CN103279807A - Static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather - Google Patents
Static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather Download PDFInfo
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- CN103279807A CN103279807A CN2013101628263A CN201310162826A CN103279807A CN 103279807 A CN103279807 A CN 103279807A CN 2013101628263 A CN2013101628263 A CN 2013101628263A CN 201310162826 A CN201310162826 A CN 201310162826A CN 103279807 A CN103279807 A CN 103279807A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a static risk assessment method for a power grid in severe weather. The probability of failures of the power grid and static safety risks caused by the failures in the severe weather can be analyzed, and support is provided for the discovery of potential risks of the power grid in the severe weather and the advanced reduction of operation risks and failure loss of the power grid. According to the method, the probability and the seriousness of the failures caused by the severe weather are taken into comprehensive account, a disclosed static safety index can be used for the static safety risk assessment of the power grid in the severe weather in different regions, an effective analysis tool for finding weak links of the power grid in static safety in the severe weather, and favorable support for the early-warning of the failures in the severe weather can be provided, and the failure loss, caused by the severe weather, of the power grid can be reduced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of power system security methods of risk assessment, relate in particular to electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under a kind of inclement weather.
Background technology
Power industry is the lifeblood of national economy, and stable, the operation efficiently of electrical network are the important leverages that social development and people's productive life are normally carried out.Therefore, if electric system generation major accident causes the stability of electrical network to be destroyed, will inevitably bring enormous economic loss to entire society.Historical statistical data shows that inclement weather has tremendous influence to electric network fault, and inclement weather is threatening the power supply safety of electrical network always.Unusual along with the warming of global climate, circulation, inclement weather is more and more frequent in the world wide, and this brings new bigger challenge to electric power netting safe running.
Traditional electrical network static security is evaluated at the general the most serious malfunction of influence of only paying attention in the analysis, and the probability that the partial fault state occurs may be very little, make assessment result too conservative, when in the system of assurance more complete works of nargin being arranged, but sacrificed the economy of system; And traditional static security assessment do not consider possibility and seriousness that fault occurs comprehensively, and the consideration of single aspect makes result and reality often exist than large deviation.Along with the foundation of electricity market mechanism, the concept of risk has been introduced in the analytical approach of electric system, and the analytical approach of electric system was changed to the uncertain research mode that combines with determinacy by former Deterministic Methods.Therefore, risk evaluation result can reflect the probability that fault takes place, and takes into account the consequence that fault causes again, for the tolerance of electric network security provides statement more accurately.
Yet, in the present electrical network static security risk assessment study that carries out, do not have special in the electric network fault probability calculation model that is caused by the inclement weather factor, and electrical network static security methods of risk assessment under the corresponding inclement weather.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of this invention is to provide electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under a kind of inclement weather, can analyze the probability that electric network fault under the inclement weather takes place and the static security risk that causes, for finding electrical network potential risk under the inclement weather, reducing operation of power networks risk and breakdown loss in advance and provide support.
The present invention adopts following technical proposals:
Electrical network static risk appraisal procedure may further comprise the steps under a kind of inclement weather
A: selected electrical network to be assessed, and obtain failure rate under topological connection relation, structural parameters, load parameter and the historical inclement weather of electrical network to be assessed, enter step B then;
B: electrical network to be assessed is carried out trend calculate, the state and the trend that obtain system under the normal condition distribute, and enter step C then;
C: the forecast failure that carries out under the inclement weather is chosen, and calculates the probability that is caused fault by this inclement weather, enters step D then;
D: under the forecast failure of choosing, carry out trend and calculate, enter step e then:
E: judge whether the trend result calculated restrains under the forecast failure, if the trend convergence enters step H; If trend does not restrain, then enter step F;
F: cut-out load or increase generator output to keep electric network swim convergence under the fault that inclement weather causes, enters step G then;
G: calculate the load value that execution in step F operation is lost, and carry out trend calculating again at the cut-out load or after increasing generator output, enter step H then;
H: calculate static security risk indicator and static security integrated risk index result, output static security risk result.
Among the step C, described forecast failure comprises the N-1 substance fault that caused by inclement weather and the common cause failure fault that causes of inclement weather on a large scale.
The computing formula of the described N-1 substance probability of malfunction that is caused by inclement weather is
Wherein, λ
iBe i bar circuit or the failure rate of bus under inclement weather, can obtain according to the historical data statistics that t is timing statistics; The computing formula of the described common cause failure probability of malfunction that is caused by inclement weather on a large scale is p
g=P
(i)P
(m), wherein, P
(i)And P
(m)Be the probability of circuit under the same inclement weather or bus i and m stoppage in transit, P
(i)And P
(m)Computing formula be
p
iBe the probability of malfunction of each element under the inclement weather, n is the element number that transmission line of electricity is connected in logic.
Among the step H, described static security risk indicator comprises load risk R
1, node or the out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage
2With mistake load risk R
3
Described load risk R
1, node or the out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage
2With mistake load risk R
3Computing formula be R
i=pS
iStatic security integrated risk index computing formula is R=∑ R
i=∑ (pS
i), wherein, p is the probability that forecast failure takes place under the inclement weather, S
iIt is the consequence value of i kind risk indicator.
The computing formula of described i bar branch road overload risk consequence value is
When
The time, S
1i=0, wherein, P
iBe the actual active power of i bar branch road, P
ImaxBe i bar branch road maximum transmission power, m is undetermined constant, gets m=1;
Many branch roads all overladen system overload risk consequence value are the summation of every branch road overload risk consequence value.
The computing formula of described i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value is S
2i=(10 * (V
Mi-0.9))
2m, work as V
Mi＜0.9 o'clock, S
2i=0; V in the formula
MiBe the voltage magnitude of i node or bus, m is undetermined constant, gets m=1.
Described mistake load risk consequence value computing formula is S
3i=∑ γ
iP
Loss, i, wherein, γ
iBe the load significance level factor of i load point, P
Loss, iBe i load point load loss value.
General industry load γ
iGet 1, civilian and essential industry load γ
iGet 1.5, special supply load γ
iGet 2.
The present invention has taken all factors into consideration probability of malfunction that inclement weather causes and the seriousness of fault, the static security index that proposes can be used for electrical network static security risk assessment under the inclement weather of different regions, provide effective analysis tool for finding out electrical network weak link in the static security under inclement weather, can hold for fault pre-alarming under the inclement weather provides favourable twelve Earthly Branches, and reduce electrical network because the breakdown loss that inclement weather causes.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is process flow diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention includes following steps:
A: selected electrical network to be assessed, and obtain failure rate under topological connection relation, structural parameters, load parameter and the historical inclement weather of electrical network to be assessed, enter step B then;
B: electrical network to be assessed is carried out trend calculate, the state and the trend that obtain system under the normal condition distribute, and enter step C then;
C: the forecast failure that carries out under the inclement weather is chosen, and calculates the probability that is caused fault by this inclement weather, enters step D then;
D: under the forecast failure of choosing, carry out trend and calculate, enter step e then:
E: judge whether the trend result calculated restrains under the forecast failure, if the trend convergence enters step H; If trend does not restrain, then enter step F;
F: cut-out load or increase generator output to keep electric network swim convergence under the fault that inclement weather causes, enters step G then;
G: calculate the load value that execution in step F operation is lost, and carry out trend calculating again at the cut-out load or after increasing generator output, enter step H then;
H: calculate static security risk indicator and static security integrated risk index result, output static security risk result.
In step C of the present invention, forecast failure comprises the N-1 substance fault that caused by inclement weather and the common cause failure fault that causes of inclement weather on a large scale.
When calculating probability of malfunction, the computing formula of the N-1 substance probability of malfunction that is caused by inclement weather is
Wherein, λ
iBe i bar circuit or the failure rate of bus under inclement weather, can obtain according to the historical data statistics that t is timing statistics; The computing formula of the common cause failure probability of malfunction that is caused by inclement weather on a large scale is p
g=P
(i)P
(m), wherein, P
(i)And P
(m)Be the probability of circuit under the same inclement weather or bus i and m stoppage in transit, P
(i)And P
(m)Computing formula be
p
iBe the probability of malfunction of each element under the inclement weather, n is the element number that transmission line of electricity is connected in logic.
In step H of the present invention, the static security risk indicator comprises load risk R
1, node or the out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage
2With mistake load risk R
3Load risk R
1, node or the out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage
2With mistake load risk R
3Computing formula be R
i=pS
iStatic security integrated risk index computing formula is
Wherein, p is the probability that forecast failure takes place under the inclement weather, S
iIt is the consequence value of i kind risk indicator.
The computing method of each risk indicator consequence value are as follows:
1. the computing formula of i bar branch road overload risk consequence value is
When
The time, S
1i=0, wherein, P
iBe the actual active power of i bar branch road, P
ImaxBe i bar branch road maximum transmission power, m is undetermined constant, gets m=1; Many branch roads all overladen system overload risk consequence value are the summation of every branch road overload risk consequence value.In the computation process of i bar branch road overload risk consequence value, " covering " defective phenomenon appears easily." covering " the defective phenomenon refers to be added up when obtaining by each element overload risk consequence value when system's overload risk consequence value, exist the overload risk consequence value of many heavy duties or little out-of-limit situation may be greater than the overload risk consequence value of having only a big out-of-limit situation in the system, yet, exist big out-of-limit situation often even more serious.When the branch road load factor less than 90% the time, overload risk consequence value is 0; When branch road when heavy duty, load factor between 90% to 100%, overload risk consequence value this moment value between 0 to 1; When branch road transships, load factor was greater than 100% o'clock, and overload risk consequence value is the value greater than 1.At this moment, overload risk consequence value not only can reflect the order of severity of each branch road overload, also can reflect the order of severity of branch road heavy duty.When heavy duty only takes place branch road, but when not having overload situations, the consequence value that discrete type and out-of-limit type function obtain is all 0, and there is not risk in surface system; But in fact, the system of heavy duty is at the area operation near ultimate value, and the system of this moment has implied danger, and any disturbance all might cause system to be transshipped.Under heavily loaded situation, the continuous type function can obtain the consequence value greater than 0, has disclosed the potential overload risk in the system to the management and running personnel.Therefore, in the present invention, the m value is 1, can effectively avoid the appearance of " covering " defective.
2. the computing formula of i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value is S
2i=(10 * (V
Mi-0.9))
2m, work as V
Mi＜0.9 o'clock, S
2i=0; V in the formula
MiBe the voltage magnitude of i node or bus, as mentioned above, m is undetermined constant, gets m=1, can effectively avoid the appearance of " covering " defective.When node voltage amplitude that and if only if equaled rated voltage, i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value got 0; When amplitude in the safe range of regulation when fluctuating, i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value value between 0 to 1; After amplitude ran off the voltage bound, i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value were greater than 1.At this moment, i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value not only can reflect the order of severity that each node voltage is out-of-limit, also can reflecting voltage and the voltage bound between degree of closeness, and then disclose the out-of-limit risk of potential voltage.
3. consider load significance level difference, losing load risk consequence value computing formula is S
3i=∑ γ
iP
Loss, i, wherein, γ
iBe the load significance level factor of i load point, general industry load γ
iGet 1, civilian and essential industry load γ
iGet 1.5, special supply load γ such as government of hospital
iGet 2; P
Loss, iBe i load point load loss value.
Claims (10)
1. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather is characterized in that: may further comprise the steps
A: selected electrical network to be assessed, and obtain failure rate under topological connection relation, structural parameters, load parameter and the historical inclement weather of electrical network to be assessed, enter step B then;
B: electrical network to be assessed is carried out trend calculate, the state and the trend that obtain system under the normal condition distribute, and enter step C then;
C: the forecast failure that carries out under the inclement weather is chosen, and calculates the probability that is caused fault by this inclement weather, enters step D then;
D: under the forecast failure of choosing, carry out trend and calculate, enter step e then:
E: judge whether the trend result calculated restrains under the forecast failure, if the trend convergence enters step H; If trend does not restrain, then enter step F;
F: cut-out load or increase generator output to keep electric network swim convergence under the fault that inclement weather causes, enters step G then;
G: calculate the load value that execution in step F operation is lost, and carry out trend calculating again at the cut-out load or after increasing generator output, enter step H then;
H: calculate static security risk indicator and static security integrated risk index result, output static security risk result.
2. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 1 is characterized in that: among the step C, described forecast failure comprises the N-1 substance fault that caused by inclement weather and the common cause failure fault that causes of inclement weather on a large scale.
3. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 2 is characterized in that: the computing formula of the described N-1 substance probability of malfunction that is caused by inclement weather is
Wherein, λ
iBe i bar circuit or the failure rate of bus under inclement weather, can obtain according to the historical data statistics that t is timing statistics; The computing formula of the described common cause failure probability of malfunction that is caused by inclement weather on a large scale is p
g=P
(i)P
(m), wherein, P
(i)And P
(m)Be the probability of circuit under the same inclement weather or bus i and m stoppage in transit, P
(i)And P
(m)Computing formula be
p
iBe the probability of malfunction of each element under the inclement weather, n is the element number that transmission line of electricity is connected in logic.
4. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 3 is characterized in that: among the step H, described static security risk indicator comprises load risk R
1, node or the out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage
2With mistake load risk R
3
5. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 4 is characterized in that: described load risk R
1, node or the out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage
2With mistake load risk R
3Computing formula be R
i=pS
iStatic security integrated risk index computing formula is
Wherein, p is the probability that forecast failure takes place under the inclement weather, S
iIt is the consequence value of i kind risk indicator.
6. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 5, it is characterized in that: the computing formula of described i bar branch road overload risk consequence value is
When
The time, S
1i=0, wherein, P
iBe the actual active power of i bar branch road, P
ImaxBe i bar branch road maximum transmission power, m is undetermined constant, gets m=1.
7. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 6 is characterized in that: many branch roads all overladen system overload risk consequence value are the summation of every branch road overload risk consequence value.
8. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 7, it is characterized in that: the computing formula of described i node or the out-of-limit risk consequence of busbar voltage value is S
2i=(10 * (V
Mi-0.9))
2m, work as V
Mi＜0.9 o'clock, S
2i=0; V in the formula
MiBe the voltage magnitude of i node or bus, m is undetermined constant, gets m=1.
9. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 8 is characterized in that: described mistake load risk consequence value computing formula is S
3i=∑ γ
iP
Loss, i, wherein, γ
iBe the load significance level factor of i load point, P
Loss, iBe i load point load loss value.
10. electrical network static risk appraisal procedure under the inclement weather according to claim 9 is characterized in that: general industry load γ
iGet 1, civilian and essential industry load γ
iGet 1.5, special supply load γ
iGet 2.
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