

Fig. 8 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration generating frequency modulation cost;

Fig. 9 is the changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration generation rotary stand-by cost;

Figure 10 is the assistant service cost changing trend diagram of day part wind-electricity integration generating;

The environmental benefit system flow that Figure 11 regenerative resource is grid-connected;

Figure 12 is the CO of day part wind-electricity integration generating ₂cER, SO ₂cER and NOx reduce discharging spirogram;

Figure 13 (a) is the CO of day part wind-electricity integration generating ₂reduce discharging benefit figure;

Figure 13 (b) is the SO of day part wind-electricity integration generating ₂reduce discharging benefit figure;

Figure 13 (c) is that the NOx of day part wind-electricity integration generating reduces discharging benefit figure.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is further described.

Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems analytical method, comprising: regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems direct economic benefit analytical method, and regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems assistant service Cost Analysis Method, and regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems Environmental Effect Analysis method.

Particular content is as follows:

1. the direct economic benefit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource

1.1 direct economic benefit analyses

The main energy power generation type of China comprises coal fired power generation, water power, wind-powered electricity generation, nuclear power, straw power generation and natural gas power (fuel gas generation) six kinds.Wherein, regenerative resource operating cost is almost nil, and regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and had significant economic benefit.On the one hand, large-scale developing and utilizing of regenerative resource can delay or reduce thermoelectricity installed capacity investment; On the other hand, intelligent grid correlation technique can improve time of utilization of installed capacity, and then reduces thermal power output.Based on this, under the background greatly developing clean regenerative resource, quickening regenerative resource large-scale grid connection, the direct economic benefit that research regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems has important theory and realistic meaning.

Wind energy is a kind of renewable, clean new forms of energy, current wind power generation possess skills relative maturity, advantage of lower cost, can the feature such as large-scale development.In the last few years, Global Wind Power Industry development was very fast, installs the generating of large-scale wind electricity set grid-connection, become the principal mode that world's wind energy development utilizes in wind energy turbine set.Wind energy, in industrial processes, inevitably consumes the various forms of energy.The energy ezpenditure corresponding to raw material that each parts of such as motor need in process of production, transportation energy consumption etc.But wind energy turbine set is once build up and come into operation, and its equipment cost and production cost can reclaim fast within short-term, and year rate of return on investment very high.The fund cost of wind energy turbine set, namely the construction cost of wind energy turbine set not only comprises the cost of wind turbine generator.NWCC(NationalWindCoordinatingCommittee) point out ⁱ, the construction cost of wind energy turbine set comprises: the evaluation and analysis of wind-resources; Project examination, investigation and financing; The construction of relief road; The capital construction of wind energy conversion system, transformer and transformer substation construction; The transport of wind energy conversion system and pylon and installation; The installation of anemobiagraph, wind vane; Wind energy conversion system is to transformer, transformer to the electric power facility construction of transformer station; Operation maintenance; Wind energy turbine set central monitoring system is built; Energy data measures the operation monitoring of backup and wind energy conversion system, and data store; Machine debugging; Transfer owner or operator to.Wherein, above-mentioned multinomial cost can be included in the construction cost of wind energy turbine set unit capacity, can be obtained the construction cost of wind energy turbine set by the installed capacity of wind-powered electricity generation and the construction cost of unit capacity.

In microeconomics, economic benefit refers to the occupation of capital, comparing between cost payout with useful production results ⁱⁱ.It can thus be appreciated that economic benefit is mainly reflected in the production capacity utilizing enterprise, shorten the production cycle, reduce production cost, realize balanced production.Based on this, report that the direct economic benefit that regenerative resource generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems is defined as regenerative resource and generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the difference of income and the cost that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, therefore, the direct economic benefit that raising regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems can generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems to take in by increase regenerative resource and generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems into original realization with reduction regenerative resource.Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and is mainly comprised wind power generation, solar power generation, hydroelectric power generation, wastes-to-power generation and biomass power generation etc.Because wind power generation is that in renewable energy power generation technology, cost reduces one of the fastest generation technology, simultaneously based on the availability of data, report will for wind-powered electricity generation, set up system dynamics model based on above-mentioned analysis, system research and quantitative analysis are carried out to the direct economic benefit that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.

1.2 model description

To be generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems from above-mentioned regenerative resource the definition of direct economic benefit, analyzing the direct economic benefit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource is exactly analyze the cost benefit that regenerative resource generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, and needs to calculate generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income and the cost that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource.The system dynamics model that this section will be generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems based on above-mentioned analysis structure regenerative resource, this model mainly comprises three parts: one is renewable energy power generation amount; Two is that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income; Three is that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost.

Renewable energy power generation amount, main research under the supporting function of correlation technique progress and government policy, the energy output that regenerative resource is total;

Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income, mainly studies under existing electricity price regulation, and regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the income that electricity power enterprise is obtained, numerically equal rate for incorporation into the power network and grid-connected after the product of average energy output;

Regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost, and main research regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the cost brought to electricity power enterprise, main

Comprise construction cost, operating cost and management cost.

Specifically as shown in Figure 1:

For the ease of understanding, elaboration is made, in Table 1-1 to the implication of Correlative Influence Factors in Fig. 1:

The Correlative Influence Factors of table 1-1 wind-electricity integration direct economic benefit and implication thereof

On the basis that specify that each influencing factor implication and effect, provide regenerative resource and to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the system dynamics equation of direct economic benefit.

(1) state equation:

$Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-1)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

Q _renew(0)---the initial energy output of regenerative resource, kWh;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/.

(2) rate equation: $q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=\frac{\mathrm{TECH}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICY}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}{\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}---(2-2)$

*Q _renew(t-1)

In formula

TECH (t)---the technological progress factor;

TECHW (t)---technological progress weight;

POLICY (t)---the policy support factor;

POLICYW (t)---policy support weight.

(3) subsidiary equation:

E _gen(t)＝B _gen(t)-C _gen(t)（2-3）

B _gen(t)＝Q _gen(t)*p _gen(t)（2-4）

C _gen(t)＝C _oper(t)+C _mana(t)+C _cons(t)（2-5）

In formula

B _gen(t)---the grid-connected direct economic benefit of regenerative resource, unit;

B _gen(t)---income of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, unit;

Q _gent ()---generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost, unit;

Q _gen(t)---electricity volume, kWh;

P _gen(t)---rate for incorporation into the power network, unit/kWh;

C _oper(t)---regenerative resource operating cost, unit;

C _cons(t)---renewable energy source management cost, unit;

C _mana(t)---regenerative resource construction cost, unit.

Q _gen(t)=Q _renew(t)*(1-ζ)（2-6）

C _oper(t)=Q _renew(t)*c _oper(t)（2-7）

C _mana(t)=Q _renew(t)*c _mana(t)（2-8）

C _cons(t)=Θ _cons(t)*c _cons(t)（2-9）

In formula

ζ---station service power consumption rate;

C _oper(t)---unit quantity of electricity operating cost, unit/kWh;

C _mana(t)---unit quantity of electricity management cost, unit/kWh;

C _cons(t)---unit capacity construction cost, unit/kVA;

Θ _cons(t)---installed capacity, kVA.

1.3 sample calculation analysis

This model is for wind-powered electricity generation, consider the factors such as Shandong provincial power network 2011 yearly peak load, wind power output characteristic and power supply architecture, continuous analog runs 2011-2020 10 year, and the time interval is 1 year, the direct economic benefit that measuring and calculating regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.

In addition, the basic assumption of this model is:

(1) set its spinning reserve as 5% of peak load, the electricity average price of reserve capacity is 290 yuan/MWh;

(2) the conventional energy resource power plant flue gas average discharge replaced by wind-powered electricity generation is 0.95kg/kWh, and the charges for disposing pollutants of every kilogram of waste gas are 0.05 yuan.

By inputting the direct economic benefit situation of change of following parameter value simulation wind-electricity integration generating.The setting of design parameter value is as shown in table 2-2.Wherein, the numerical value of traditional installed capacity and system total load takes from Shandong Province's electric power statistical yearbook in 2011; Technological progress, policy support and corresponding weight thereof are by model specification, and model hypothesis technological progress is table function; Rate for incorporation into the power network and station service power consumption rate are the numerical value obtained by reality investigation; Unit capacity construction cost is the data that model calculates, according to Committee of Development and Reform's file regulation ⁱⁱⁱ, the unit capacity construction cost that model calculates Shandong Province's wind-electricity integration generating is 0.5 yuan/kWh, and being less than stake electrovalence, is reasonable economically.

The parameter value of table 2-2 wind-electricity integration generating direct economic benefit measuring and calculating SD model

By Vensim software, this model is simulated, the income of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of wind-electricity integration generating, the situation of change of generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost and the direct economic benefit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems can be obtained, respectively as shown in Fig. 2, Fig. 3 and Fig. 4.

Can find out from Fig. 2, Fig. 3 and Fig. 4, along with the increase of installed capacity of wind-driven power, wind-electricity integration cost of electricity-generating and income of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems all constantly increase.But because wind-electricity integration cost of electricity-generating is higher than wind-electricity integration generating income, therefore, the direct economic benefit of wind-electricity integration generating is lower, is even negative value in some time, and that is Shandong Province's wind-electricity integration generating is at present in the state of loss.

Above-mentioned phenomenon is mainly caused by two reasons: on the one hand, because the construction cost of wind energy turbine set, operating cost and management cost are higher, makes wind-electricity integration cost of electricity-generating higher; On the other hand, the computing formula of the income that generated electricity from wind-electricity integration, the main impact by the average energy output after rate for incorporation into the power network and wind-electricity integration of generating income.Although Shandong Province's installed capacity of wind-driven power is larger at present, but because wind-powered electricity generation is abandoned, serious, the grid-connected ratio of wind phenomenon is lower (to be found by reality investigation, to add up installed capacity growth rate faster in Shandong Province in recent years, the grid-connected ratio of Wind turbines is on the contrary in downward trend), in addition wind-powered electricity generation rate for incorporation into the power network is lower, make wind-electricity integration generate electricity income lower than wind-electricity integration generating income, the direct economic benefit causing wind-electricity integration to generate electricity is negative value.Therefore, Shandong Province, while extensive development wind-powered electricity generation, needs to consider its direct economic benefit, takes into account dissolving and grid-connected problem of wind-powered electricity generation, optimizes allocation of resources, improve the economic benefit of wind-electricity integration generating.

2. the assistant service cost that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource

2.1 assistant service cost analyses

Assistant service refers to safe and stable operation in order to safeguard electric power system and ensures the necessary service of the quality of power supply.Its main contents comprise the services such as FREQUENCY CONTROL, reserve capacity, Steam Generator in Load Follow, Reactive-power control, black starting-up.Electric power system utilizes assistant service can complete following task:

(1) guarantee that system frequency is within certain scope.

(2) the voltage configuration of control system.

(3) stability of system is ensured.

(4) delivery of electrical energy in system is avoided to block.

In the intelligent grid of novel integration regenerative resource, renewable energy power generation also will join as electrical network provides the ranks of assistant service.The infringement that the start and stop of renewable energy power generation cause rapidly and to generating equipment is very little, thus significantly reduces the cost of assistant service.But, in view of the feature of renewable energy power generation poor stability, still need the cooperation of conventional electric power generation when implementing assistant service, to guarantee the stability of operation of power networks.

Renewable energy power generation also differs from one another according to the effect played in the electrical network that do not coexist of its type, the renewable energy power generation such as wind power generation and solar power generation has certain intermittence and uncertainty, can not use as system reserve capacity, therefore in order to maximally utilise wind energy and solar power generation and maintain the safe and reliable operation of electric power system, it is for subsequent use that electric power system needs to increase load, this adds increased certain assistant service cost.For wind-powered electricity generation, wind power output has randomness and fluctuation.For maintaining Electric Power Real-time Balancing, guaranteeing power network safety operation, need for wind power integration provides a large amount of peak regulation, frequency modulation, pressure regulation and the assistant service such as subsequent use, so just, define the supplementary costs cost of serving of wind power integration, too increase the operating cost of electric power system.

The extensive access of wind-powered electricity generation is embodied in the impact of wind power output on system loading peak-valley difference to the impact that peak load regulation network brings.The change of peak-valley difference depends on that wind-powered electricity generation is in a few days exerted oneself the relation in amplitude of variation and direction and load variations amplitude and direction.If wind power output is equivalent to load, itself and original loads are superimposed and can form equivalent load curve.If load variations trend is consistent with wind power output variation tendency, then equivalent load curve becomes level and smooth, and wind-powered electricity generation just has positive Peak Load Adjustment, favourable to power system operation; Otherwise load variations trend is contrary with wind power variation tendency, and after wind power integration, system equivalent load curve peak-valley difference strengthens, and wind-powered electricity generation presents anti-peak-shaving capability, makes peak load regulation network problem more outstanding, is unfavorable for that power system safety and stability runs.

On the one hand, due to the continuous change of nature wind speed, exerting oneself of Wind turbines also changes at any time.The fluctuation of a large amount of wind power adds the difficulty of system frequency modulation, and the change of system frequency can affect the running status of Wind turbines.The unsteadiness of wind power output, makes to run fired power generating unit and be forced to significantly participate in the work of system frequency modulation, and fired power generating unit governing speed is comparatively slow, is difficult to the significantly Rapid Variable Design adapting to wind-powered electricity generation completely.Along with the quick growth of wind-powered electricity generation, continuation increases by wind-powered electricity generation sudden change amplitude, can affect greatly frequency quality of power grid.

On the other hand, the fluctuation of wind power output and unsteadiness make that large-scale wind power is grid-connected will roll up the spinning reserve demand of system.Do not consider sufficient spinning reserve capacity resource, the real-time electric power of serious threat electrical network balances and power network safety operation by wind-powered electricity generation in actual schedule is run.Therefore, need fully to expect wind-powered electricity generation to fluctuate the system reserve capacity demand that may cause, need to make overall planning the power supply (such as combustion engine, hydroelectric station that adjusting function is high) of certain proportion quick adjustment, meets system level second, minute level, hour demand such as level and emergency duty.

External wind-electricity integration result of study shows ^ivwhen wind-powered electricity generation ratio is below 20%, the balance cost that wind-powered electricity generation causes is 1.0-3.5 Euro/(MWh); When wind-powered electricity generation ratio reaches 20%, cost is 2.0-4.5 Euro/(MWh), amount to RMB 20-45 unit/(MWh).The system supplymentary cost of serving that large-scale wind power causes accounts for certain proportion, have impact on the economical of wind-electricity integration to a great extent.

2.2 model description

1, the peak regulation demand analysis of wind-electricity integration generating

The extensive access of wind-powered electricity generation will bring considerable influence to peak load regulation network, be embodied in the impact of wind power output on system loading peak-valley difference.The change of peak-valley difference depends on that wind-powered electricity generation is in a few days exerted oneself the relation in amplitude of variation and direction and load variations amplitude and direction.If wind power output is equivalent to load, itself and original loads are superimposed and can form equivalent load curve.If load variations trend is consistent with wind power output variation tendency, then equivalent load curve becomes level and smooth, and wind-powered electricity generation just has positive Peak Load Adjustment, favourable to power system operation; Otherwise load variations trend is contrary with wind power variation tendency, and after wind power integration, system equivalent load curve peak-valley difference strengthens.The peak regulation cost that wind-powered electricity generation causes should be the income that normal power supplies participates in degree of depth peak regulation and few energy output.

2, the frequency modulation demand analysis of wind-electricity integration generating

Due to the continuous change of nature wind speed, exerting oneself of wind-driven generator also changes at any time.The fluctuation of a large amount of wind power adds the difficulty of system frequency modulation, and the change of system frequency can affect the running status of Wind turbines.The unsteadiness of wind power output, makes to run fired power generating unit and be forced to significantly participate in the work of system frequency modulation, and fired power generating unit governing speed is comparatively slow, is difficult to the significantly Rapid Variable Design adapting to wind-powered electricity generation completely.Along with the quick growth of wind-powered electricity generation, continuation increases by wind-powered electricity generation sudden change amplitude, can affect greatly frequency quality of power grid.

The fluctuate frequency modulation cost that causes of wind power output should be actual AGC unit and participates in system frequency up-down adjustment and the cost that occurs.Frequency modulation cost calculation is comparatively complicated, and the frequency regulation capacity occurred with reality, frequency modulation number of times and time etc. are closely related.

3, the spinning reserve demand analysis of wind-electricity integration generating

The fluctuation of wind power output and unsteadiness, such that large-scale wind power is grid-connected will roll up the spinning reserve demand of system.Do not consider sufficient spinning reserve capacity resource, the real-time electric power of serious threat electrical network balances and power network safety operation by wind-powered electricity generation in actual schedule is run.Therefore, need fully to expect wind-powered electricity generation to fluctuate the system reserve capacity demand that may cause, need to make overall planning the power supply (such as combustion engine, hydroelectric station that adjusting function is high) of certain proportion quick adjustment, meets system level second, minute level, hour demand such as level and emergency duty.The spinning reserve cost that wind-powered electricity generation causes should be the income that other units provide spinning reserve capacity and few energy output.

Based on above-mentioned analysis, the assistant service COST system kinetic model of wind-powered electricity generation and solar power generation mainly comprises peak regulation cost, frequency modulation cost and spinning reserve cost three parts.

Peak regulation cost, mainly studies to maintain the active power balance after wind-powered electricity generation and solar power generation participation system, the cost that keeping system is stablized and caused, the income that its value is equivalent to normal power supplies participation degree of depth peak regulation and generates electricity less.

Frequency modulation cost, main research wind-powered electricity generation and solar power generation participate in system, the cost caused in order to keeping system frequency stabilization

Spinning reserve cost, main research, in order to the fluctuation that balances wind-powered electricity generation and solar power generation and exert oneself and unsteadiness, increases the cost that spinning reserve demand is brought

Specifically as shown in Figure 6, for the ease of understanding, this section has made elaboration, in Table 2-3 to the implication of Correlative Influence Factors in Fig. 6:

The Correlative Influence Factors of table 2-3 wind-powered electricity generation (solar power generation) grid-connected assistant service cost and implication thereof

Based on above-mentioned analysis, provide following system dynamics equation.

(1) state equation:

A. peak regulation cost

$C_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(0\right)+{\mathrm{\Ω}}_{\mathrm{peak}}*\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-10)$

In formula

C _peak(t)---adjust cutting edge of a knife or a sword cost, unit;

C _peak(0)---initial peak regulation cost, unit;

Ω _peak---unit peak regulation cost, unit/kWh;

Q _peak(t)---unit interval few electricity amount;

B. frequency modulation cost

$C_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-11)$

In formula

C _freq(t)---frequency modulation cost, unit;

C _freq(0)---initial frequency modulation cost, unit;

Q _freq(t)---unit interval frequency modulation cost;

C. spinning reserve cost

$C_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-12)$

In formula

C _revo(t)---spinning reserve cost, unit;

C _revo(0)---initial spinning reserve cost, unit;

Q _revo(t)---unit interval stand-by cost;

(2) rate equation:

q _peak(t)=α*Θ _con(t)-P _real(t)（2-13）

q _freq(t)=η*Ω _freq（2-14）

q _revo(t)=Ω _revo*Θ _res(t)（2-15）

In formula

α---basic peak regulation coefficient;

Θ _con(t)---conventional rack capacity;

P _realt ()---conventional rack is actual exerts oneself;

η---unit interval fluctuating power;

Ω _freq---unit frequency modulation cost;

Ω _revo---unit reserve capacity cost;

Θ _res(t)---reserve capacity summation.

(3) subsidiary equation:

C _auxi(t)=C _revo(t)+C _freq(t)+C _peak(t)（2-16）

P _real(t)=P _pre(0)+0.03*C _auxi(t)（2-17）

η=μ*P _total（2-18）

In formula

C _auxi(t)---supplementary costs, unit;

P _pre(0)---predict fiducial value of exerting oneself;

μ---power fluctuation coefficient;

P _total---system total load.

In addition, biomass power generation and wastes-to-power generation can be used as peak-frequency regulation capacity, play the effect of stable electrical network operation, can reduce assistant service cost to a certain extent.If but biomass power generation is not as peak-frequency regulation power supply, then electrical network assistant service cost can not be reduced.

2.3 sample calculation analysis

This model is for wind-powered electricity generation, consider the factors such as Shandong provincial power network 2011 yearly peak load, wind power output characteristic and power supply architecture, continuous analog runs 2011-2020 10 year, and the time interval is 1 year, the assistant service cost that measuring and calculating regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.

In addition, the basic assumption of this model is:

(1) measuring and calculating of wind-electricity integration generating assistant service cost comprises peak regulation cost, frequency modulation cost and spinning reserve cost, does not consider the cost that other assistant services such as black starting-up, Reactive-power control produce;

(2) suppose that wind-powered electricity generation participates in systematic electricity balance by 10% guaranteed capacity, percentage reserve calculates by 20%, and electric power surplus reaches 20%, and this electric power saving Supply and demand trend shows as and supplies much larger than asking.

The impact that this section is changed system supplymentary cost of serving by the generating of input following parameter value simulation wind-electricity integration.The setting of design parameter value as shown in Table 2-4.Wherein, the data of traditional installed capacity and system total load take from Shandong Province's electric power statistical yearbook in 2011.According to surveying wind data for many years, the fluctuation of this province wind-powered electricity generation 5min level average output account for wind-powered electricity generation total installation of generating capacity 4.5%, the fluctuation of hour level average output accounts for 11.4%.According to the assistant service management method v that this province region electrical network is promulgated, determine peak regulation, frequency modulation and unit cost for subsequent use, be respectively 0.50 yuan/(kWh), 0.12 yuan/(kWh) and 0.02 yuan/(kWh).

The parameter value of table 2-4 wind-electricity integration generating assistant service cost accounting SD model

By Vensim software, this model is simulated, the situation of change of the peak regulation cost of wind-electricity integration generating, frequency modulation cost and reserve capacity cost can be obtained, as Fig. 6, shown in Fig. 7 and Fig. 8, the assistant service cost of wind-electricity integration generating can be calculated, as shown in Figure 9 by wind-electricity integration power generation peak adjusting cost, frequency modulation cost and reserve capacity cost.

Known from Fig. 7, Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, along with the increase of wind-electricity integration installed capacity, the various assistant service cost of day part all presents growth trend in various degree.Wherein, frequency modulation cost increases relative very fast with peak regulation cost, account for the overwhelming majority of assistant service cost, the anti-peak-shaving capability that this and Shandong Province's wind-powered electricity generation present is closely related, also reflects that Shandong provincial power network faces larger peak regulation, frequency modulation pressure objectively simultaneously.The spinning reserve demand caused due to wind-powered electricity generation is mainly reflected in the period of peak load balance, the time of improving spinning reserve only adds up peak period, and because spinning reserve capacity is mainly used in preventing load prediction deviation from causing supply falls short of demand situation, in addition the modeling time is relatively short, and spinning reserve cost increases relatively slow.In a word, as can be seen from above-mentioned analog result, wind-electricity integration generates electricity and brings larger peak regulation and frequency modulation pressure to Shandong provincial power network, therefore, Shandong Province needs to need for wind power integration provides a large amount of peak regulation, frequency modulation and spinning reserve capacities while large-scale wind power is grid-connected, optimize generation schedule and power system operating mode, reduce the operating cost of system as much as possible.

The environmental benefit that 3 regenerative resources are generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems

3.1 Environmental Effect Analysis

Greenhouse gas are typical global public products, control it and discharge the Cooperation And Coordination needed in whole world aspect.The energy resources structure of " rich coal, oil-poor, weak breath ", the economic scale increased year by year and traditional highly energy-consuming consumption pattern make China become one of maximum country of Global Carbon total emission volumn gradually.Estimate according to International Energy Agency (InternationalEnergyAgency, IEA), the proportion shared in Global Carbon discharge capacity of the China being in energy demand Fast growth phase increases to 27% of the year two thousand thirty by from 19% in 2005.From China CO ₂discharge structure on analyze, current C O ₂discharge mainly come from energy sector, especially power industry occupies discharge main body.Its main cause is, in China's electrification structure, thermoelectricity accounting is up to more than 77%, and presents CO ₂the trend that discharge capacity proportion rises year by year.International research projects ExternE has analysed in depth the various fuel of power department and the externality of technology ^vi, result of study shows, climate change and air pollution are most important Environmental costs, and these impacts mainly result from the production of energy stage.Regenerative resource can reduce all important external environment impact that fossil energy consumption produces, and comprises climate change problem, air pollution, contingency, ecosystem destruction, Architectural Corrosion, noise and visual impact etc.Wherein, reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emission is that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the important embodiment of environmental benefit.

1, air pollution is reduced

Compared with fossil energy, the pollution of regenerative resource to environment is much smaller.Water power, wind-powered electricity generation, solar energy etc. almost do not have the discharge of pollutant; Biomass utilization can not increase the carbon emission amount in air; Dust, SO ₂, the discharge that is local and Regional Atmospheric Pollution thing such as NOx is also little.Therefore, greatly develop regenerative resource, can reduce the pollution of environment in a large number or pollution is not produced to environment, there is very significant environmental benefit.After considering Environmental costs, thermal power generation is required to be its pollutant effulent and pays a large amount of expenses, comprises environmental value and the blowdown fine of pollutant, thus the cost of electricity-generating of traditional thermal power generation is improved; And renewable energy power generation is due to its superior feature of environmental protection, also environmental benefit can be fully demonstrated.

2, greenhouse gas emission is reduced

Global climate change and infringement thereof are the synthesis result of long-term series of factors, and its qualitative assessment is very complicated, and there is very large uncertainty.We adopt the infringement avoiding cost method analysis to be caused by greenhouse gas, namely with the cost estimation reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as the external benefit value of renewable energy power generation reduction of greenhouse gas discharge.The main greenhouse gas of discharging in generation technology is CO ₂, other greenhouse gas can be converted into CO2 equivalent.

According to IPCC assessment report, estimate CO in 2005 ₂social cost mean value is 12 $/t ₂.CO ₂price depends on series of factors, comprises the development of new technology, the development trend of world economic growth and fuel price.With 600MW thermal power generation for basis of reference, compare the environmental benefit that each renewable energy power generation project reduces discharging under equal capacity of installed generator, result of calculation is in Table 2-5.

The CO of table 2-5 renewable energy power generation project ₂reduce discharging benefit

Because wind energy is a kind of regenerative resource not consuming fossil fuel.The use of wind-powered electricity generation, is equivalent to save the fossil fuel needed for equal number electric energy, has larger low-carbon (LC) benefit.Analyze from Wind Power In China momentum of development, the coming years, Wind Power In China installed capacity will grow continuously and fast, but growth rate should slow down to some extent.What develop Chinese feature Denso machine in conjunction with China Association of Resources Comprehensive Utilization predicts the outcome, and to 2015, Wind Power In China installed capacity will reach 110GW-130GW, and average growth rate per annum is 21%-25%.Wind-electricity integration ratio will rise to 80%-90% gradually along with the maturation of interconnection technology, close to the level of American-European traditional wind-powered electricity generation power.Equivalence annual utilization hours is mainly by the impact of the wind energy turbine set amount of the wind comes from, if newly-built Wind Power Project, in Area distribution ratio, too many change does not occur, basic and current level maintains an equal level by the average equivalent annual utilization hours of so national wind energy turbine set.Equally, station service power consumption rate, as the basic index maintaining wind energy turbine set normal operation, can be considered stable parameter.Mainly be associated with the supply standard coal consumption of thermoelectricity and environment-protective process as toxic emission rate.

Wind power generation, as a kind of energy technology of high level of cleanliness, produces pollutant hardly, has higher environmental value than thermal power generation.In order to study the environmental benefit that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, the environmental benefit that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems is defined as follows.So-called " environmental benefit " refer to the pollutant of emission reduction units amount avoid the magnitude of value of " pollution economic loss ".Extensively adopt Environmental costs to quantize environmental value in the world, the main method of Evaluation Environment cost has 3 kinds in the world at present: 1. using the hurtful value of pollutant as measurement basis; 2. cost is remedied as measurement basis using the removing of pollution effect and indemnity for damage; 3. using the cost of Pollution protection generation as measurement basis.

Conventional energy resource gives off various pollutant when generating electricity, and comprises carbon dioxide, nitride, sulfide etc.Regenerative resource is as clean, green energy resource, renewable energy power generation is cleaner production, not only can replace part thermoelectricity, nuclear power, and for thermal power generation, can also Air Pollutant Emission be reduced, namely while identical electric energy is provided, reduce environmental pollution.For wind-powered electricity generation, the development of wind-powered electricity generation then can evade these pollution costs, and the embodiment of this part " pollution economic loss " namely wind-powered electricity generation environmental benefit.Based on above-mentioned analysis, this section carries out system research and quantitative analysis by by setting up system dynamics model and being aided with the environmental benefit (reduction of discharging benefit) that sample calculation analysis generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems to regenerative resource.

3.2 model description

The generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems system dynamics model of environmental benefit of regenerative resource utilizes system dynamics, analyzes the model of relation between each key element of renewable energy power generation environmental benefit.This model is mainly discussed under the support of correlation technique and policy, the size of renewable energy power generation amount and the reduction of discharging benefit brought thus.

The energy output of regenerative resource is under the supporting function of correlation technique progress and government policy, the energy output that regenerative resource is total.

The reduction of discharging benefit of atmosphere pollution, main research, due to the increase of renewable energy power generation amount, reduces to a certain extent or alternative thermal power output, reduces the use to coal resources, thus the low-carbon (LC) realizing power industry generating end is produced

The grid-connected environmental benefit system flow of regenerative resource is as shown in figure 11:

For the ease of understanding, elaboration is made, in Table 2-6 to the implication of Correlative Influence Factors in Figure 11:

The Correlative Influence Factors of the grid-connected environmental benefit of table 2-6 regenerative resource and implication thereof

Based on above-mentioned analysis, provide following system dynamics equation.

(1) state equation:

$Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-1)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

Q _renew(0)---the initial energy output of regenerative resource, kWh;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/.

(2) rate equation:

$q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=\frac{\mathrm{TECH}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICY}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}{\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}---(2-2)$

*Q _renew(t-1)

In formula

TECH (t)---the technological progress factor;

TECHW (t)---technological progress weight;

POLICY (t)---the policy support factor;

POLICYW (t)---policy support weight.

(3) subsidiary equation:

${B_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2\left(t\right)={N_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2\left(t\right)*{b_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2---(2-22)$

${B_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2\left(t\right)={N_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2\left(t\right)*{b_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2---(2-23)$

${B_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x\left(t\right)={N_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x\left(t\right)*{b_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x---(2-24)$

$B_{\mathrm{env}}\left(t\right)={B_{\mathrm{CO}}}_2\left(t\right)+{B_{\mathrm{SO}}}_2\left(t\right)+{B_{\mathrm{NO}}}_x\left(t\right)---(2-25)$

In formula

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xunit discharge, kg/kWh;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xcER, kg;

---show CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xunit reduce discharging be worth, unit/kg;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xreduction of discharging benefit, unit;

B _env(t)---represent and reduce discharging benefit total amount, unit.

3.3 sample calculation analysis

This model, for wind-powered electricity generation, considers the factors such as Shandong provincial power network 2011 yearly peak load, wind power output characteristic and power supply architecture, and continuous analog runs 2011-2020 10 year, and the time interval is 1 year, the environmental benefit of measuring and calculating wind-electricity integration generating.

In addition, the basic assumption of this model is:

(1) due to CO ₂, SO ₂and NOx is main atmosphere pollution, model is by pulverized coal ash, slag and TSP(suspended particulate substance) etc. the discharge of pollutant ignore;

(2) current, thermal power generation accounts for the leading of Shandong Province's energy output, and therefore, in model, the environmental benefit of wind-powered electricity generation mainly refers to the environmental benefit that wind-powered electricity generation displacement thermoelectricity brings;

(3) environmental benefit that wind-electricity integration generates electricity is converted into monetary value by model.

This section is by the situation of the change of input following parameter value simulation wind-electricity integration generating assistant service cost.The setting of design parameter value is as shown in table 2-7.Wherein, the auxiliary variables such as policy support, technological progress, other factors and corresponding weight thereof are by model specification, and model hypothesis technological progress is varying function (constantly changing in time).Based on data availability, CO ₂unit discharge, NOx unit discharge, SO ₂the parameter values such as unit discharge and corresponding specific emissions value thereof are see document ^vii.

The parameter value of table 2-7 wind-electricity integration power generation settings benefit measuring and calculating SD model

By Vensim software, this model is simulated, the CO of Shandong Province's wind-electricity integration generating can be obtained ₂cER, SO ₂cER, NOx CER and corresponding reduction of discharging benefit change situation thereof, respectively as shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13.

The reduction of discharging benefit (unit: unit) of table 2-82011-2020 wind-electricity integration generating

As can be seen from above-mentioned analog result, as most competitiveness, the most potential energy in clean energy resource, wind-powered electricity generation will show all the more its contribution in energy-saving and emission-reduction along with the continuous increase of installed capacity.Wind-powered electricity generation mainly can pass through CO to the environmental benefit that thermoelectricity is replaced ₂reduction of discharging benefit, SO ₂reduction of discharging benefit and the reduction of discharging benefit of NOx measure.As can be seen from the above table, CO ₂cER, SO ₂cER and the CER of NOx, and CO ₂reduction of discharging benefit, SO ₂the reduction of discharging benefit reducing discharging benefit and NOx all constantly increases along with the increase of installed capacity of wind-driven power, and this shows that wind-electricity integration generating can bring larger environmental benefit, contributes to the realization of Shandong Province's target for energy-saving and emission-reduction.But, because wind-electricity integration wind-powered electricity generation can bring larger assistant service cost simultaneously, therefore, Shandong Province is while extensive development wind-electricity integration, need to take into account the economic benefit of wind-electricity integration, assistant service cost and environmental benefit, avoid the phenomenon of blind investment, realize the health of wind-powered electricity generation, orderly, sustainable development.

By reference to the accompanying drawings the specific embodiment of the present invention is described although above-mentioned; but not limiting the scope of the invention; one of ordinary skill in the art should be understood that; on the basis of technical scheme of the present invention, those skilled in the art do not need to pay various amendment or distortion that creative work can make still within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems an analytical method, it is characterized in that, comprising:

Direct economic benefit is analyzed, and the direct economic benefit that analysis regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems is exactly the cost benefit that analysis regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, and needs generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income and cost accounting of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems to regenerative resource; Build the direct economic benefit analytical system kinetic model that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems of regenerative resource, income that this model comprises renewable energy power generation amount, regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and regenerative resource are generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost;

The system dynamics equation of direct economic benefit analytical system kinetic model,

(1) state equation:

$Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-1)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

Q _renew(0)---the initial energy output of regenerative resource, kWh;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(2) rate equation:

$\begin{array}{c}{q}_{\mathrm{renrw}}\left(t\right)=\frac{\mathrm{TECH}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICY}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}{\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}\\ *Q_{\mathrm{renrw}}(t-1)\end{array}---(2-2)$

In formula

TECH (t)---the technological progress factor;

TECHW (t)---technological progress weight;

POLICY (t)---the policy support factor;

POLICYW (t)---policy support weight;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(3) subsidiary equation:

E _gen(t)＝B _gen(t)-C _gen(t)(2-3)

B _gen(t)＝Q _gen(t)*p _gen(t)(2-4)

C _gen(t)＝C _oper(t)+C _mana(t)+C _cons(t)(2-5)

In formula

B _gen(t)---the grid-connected direct economic benefit of regenerative resource, unit;

B _gen(t)---income of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, unit;

Q _gent ()---generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost, unit;

Q _gen(t)---electricity volume, kWh;

P _gen(t)---rate for incorporation into the power network, unit/kWh;

C _oper(t)---regenerative resource operating cost, unit;

C _cons(t)---renewable energy source management cost, unit;

C _mana(t)---regenerative resource construction cost, unit;

Q _gen(t)＝Q _renew(t)*(1-ζ)(2-6)

C _oper(t)＝Q _renew(t)*c _oper(t)(2-7)

C _mana(t)＝Q _renew(t)*c _mana(t)(2-8)

C _cons(t)＝Θ _cons(t)*c _cons(t)(2-9)

In formula

ζ---station service power consumption rate;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

C _oper(t)---regenerative resource operating cost, unit;

C _mana(t)---regenerative resource construction cost, unit;

C _cons(t)---renewable energy source management cost, unit;

C _oper(t)---unit quantity of electricity operating cost, unit/kWh;

C _mana(t)---unit quantity of electricity management cost, unit/kWh;

C _cons(t)---unit capacity construction cost, unit/kVA;

Θ _cons(t)---installed capacity, kVA;

Peak regulation cost participates in the active power balance after system grid connection, the cost that keeping system is stablized and caused, the income that its value is equivalent to normal power supplies participation degree of depth peak regulation and generates electricity less to maintain renewable energy power generation;

Assistant service cost analysis, assistant service refers to safe and stable operation in order to safeguard electric power system and ensures the necessary service of the quality of power supply, build the system dynamics model of assistant service cost analysis, this model comprises peak regulation cost, frequency modulation cost and spinning reserve cost;

The system dynamics equation of the system dynamics model of assistant service cost analysis is:

(1) state equation:

A. peak regulation cost

$C_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(0\right)+{\mathrm{\Ω}}_{\mathrm{peak}}*\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{peak}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-10)$

In formula

C _peak(t)---adjust cutting edge of a knife or a sword cost, unit;

C _peak(0)---initial peak regulation cost, unit;

Ω _peak---unit peak regulation cost, unit/kWh;

Q _peak(t)---unit interval few electricity amount;

B. frequency modulation cost

$C_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{freq}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-11)$

In formula

C _freq(t)---frequency modulation cost, unit;

C _freq(0)---initial frequency modulation cost, unit;

Q _freq(t)---unit interval frequency modulation cost;

C. spinning reserve cost

$C_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(t\right)=C_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{revo}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-12)$

In formula

C _revo(t)---spinning reserve cost, unit;

C _revo(0)---initial spinning reserve cost, unit;

Q _revo(t)---unit interval stand-by cost, unit;

(2) rate equation:

q _peak(t)＝α*Θ _con(t)-P _real(t)(2-13)

q _freq(t)＝η*Ω _freq(2-14)

q _revo(t)＝Ω _revo*Θ _res(t)(2-15)

In formula

Q _peak(t)---unit interval few electricity amount;

α---basic peak regulation coefficient;

Θ _con(t)---conventional rack capacity;

P _realt ()---conventional rack is actual exerts oneself;

Q _freq(t)---unit interval frequency modulation cost;

η---unit interval fluctuating power;

Ω _freq---unit frequency modulation cost;

Q _revo(t)---unit interval stand-by cost;

Ω _revo---unit reserve capacity cost;

Θ _res(t)---reserve capacity summation;

(3) subsidiary equation:

C _auxi(t)＝C _revo(t)+C _peak(t)+C _revo(t)(2-16)

P _real(t)＝P _pre(0)+0.03*C _auxi(t)(2-17)

η＝μ*P _total(2-18)

C _auxi(t)---supplementary costs, unit;

C _peak(t)---peak regulation cost, unit;

C _freq(t)---frequency modulation cost, unit;

C _revo(t)---spinning reserve cost, unit;

P _realt ()---conventional rack is actual exerts oneself;

P _pre(0)---predict fiducial value of exerting oneself;

η---unit interval fluctuating power;

μ---power fluctuation coefficient;

P _total---system total load;

Environmental Effect Analysis, build regenerative resource to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the system dynamics model of Environmental Effect Analysis, this model utilizes system dynamics, analyze the model of relation between each key element of renewable energy power generation environmental benefit, this model is the size of renewable energy power generation amount and the reduction of discharging benefit brought thus mainly;

The system dynamics equation of the system dynamics model of Environmental Effect Analysis is:

(1) state equation:

$Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)=Q_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(0\right)+\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\∫}}{q}_{\mathrm{renew}}\left(t\right)\mathrm{dt}---(2-1)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

Q _renew(0)---the initial energy output of regenerative resource, kWh;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(2) rate equation:

$\begin{array}{c}{q}_{\mathrm{renrw}}\left(t\right)=\frac{\mathrm{TECH}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICY}\left(t\right)*\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}{\mathrm{TECHW}\left(t\right)+\mathrm{POLICYW}\left(t\right)}\\ *Q_{\mathrm{renrw}}(t-1)\end{array}---(2-2)$

In formula

TECH (t)---the technological progress factor;

TECHW (t)---technological progress weight;

POLICY (t)---the policy support factor;

POLICYW (t)---policy support weight;

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation changing value, kWh/;

(3) subsidiary equation:

$B_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2}\left(t\right)=N_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2}\left(t\right)*b_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2}---(2-22)$

$B_{{\mathrm{SO}}_2}\left(t\right)=N_{{\mathrm{SO}}_2}\left(t\right)*b_{{\mathrm{SO}}_2}---(2-23)$

$B_{{\mathrm{NO}}_x}\left(t\right)=N_{{\mathrm{NO}}_x}\left(t\right)*b_{{\mathrm{NO}}_x}---(2-24)$

$B_{\mathrm{env}}\left(t\right)=B_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2}\left(t\right)+B_{{\mathrm{SO}}_2}\left(t\right)+B_{{\mathrm{NO}}_x}\left(t\right)---(2-25)$

In formula

Q _renew(t)---renewable energy power generation amount, kWh;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xunit discharge, kg/kWh;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xcER, kg;

---show CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xunit reduce discharging be worth, unit/kg;

---represent CO respectively ₂, SO ₂, NO _xreduction of discharging benefit, unit;

B _env(t)---represent and reduce discharging benefit total amount, unit.

2. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described renewable energy power generation amount, is the total energy output of regenerative resource.

3. the method for claim 1, it is characterized in that, described regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems income, is under existing electricity price regulation, regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the income that electricity power enterprise is obtained, numerically equal rate for incorporation into the power network and grid-connected after the product of average energy output.

4. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems cost, is that regenerative resource is generated electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the cost brought to electricity power enterprise, mainly comprises construction cost, operating cost and management cost.

5. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described frequency modulation cost, is that renewable energy power generation participates in system grid connection, the cost caused in order to keeping system frequency stabilization.

6. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described spinning reserve cost, is the fluctuation in order to balance generated output of renewable energy source and unsteadiness, increases the cost that spinning reserve demand is brought.

7. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described reduction of discharging benefit, is the increase due to renewable energy power generation amount, reduces or alternative thermal power output, reduces the use to coal resources, thus the low-carbon (LC) realizing power industry generating end is produced.