CN102437573B - Evaluation and control method and system for reliability of electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling - Google Patents

Evaluation and control method and system for reliability of electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling Download PDF

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CN102437573B
CN102437573B CN201110450211.1A CN201110450211A CN102437573B CN 102437573 B CN102437573 B CN 102437573B CN 201110450211 A CN201110450211 A CN 201110450211A CN 102437573 B CN102437573 B CN 102437573B
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distribution network
supply circuit
current supply
rate
reliability
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CN102437573A (en
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康文韬
刘莎
李锐
黄志伟
刘文山
冯悦波
王艳杰
金义雄
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Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co Ltd
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Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau guangdong Grid Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides an evaluation and control method and system for reliability of an electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling. In the invention, by analyzing fuzzy modeling for reliability prediction and evaluation of the planned electric distribution network, the electric distribution network to be subject to reliability prediction and evaluation is simplified; and prediction and evaluation analysis is carried out on power supply reliability of the electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling of the electric distribution network so as to more accurately and quantificationally analyze impact of various construction and transformation projects of the electric distribution network and various technologies and measures on the reliability level of the planned electric distribution network and to evaluate and predict more reasonable power supply reliability indexes, so that optimum control can be carried out on the power supply reliability indexes in the planning year. Therefore, by adopting the technical scheme, the operating reliability and power quality of the electric distribution network as well as economic benefit of the system can be improved.

Description

Evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method and system thereof based on obscurity model building
Technical field
The present invention relates to the reliability index optimisation technique field of power distribution network, relate in particular to a kind of evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building, and a kind of evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building.
Background technology
Along with the develop rapidly of modern social economy, the extensive of high-tech product and advanced IT application equipment popularized, the output value rising that the every degree of user is electric, and unit power failure is measured to user and the social economic loss causing increasing.Therefore, user is also more and more higher to the requirement of power supply reliability, to the research of power system reliability and application, is to guarantee power supply quality, realizes the modern important means of power industry.While carrying out power system reliability research, because power distribution network after planning has the probabilistic feature of network topology structure or excessive owing to setting up the required labor workload of detailed network topology structure, the workload of power distribution network to be assessed being carried out to reliability prediction assessment will be very large.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of can realize distribution network reliability index automatic analysis by computer technology, simplifies the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building of analysis of Reliability process.
The described evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building, comprising:
Obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, the fuzzy electricity distribution network model according to described characterisitic parameter foundation with described power distribution network equivalence;
Obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of described power distribution network, according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carry out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building, ask for Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data;
Obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of described power distribution network, according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carry out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building, ask for Distribution Network Equipment planning yearly plan outage rate data;
Described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, obtain each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or the reliability index of each power supply zone, calculate the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
According to the whole network reliability index of described power distribution network, described power distribution network is planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year.
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is also to provide a kind of can realize distribution network reliability index automatic analysis by computer technology, simplifies the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building of analysis of Reliability process.
The described evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building, comprising: electricity distribution network model maintenance module, and for obtaining the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, the fuzzy electricity distribution network model according to described characterisitic parameter foundation with described power distribution network equivalence; Fault data MBM, for obtaining the equipment fault historical statistical data of described power distribution network, carries out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data; Planned outage data modeling module, for obtaining the planned outage historical statistical data of described power distribution network, carries out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning yearly plan outage rate data; Reliability index computing module, for described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, obtains each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or the reliability index of each power supply zone, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network; Control module, for planning the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year to described power distribution network according to the whole network reliability index of described power distribution network.
Compared with prior art, evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method and the system thereof based on obscurity model building of the present invention, by the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, sets up the fuzzy electricity distribution network model with power distribution network equivalence to be tested and assessed.And according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model and historical equipment fault statistics and planned outage statistics, carry out the obscurity model building of equipment fault data and planned outage data, ask for Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data and planned outage rate data, thus to power distribution network the whole network reliability index in planning year; Described the whole network reliability index obtains by described fuzzy electricity distribution network model being carried out to loop search, finally according to described the whole network reliability index, described power distribution network is planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year.
The obscurity model building of distribution network reliability forecast assessment after the present invention plans by analysis, power distribution network to pending reliability prediction assessment carries out abbreviation, based on power distribution network obscurity model building, the power supply reliability of power distribution network is carried out to forecast assessment analysis, make every effort to quantitative analysis comparatively exactly and go out various distribution network constructions, transformation and various technology, the impact of control measures on the distribution network reliability level after planning, evaluation prediction goes out comparatively reasonably power supply reliability index, with this, plan the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year, improve power distribution network reliability of operation and the quality of power supply, the economic benefit of raising system.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method of obscurity model building;
Fig. 2 is the main current supply circuit of power distribution network and the schematic diagram of sub-current supply circuit;
Fig. 3 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system of obscurity model building.
Embodiment
Refer to Fig. 1, Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method of obscurity model building.
Evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building of the present invention comprises the following steps:
S1, obtains the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, according to described characterisitic parameter, sets up the fuzzy electricity distribution network model with described power distribution network equivalence;
The characterisitic parameter of the described power distribution network obtaining in this step comprises: the cable average length of described power distribution network, overhead wire average length, insulation rate, the average block switch number of overhead wire, the average block switch number of cable, backbone load factor, single radiation main line ratio, the main line ratio of handing in hand, many tie trunks ratio, average every circuit distribution transformer number of units, distribution transformer average size, distribution transformer Rate of average load; Based on this, in the computer at Control and Schedule center, set up the fuzzy electricity distribution network model with the above-mentioned every power distribution network electrical network characterisitic parameter one to obtaining.
With described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carry out the fail-safe analysis of power distribution network, complicated distribution network reliability achievement data can be simplified.
S2, obtains the equipment fault historical statistical data of described power distribution network, according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carries out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building, asks for a Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data;
In this step, the step of carrying out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model comprises: take historical year failure-rate data of an operational outfit of described power distribution network as basis, utilize least squares equation
Figure GDA0000390856860000031
ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation, wherein, t is history run year, and x is equipment failure rate; Then by the coefficient a, the b that try to achieve, c substitution equation ask for the planning equipment failure rate data in year.
Particularly, first obtain the power distribution network to be assessed failure-rate data in certain device history year, suppose corresponding to t 1～t na historical year failure rate for year this equipment is x 1～x n, then adopt auto-adaptive time series model, set up least squares equation
Figure GDA0000390856860000033
there is following equation group:
x 1 x 2 x 3 . . . x n T = a b c T 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 . . . 1 n n 2 T
Brief note is:
X T = a b c T A T
Wherein, a, b, c is undetermined coefficient,
a b c T = X T A ( A T A ) - 1
Have: t n+1this equipment failure rate x in year n+1=a+b (n+1)+c (n+1) 2, finally, obtain one by one after the same method the failure-rate data of each equipment of power distribution network to be assessed.
S3, obtains the planned outage historical statistical data of described power distribution network, according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carries out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning yearly plan outage rate data;
In this step, the step of carrying out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model comprises:
Take operational outfit of described power distribution network planned outage rate of historical year and plan capital quantity data as basis, utilize least squares equation
Figure GDA0000390856860000044
ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation, wherein, p is plan capital quantity data, and y is planned outage rate data;
Then by the coefficient a, the b that try to achieve, c substitution equation in conjunction with the planning plan capital quantity data in year, calculate the planning facilities plan outage rate data in year.
Particularly, first obtain planned outage rate and the plan capital quantity data in a certain device history year of power distribution network to be evaluated, suppose corresponding to t 1～t nthe planned outage rate in the device history year in year is y 1～y n, plan capital quantity is p 1～p n, t n+1the plan capital quantity in year is p n+1, then adopt self adaptation Model On Relationship Analysis, set up least squares equation
y i = a + bp i + cp i 2 .
There is following equation group:
y 1 y 2 y 3 . . . y n T = a b c T 1 p 1 p 1 2 1 p 2 p 2 2 1 p 3 p 3 2 . . . 1 p n p n 2 T
Brief note is:
Y T = a b c T A T
Wherein, a, b, c is undetermined coefficient,
a b c T = Y T A ( A T A ) - 1
Have: t n+1the facilities plan outage rate in year
Figure GDA0000390856860000055
finally, solve one by one after the same method other facilities plan outage rates of power distribution network to be evaluated.
S4, carries out loop search to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, obtains each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or the reliability index of each power supply zone, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Wherein, described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, comprise described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to main current supply circuit search and the search of sub-current supply circuit.By described main current supply circuit search and sub-current supply circuit, search for, calculate the reliability index of described main current supply circuit and described sub-current supply circuit.Above-mentioned main current supply circuit search reliability index is calculated the mains side of having realized each power supply zone or distribution substation or distribution transformer to the calculating of the search of supply path between upper level power supply and the comprehensive outage rate of corresponding this supply path, comprehensive year interruption duration.Above-mentioned sub-current supply circuit search reliability index calculate realized each electricity consumption user to or each power supply zone or distribution substation or distribution transformer between the calculating of supply path search and the comprehensive outage rate of corresponding this supply path, comprehensive year interruption duration.
The result of calculation of described reliability index is electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration.The computational methods of described electricity consumption user outage rate index are: the comprehensive outage rate of main current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of sub-current supply circuit and user's outage rate sum.The computational methods of described electricity consumption user year interruption duration index are: the comprehensive year interruption duration of main current supply circuit, the comprehensive year interruption duration of sub-current supply circuit and electricity consumption user year interruption duration sum.
Wherein, when calculating the reliability index of described main current supply circuit, set following rule:
A1, if on described main current supply circuit without block switch, by failure rate and the planned outage rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the described main current supply circuit that adds up; And the described failure rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit is multiplied by its fault correction time, add the above planned outage rate and be multiplied by its idle time, in comprehensive year interruption duration of the described main current supply circuit that adds up;
A2, if having block switch and interconnection switch on described main current supply circuit, by the failure rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the described main current supply circuit that adds up; The outage rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit is multiplied by the higher value in block switch operating time and interconnection switch back brake time, and in year interruption duration of the described main current supply circuit that adds up;
A3, if having block switch on described main current supply circuit, but without interconnection switch, adds planned outage rate by the failure rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit, adds up in the comprehensive outage rate of described main current supply circuit; Each power supply unit failure rate of described main current supply circuit is multiplied by fault correction time, and each power supply unit planned outage rate that adds the above main current supply circuit is multiplied by idle time, in year interruption duration of the described main current supply circuit that adds up.
When calculating the outage rate index of described sub-current supply circuit, set following rule:
B1, if having fuse in described sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is 0;
B2, if there is circuit breaker in described sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit equals each circuit breaker failure rate on described sub-current supply circuit and is multiplied by (1-P) ksum, wherein, P is that in described sub-current supply circuit, each circuit breaker on average reliably cut-offs rate, k is the number of circuit breaker on described sub-current supply circuit;
B3, if having isolating switch in described sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is each fault isolating switch rate sum of described sub-current supply circuit;
B4, if in described sub-current supply circuit without any equipment to be opened/closed, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is 0.
Preferably, the priority of above-mentioned each operation rule is followed successively by calculation step b1, b2, b3 and b4 from high to low.
That is, 4 rules that comprehensive outage rate in the calculating of above-mentioned sub-current supply circuit search reliability index calculates, without full entry, calculate, above-mentioned 4 regular priority be by regular b1 to regular b4, not computation rule b2, regular b3, regular b4 when regular b1 meets, when not meeting regular b1 and meeting regular b2, computation rule b3, regular b4 condition, do not meet regular b1, regular b2, and while meeting regular b3, computation rule b4 not, finally computation rule 4.
Year in calculating the reliability index of described sub-current supply circuit during interruption duration index, is set following rule:
C1, if described sub-current supply circuit without block switch, comprehensive year interruption duration computational methods of described sub-current supply circuit are identical with interruption duration computation rule a1 of comprehensive year of main current supply circuit;
C2, if described sub-current supply circuit has block switch, no matter whether described sub-current supply circuit has available interconnection switch, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is multiplied by the block switch operating time of described sub-current supply circuit and the higher value in the power switch back brake time, and in year interruption duration of the described sub-current supply circuit that adds up.
S5, plans the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year to described power distribution network according to the whole network reliability index of described power distribution network.
In this step, user data along the line is synthesized, obtain the index of the whole network.
Above-mentioned the whole network reliability index comprises: system System average interruption frequency, Suo Xie SAIF index S AIFI (inferior/family. year), system System average interruption duration, Suo Xie SAID index S AIDI (hour/family. year), user's System average interruption duration, Suo Xie SAID index CAIDI (hour/power failure family. inferior), average power supply reliability index ASAI (%), the not enough index ENSI (MWh/) of electric weight that system is total, average electricity deficiency index AENS (MWh/. family), 7 evaluating reliability of distribution network indexs such as loss of outage LOSS (ten thousand yuan/year) that system is total.
Above-mentioned system System average interruption frequency, Suo Xie SAIF index S AIFI (inferior/family. year) computing formula is:
SAIFI = Σ i = 1 n λ i N i Σ i = 1 n N i
λ wherein ifor load bus i(is electricity consumption user) year outage rate index, N inumber of users for load bus i.
Said system System average interruption duration, Suo Xie SAID index S AIDI (hour/family. year) computing formula is:
SAIDI = Σ i = 1 n U i N i Σ i = 1 n N i
Wherein: U ifor the year interruption duration index of load bus i, N inumber of users for load bus i.Above-mentioned user's System average interruption duration, Suo Xie SAID index CAIDI (hour/power failure family. inferior) computing formula is:
CAIDI = Σ i = 1 n U i N i Σ i = 1 n λ i N i
Above-mentioned average power supply reliability index ASAI (%) computing formula is:
ASAI = Σ i = 1 n N i × 8760 - Σ i = 1 n U i N i Σ i = 1 n N i × 8760
Total not enough index ENSI (MWh/) computing formula of electric weight of said system is:
ENSI = Σ i = 1 n L ai U i
Wherein: L aithe average load power of i load bus.
Above-mentioned average electricity is not enough index AENS (MWh/. family) computing formula is:
AENS = Σ i = 1 n L ai U i Σ i = 1 n N i
Total loss of outage LOSS (ten thousand yuan/year) computing formula of said system is:
LOSS=ENSI* average electricity price
Distribution network reliability forecast assessment regulate and control method based on power distribution network fuzzy Modeling Method of the present invention, has improved power distribution network reliability of operation and the quality of power supply.
The obscurity model building of distribution network reliability forecast assessment after the present invention plans by analysis, power distribution network to pending reliability prediction assessment carries out abbreviation, based on power distribution network obscurity model building, the power supply reliability of power distribution network is carried out to forecast assessment analysis, make every effort to quantitative analysis comparatively exactly and go out various distribution network constructions, transformation and various technology, the impact of control measures on the distribution network reliability level after planning, evaluation prediction goes out comparatively reasonably power supply reliability index, with this, plan the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year, improve power distribution network reliability of operation and the quality of power supply, the economic benefit of raising system.
Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building of the present invention is described in further detail.
Suppose certain electrical network main line average length X1=3.5(km/ bar), cable rate X2=92(%), the average block switch of main line is counted X3=2.5(platform), it is X4=1(bar that average every backbone divides number), branch line average length X5=1.7(km/ bar), single radiation main line ratio X6=10(%), cable in single radiation wiring, ratio built on stilts and blend is respectively 60%, 40% and 0%, main line ratio X7=80(% hands in hand), cable in wiring hand in hand, ratio built on stilts and blend is respectively 90%, 5% and 5%, many tie trunks ratio X8=10(%), cable in multi-joint network wiring, ratio built on stilts and blend is respectively 90%, 0% and 10%, average every main line distribution transformer number of units X9=13(platform/bar), average every branch line distribution transformer number of units X10=6(platform/bar) distribution transformer average size X11=400(kVA/ platform), distribution transformer Rate of average load X12=58(%).Cable model is YJV-300, and overhead transmission line model is LGJ-185.
First, step S11, according to above-mentioned electrical network characterisitic parameter, the equivalent fuzzy calculation of distribution network model of setting up is: 100 10kV backbones, article 6, cable is single radiation wiring, article 4, overhead wire is single radiation wiring, article 72, cable is wiring hand in hand, article 4, overhead wire is wiring hand in hand, article 4, blend is wiring hand in hand, article 9, cable is multi-joint network wiring, article 1, blend is multi-joint network wiring, backbone length is 3.5km, article 50, line sectionalizing switch number is 2, article 50, line sectionalizing switch number is 3, every main line is drawn a branch line, branch line length 1.7km, cable model is made as YJV-300, overhead transmission line model is made as LGJ-185.13 of 50% distribution transformers that main line is with, 14 of 50% distribution transformers that main line is with, every branch line is with 6 of distribution transformer parameters, and every station power distribution transformer capacity is 400kVA, every distribution transforming institute on-load is 400*58%*0.95=220.4MW, and power factor gets 0.95.
S12, obtains on power distribution network to be evaluated failure rate, outage rate, failure recovery time, the planned outage time of each electric equipment, the historical data of plan capital quantity.
S13, then utilizes least square fitting to go out formula
Figure GDA0000390856860000101
the historical data of described failure rate, outage rate, failure recovery time, planned outage time, plan capital quantity, calculate a, b, c coefficient, utilizes a obtaining, b, c coefficient and corresponding formula, dope failure rate and the outage rate of planning year equipment, that is, utilize least square method to calculate power distribution network to be evaluated at failure rate, the outage rate of each electric equipment in planning year.
S14, and for the mean failure rate recovery time of each electric equipment on power distribution network to be evaluated and the on average calculating of planned outage time, need failure recovery time and the planned outage time history annual data of each electric equipment., according to formula
Figure GDA0000390856860000102
that is historical year failure recovery time, the planned outage time of each electric equipment of described power distribution network to be evaluated, calculate a, b, c coefficient, a of above-mentioned two formula, b, c coefficient is different, just represents that symbol is identical.Then utilize a obtain, b, c coefficient and corresponding formula, obtain each electric equipment mean failure rate recovery time and average planned outage time.
S15, obtains each electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration based on loop search method, comprise that main current supply circuit search and sub-current supply circuit search for the calculating of two parts.
As shown in Figure 2, in Fig. 2,15 represent that bus electric equipment, 16 represents the electric equipment of circuit breaker, and 17 represent power transmission line electric equipment, and in figure, heavy line represents described main current supply circuit, and fine line represents described sub-current supply circuit.When calculating, the calculating of described main current supply circuit search electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration comprises 3 computation rules, and result of calculation is comprehensive year interruption duration U of the comprehensive outage rate ξ of main current supply circuit and main current supply circuit;
In described sub-current supply circuit search calculating, the calculating of comprehensive year interruption duration comprises two computation rules, according to the network connection form of power distribution network to be evaluated, carries out rule judgment, then selects computation rule.
S16, carries out the calculating of the whole network reliability index according to each electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration.
Refer to Fig. 3, Fig. 3 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system of obscurity model building.
The described evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building comprises:
Electricity distribution network model maintenance module 31, for obtaining the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, the fuzzy electricity distribution network model according to described characterisitic parameter foundation with described power distribution network equivalence;
Fault data MBM 31, for obtaining the equipment fault historical statistical data of described power distribution network, carries out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data;
Planned outage data modeling module 33, for obtaining the planned outage historical statistical data of described power distribution network, carries out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning yearly plan outage rate data;
Reliability index computing module 34, for described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, obtains each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or the reliability index of each power supply zone, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Regulation and control module 35, for planning the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year to described power distribution network according to the whole network reliability index of described power distribution network.
Above-described embodiment of the present invention, does not form limiting the scope of the present invention.Any modification of doing within the spirit and principles in the present invention, be equal to and replace and improvement etc., within all should being included in claim protection range of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
Obtain the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, the fuzzy electricity distribution network model according to described characterisitic parameter foundation with described power distribution network equivalence;
Obtain the equipment fault historical statistical data of described power distribution network, according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carry out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building, ask for Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data;
Obtain the planned outage historical statistical data of described power distribution network, according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, carry out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building, ask for Distribution Network Equipment planning yearly plan outage rate data;
Described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, obtain each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or the reliability index of each power supply zone, calculate the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
According to the whole network reliability index of described power distribution network, described power distribution network is planned the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year.
2. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the characterisitic parameter of the described power distribution network obtaining comprises: the cable average length of described power distribution network, overhead wire average length, insulation rate, the average block switch number of overhead wire, the average block switch number of cable, backbone load factor, single radiation main line ratio, the main line ratio of handing in hand, many tie trunks ratio, average every circuit distribution transformer number of units, distribution transformer average size, distribution transformer Rate of average load;
Foundation comprises with the step of the fuzzy electricity distribution network model of described power distribution network equivalence:
In the computer at Control and Schedule center, set up the fuzzy electricity distribution network model with the above-mentioned every power distribution network electrical network characterisitic parameter one to obtaining.
3. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, the step of carrying out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model comprises:
Take historical year failure-rate data of an operational outfit of described power distribution network as basis, utilize least squares equation
Figure FDA0000390856850000011
ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation, wherein, t is history run year, and x is equipment failure rate;
Then by the coefficient a, the b that try to achieve, c substitution equation
Figure FDA0000390856850000012
ask for the planning equipment failure rate data in year.
4. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, the step of carrying out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model comprises:
Take operational outfit of described power distribution network planned outage rate of historical year and plan capital quantity data as basis, utilize least squares equation
Figure FDA0000390856850000021
ask for coefficient a, b, the c of corresponding equation, wherein, p is plan capital quantity data, and y is planned outage rate data;
Then by the coefficient a, the b that try to achieve, c substitution equation
Figure FDA0000390856850000022
in conjunction with the planning plan capital quantity data in year, calculate the planning facilities plan outage rate data in year.
5. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as described in any one in claim 1 to 4, it is characterized in that, described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, and the step of obtaining the reliability index of each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or each power supply zone comprises:
Described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to main current supply circuit search and the search of sub-current supply circuit, calculate the reliability index of described main current supply circuit and described sub-current supply circuit, wherein, described reliability index is electricity consumption user's outage rate and interruption duration.
6. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 5, is characterized in that, calculates the reliability index of described main current supply circuit according to following operation rule:
A1, if on described main current supply circuit without block switch, by failure rate and the planned outage rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the described main current supply circuit that adds up; And the described failure rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit is multiplied by its fault correction time, add the above planned outage rate and be multiplied by its idle time, in comprehensive year interruption duration of the described main current supply circuit that adds up;
A2, if having block switch and interconnection switch on described main current supply circuit, by the failure rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit, in the comprehensive outage rate of the described main current supply circuit that adds up; The outage rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit is multiplied by the higher value in block switch operating time and interconnection switch back brake time, and in year interruption duration of the described main current supply circuit that adds up;
A3, if having block switch on described main current supply circuit, but without interconnection switch, adds planned outage rate by the failure rate of each power supply unit of described main current supply circuit, adds up in the comprehensive outage rate of described main current supply circuit; Each power supply unit failure rate of described main current supply circuit is multiplied by fault correction time, and each power supply unit planned outage rate that adds the above main current supply circuit is multiplied by idle time, in year interruption duration of the described main current supply circuit that adds up.
7. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 6, is characterized in that, calculates the outage rate index in the reliability index of described sub-current supply circuit according to following operation rule:
B1, if having fuse in described sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is 0;
B2, if there is circuit breaker in described sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit equals each circuit breaker failure rate on described sub-current supply circuit and is multiplied by (1-P) ksum, wherein, P is that in described sub-current supply circuit, each circuit breaker on average reliably cut-offs rate, k is the number of circuit breaker on described sub-current supply circuit;
B3, if having isolating switch in described sub-current supply circuit, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is each fault isolating switch rate sum of described sub-current supply circuit;
B4, if in described sub-current supply circuit without any equipment to be opened/closed, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is 0.
8. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, described in each, the priority of operation rule is followed successively by calculation step b1, b2, b3 and b4 from high to low.
9. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulate and control method based on obscurity model building as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, calculates the year interruption duration index in the reliability index of described sub-current supply circuit according to following operation rule:
C1, if described sub-current supply circuit without block switch, comprehensive year interruption duration computational methods of described sub-current supply circuit are identical with interruption duration computation rule a1 of comprehensive year of main current supply circuit;
C2, if described sub-current supply circuit has block switch, the comprehensive outage rate of described sub-current supply circuit is multiplied by the block switch operating time of described sub-current supply circuit and the higher value in the power switch back brake time, and in year interruption duration of the described sub-current supply circuit that adds up.
10. the evaluating reliability of distribution network regulator control system based on obscurity model building, is characterized in that, comprising:
Electricity distribution network model maintenance module, for obtaining the characterisitic parameter of power distribution network, the fuzzy electricity distribution network model according to described characterisitic parameter foundation with described power distribution network equivalence;
Fault data MBM, for obtaining the equipment fault historical statistical data of described power distribution network, carries out Distribution Network Equipment fault data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning year failure-rate data;
Planned outage data modeling module, for obtaining the planned outage historical statistical data of described power distribution network, carries out Distribution Network Equipment planned outage data obscurity model building according to described fuzzy electricity distribution network model, asks for Distribution Network Equipment planning yearly plan outage rate data;
Reliability index computing module, for described fuzzy electricity distribution network model is carried out to loop search, obtains each transformer station in described fuzzy electricity distribution network model or the reliability index of each power supply zone, calculates the whole network reliability index of power distribution network;
Regulation and control module, for planning the power supply reliability index optimization regulation and control in year to described power distribution network according to the whole network reliability index of described power distribution network.
CN201110450211.1A 2011-12-29 2011-12-29 Evaluation and control method and system for reliability of electric distribution network based on fuzzy modeling Active CN102437573B (en)

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