CN102262690A - Modeling method of early warning model of mixed failures and early warning model of mixed failures - Google Patents
Modeling method of early warning model of mixed failures and early warning model of mixed failures Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention provides a modeling method of an early warning model of mixed failures and an early warning model of mixed failures. The modeling method provided by the invention comprises the following steps of: generating a function analyzing module on the basis of HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Analysis) or FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis); generating a degeneration analyzing module on the basis of FMEA analyzing results and a theory of stochastic processes; generating an accident analyzing module according to state monitoring data and maintenance action information; generating an action analyzing module according to output results of the function analyzing module and the degeneration analyzing module through combining a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network) theory; taking the output of the accident analyzing module as an inference evidence and utilizing a DBN inference algorithm to process forward and backward inferences in the same time period to generate an evaluating module for outputting factors and consequences of system failures; taking the output results of the evaluating module and the accident analyzing module as the inference evidence and utilizing the DBN inference algorithm to process forward and backward inferences in the different time periods to generate a predicating module for outputting prospective degeneration tendencies of each member of the system. The model provided by the invention can be used for tracking the failure factors of the system and inferring possible failure consequences and probability.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the safety engineering field, relate to a kind of modeling method and mixed fault Early-warning Model of mixed fault Early-warning Model particularly.
Background technology
Along with the continuous development of Condition Monitoring Technology, increasing experts and scholars are devoted to study the detection and the classification of the system failure, and have developed the status monitoring and diagnosis software and hardware system of many maturations.But " all kinds of diseases and ailments are anti-not as one " in order to improve the essential safety of system, must fundamentally avoid the condition of fault generation by fault pre-alarming.Existing method is often paid close attention to the degradation mechanism and the Study on Residual Life of single parts or an independent particle system.Yet, complication system scarcely is to move in the such stable environment in laboratory, but be subjected to various inside and outside stochastic events, variation, human error, machine ages and other uncertain factors mutual, environment between the system all can cause the generation and the evolution of fault coupling, and make the behavior of system have randomness.Though simply it is split as the difficulty that unit has independently reduced problem, can not get optimum solution, do not meet actual project situation yet.Especially when system exists common cause failure (common cause failure), relevant failure or parts to have the situation of multiple failure mode, existing forecast model has been ignored between the system variable and interaction between the malfunction and failure pattern and influence degree, the rationality of reasoning and decision-making is lower, and is easy to generate wrong report or fails to report phenomenon.
Each unit failure pattern self and interactional development and change process are presented as a fault chain of causation in the complication system, and it will be associated by a series of fault modes that initial fault mode causes by cause-effect relationship.The fault coupling of complication system is actually a network based on the fault chain of causation, the fault that one or a few node take place (may be to take place at random, also may be that human factor causes) can cause that other nodes break down, and finally cause the collapse of quite a few node even whole network by the coupled relation between the network node.Wherein, the fault chain of causation is meant: each unit failure pattern self and interactional development and change process are presented as a fault chain of causation in the complication system, and it will be associated by a series of fault modes that initial fault mode causes by cause-effect relationship.
Therefore, the condition for fear of fault produces improves the rationality of fault rootstock sexual factor identification, demands working out a kind of mixed fault Early-warning Model based on the fault chain of causation that is achieved as follows function urgently:
(1) wishing can be before breaking down, and carries out the identification of root danger by the mixed fault Early-warning Model, takes pre-control means to make system remain on specified states;
(2) when early stage Single Point of Faliure takes place, hope can be predicted the development trend that broken down by the mixed fault Early-warning Model and to the influence of other single-point states, help adopting initiatively disengagement failure travel path of fault isolation, prevent the fault diffusion and cause the destruction of other single-point states even the collapse of system.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to, remedy the deficiency of domestic existing complication system fault pre-alarming model, a kind of accurate, reasonable, effective mixed fault Early-warning Model is provided, quantitative modeling and reasoning by the fault chain of causation, break through the required assumed conditions such as component failure independence of classic method, effectively realize fault pre-alarming analyze in to the accurate identification of multi-part, many dangerous matter sources system failure root sexual factor, and to the reasonable prediction of following degradation trend of parts and remaining life thereof.
On the one hand, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of modeling method of mixed fault Early-warning Model, and described method comprises: analyze HAZOP or failure mode and effect analysis FMEA, systematic function analysis module based on dangerous with operability; Based on FMEA analysis result and discrete time Markov theory of random processes, generate the degradation analysis module; According to status monitoring data and maintenance information, generate event analysis module; In conjunction with the dynamic bayesian network theory, generate the behavioural analysis module according to the output result of described functional analysis module and described degradation analysis module; The real-time monitor value of may observe state variable with event analysis module output is the reasoning evidence, utilize the dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm in the same timeslice of described behavioural analysis module, to carry out front and back to reasoning, generate evaluation module, the possible consequence that output system failure factor and fault cause; With the output result of described evaluation module and the real-time monitor value of may observe state variable of described event analysis module output is the reasoning evidence, utilize between the different timeslice of dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm and carry out front and back to reasoning, the generation forecast module, the degradation trend in each parts of output system futures.
On the other hand, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of mixed fault Early-warning Model, comprise: the functional analysis module, be used for determining the dynamic node and the static node of mixed fault Early-warning Model, the implicit state variable of dynamic node correspondence and the state space of implicit state variable, the observational variable of static node correspondence and the state space of observational variable, failure cause related and consequence, and the incidence relation between failure cause and the consequence with each node; The degradation analysis module is used for component failure data and priori according to historical data base, determines the state transitions rule and the failure probability density function of the implicit state variable of each dynamic node correspondence of mixed fault Early-warning Model; Event analysis module, the real time data and the chronic frustration data storage that are used for monitoring are advanced described historical data base, for the reasoning process of evaluation module and prediction module provides the reasoning evidence; The behavioural analysis module is used to set up the network structure and the parameter of mixed fault Early-warning Model, utilizes status monitoring data, fail data in the described historical data base parameter of described mixed fault Early-warning Model is estimated and to be upgraded simultaneously; Evaluation module is used for exporting implicit state, system failure root sexual factor, dangerous reason at different levels, dangerous consequences and the corresponding safety practice of each parts of current system, at least one of turnaround plan through reasoning; Prediction module is used at least one according to each observed parameter of the implicit state output system of described each parts variate-value in future, the parts degradation trend in future, remaining life, predictive maintenance strategy.
The technique scheme that the embodiment of the invention provides, a series of by making up " functional analysis modules ", " degradation analysis module ", " behavioural analysis module ", " event analysis module " also merge it with structure mixed fault Early-warning Model, and the device systems fault chain of causation is carried out the quantification modeling.The mixed fault Early-warning Model that builds can be according to the observational variable value of " event analysis module " real-time storage, at one time in the sheet between (" Spatial Dimension ") and the different timeslice (" time dimension ") carry out front and back to reasoning, realization is to the diagnosis of system failure root sexual factor, prediction, the prediction of system degradation trend and the formulation of preventative maintenance scheme etc. of fault possibility consequence, the essential safety of safeguards system.
Description of drawings
In order to be illustrated more clearly in the embodiment of the invention or technical scheme of the prior art, to do one to the accompanying drawing of required use in embodiment or the description of the Prior Art below introduces simply, apparently, accompanying drawing in describing below only is some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skills, under the prerequisite of not paying creative work, can also obtain other accompanying drawing according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is that the mixed fault Early-warning Model of the embodiment of the invention makes up and application architecture figure;
Fig. 2 is the modeling process flow diagram of the mixing Early-warning Model of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 3 a is the east of a lake, the Qinghai compressor station combustion press group system overall schematic of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 3 b is the axial-flow compressor of the east of a lake, the Qinghai compressor station combustion press group system of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 3 c is the gas-turbine combustion chamber of the east of a lake, the Qinghai compressor station combustion press group system of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 3 d is the gas turbine backup system of the east of a lake, the Qinghai compressor station combustion press group system of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 4 is the surface chart of combustion press group " event analysis module " application example of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 5 is the mixed fault Early-warning Model schematic network structure of the oil system of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 6 is the generation of the embodiment of the invention reliability development trend synoptic diagram in oil system future of degenerating;
Fig. 7 is the degradation trend synoptic diagram that influences lower bearing in the oil system of degenerating of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 8 is the following reliability development trend of an oil system synoptic diagram after the maintenance of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 9 a is the air system degeneration of the embodiment of the invention and implies state variable future trends synoptic diagram;
Fig. 9 b is that the air system of the embodiment of the invention is degenerated and observed parameter variable future trends synoptic diagram;
Figure 10 a is that the air system under the given preventative maintenance scheme of the embodiment of the invention is degenerated and implied state variable future trends synoptic diagram;
Figure 10 b is that the air system under the given preventative maintenance scheme of the embodiment of the invention is degenerated and observed parameter variable future trends synoptic diagram.
Embodiment
For the purpose, technical scheme and the advantage that make the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the invention, technical scheme in the embodiment of the invention is clearly and completely described, obviously, described embodiment is the present invention's part embodiment, rather than whole embodiment.Based on the embodiment among the present invention, those of ordinary skills belong to the scope of protection of the invention not making the every other embodiment that is obtained under the creative work prerequisite.
The embodiment of the invention is a theoretical foundation with the dynamic bayesian network, and a kind of mixed fault Early-warning Model and modeling method thereof are provided, and the fault chain of causation is carried out quantification modeling and reasoning.From many chains of causation, find out the most initial reason that produces failure symptom because of many fruits; And further trouble-shooting travel path, the future development trend that broken down of prediction and to the negative effect of other single-point states, thereby strengthen rationality, the condition of avoiding fault to produce, the basic goal of realization fault pre-alarming to the identification of fault rootstock sexual factor.The embodiment of the invention on the basis of having merged system architecture/hardware, process function, historical fail data and status monitoring data, the inherent evolution process of executive system and parts self and the abstract and modeling of reciprocal process each other.It comprises 6 modeling process, and Fig. 1 is the modeling of mixed fault Early-warning Model and the application architecture synoptic diagram of the embodiment of the invention, and Fig. 2 is the modeling process flow diagram of the mixed fault Early-warning Model of the embodiment of the invention.In conjunction with consulting Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, the specific implementation process comprises the steps:
As shown in Figure 1, one embodiment of the present of invention need P﹠amp in the building process of functional analysis module; ID schemes (technology and instrument process flow diagram, Process ﹠amp; Instrument Diagram) and expertise.It is a kind of ready-made and in a kind of method of petrochemical complex safety analysis field widespread usage that HAZOP analyzes.HAZOP analyzes and adopts standardization " introducer " that system's intermediate variable is set " departing from ", along " departing from " reverse find in system improper " reason ", and along " departing from " forward lookup in system unfavorable " consequence ".Search in the system at the existing safety practice of each important " reason-consequence " antithesis, propose rectification or new safety practice suggestion.Wherein, " reason-consequence " antithesis is meant the reason and the dangerous consequence that causes of initiation potential.In the present embodiment, the production run of apparatus system is the process that makes material generation predetermined physical and chemical change by unit operations and physical-chemical reaction.In order to prevent runaway reaction and industrial accident, these variations (how representing with technological parameter) must be by strict control, can not depart from predetermined scope and form, this class technological parameter be departed from predetermined scope and form is called " departing from " (comprise quantity of state departs from, observed quantity depart from).
FMEA analyzes and to be meant: can be divided into the characteristics of subsystem, equipment and element according to system, by actual needs system be cut apart, analyze the influence of contingent separately fault type and generation thereof then, so that take corresponding countermeasure.
Further, analyze about HAZOP and FMEA, those skilled in the art can be with reference to following document (wherein having the detailed possible dangerous reason and the analytical procedure of consequence): [1] Shao Hui, " system safety engineering ", petroleum engineering publishing house, 2008.5.
Wherein, above-mentionedly analyze and " the functional analysis module " that generate, specifically can be used for: determine the key parameter of mixed fault Early-warning Model, comprise dynamic node and static node in the mixed fault Early-warning Model based on HAZOP and FMEA; And, determine the variable and the parameter space thereof of each node correspondence, for example implicit state variable and the state space thereof of dynamic node correspondence, the observational variable of static node correspondence and state space thereof; And, reach the reciprocal effect relation between each parts and the environment between each parts.Wherein, state space be meant might state set.Parameter space comprises the probability that state space and each state take place.
In the present embodiment, this degradation analysis module, each failure mode quantification ground that can be used for FMEA is analyzed is abstract to be the implicit state variable of the dynamic node correspondence of mixed fault Early-warning Model, and, determine the model parameter such as state transitions rule, priori failure probability of each implicit state variable according to fail data and priori.
Wherein, above-mentioned discrete time markov theory of random processes those skilled in the art can consult following list of references: Zhou Mengqing, " theory of random processes ", Electronic Industry Press, 2009.4.
Particularly, above-mentioned status monitoring data can comprise from spot sensor, PLC (Programmable logic Controller, Programmable Logic Controller) or SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition, data acquisition with monitor control) real-time Monitoring Data and various Action Events record that system obtains, these information are stored into historical data base.Above-mentioned maintenance information can comprise maintenance record or various preventive maintenance schedule.
In the present embodiment, this event analysis module can be advanced historical data base with the data storage that monitors, so that bring in constant renewal in and perfect data basis for the performed parameter estimation procedure of behavioural analysis module described later provides, this process is to ensure accurate, the reliable basis of fault pre-alarming analysis.
Particularly, the concrete processing procedure of step 106 can comprise: the evolution process in time and the reciprocal process between the variable of implicit state variable, the observed parameter variable of the mixed fault Early-warning Model of " functional analysis module " and " degradation analysis module " output, above-mentioned each variable self inherence is merged (concrete fusion process hereinafter has detailed description) constitute " behavioural analysis module "; Utilize the data (for example fail data, historical observation parametric variable value) in the historical data base again, adopt the DBN parameter estimation algorithm that the parameter of " behavioural analysis module " is estimated.
Wherein, above-mentioned DBN parameter estimation algorithm those skilled in the art can consult following list of references: Xiao Qinkun, Gao Song, high twilight, " the dynamic bayesian network reasoning theories of learning and application ", Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2007.
In the present embodiment, " evaluation module " of mixed fault Early-warning Model utilizes the dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm to carry out front and back to reasoning (Forward and backward reasoning algorithm) in the same timeslice of behavior analysis module, the real-time monitor value of may observe state variable with " event analysis module " output is the reasoning evidence, go up the implicit state variable and the corresponding probability of happening of each dynamic node correspondence of derivation mixed fault Early-warning Model from " Spatial Dimension ", thereby to the implicit state of current each parts of terminal output system, the fault rootstock sexual factor, dangerous reasons at different levels, possible dangerous consequences, in safety practice and the turnaround plan at least one.
The real-time monitor value of may observe state variable of the output result of step 110, above commentary valency module and the output of above-mentioned event analysis module is the reasoning evidence, utilize the dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm between different timeslices, to carry out front and back to reasoning, the generation forecast module is with each parts of output system degradation trend in future.
In the present embodiment, the result of " prediction module " combination " evaluation module " output of mixed fault Early-warning Model (as, implicit state variable) and the real-time monitor value of may observe state variable of " event analysis module " output be the reasoning evidence, utilize dynamic bayesian network to carry out time slice continuation (" time dimension "), carry out front and back to reasoning between the different timeslice of the behavioural analysis module of mixed fault Early-warning Model, prediction obtains component degradation until the temporal evolution process that lost efficacy.Thereby to the terminal output system observed parameter variate-value in future, implicit state variable value, the reliability variation tendency in future etc., accurate for formulating, rational preventive maintenance Best Times or gap periods provide foundation.
Wherein, above-mentioned time slice continuation related notion those skilled in the art can consult following list of references: Xiao Qinkun, Gao Song, high twilight, " the dynamic bayesian network reasoning theories of learning and application ", Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2007.
Below embodiment of the invention method shown in Figure 2 is described in further detail.
(1) modeling process of " functional analysis module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model:
" functional analysis module " analyzed based on HAZOP and FMEA, determine the key parameter in the mixed fault Early-warning Model, comprise the dynamic node in the mixed fault Early-warning Model, static node, the variable of each node correspondence and parameter space thereof, and between each parts and and environment between reciprocal effect relation.
The fundamental purpose of " functional analysis module " is that the qualitative cause-effect relationship between the system failure is researched and analysed, and sets up the relational model that influences each other (reciprocal process) between the system unit.Preferably, the embodiment of the invention adopts a kind of two-way function-failure analysis mechanism (dual functioning-malfunctioning reasoning).
(2) modeling process of " degradation analysis module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model:
" degradation analysis module " determines the implicit state variable and the model parameters such as state transitions rule, priori failure probability thereof of dynamic node correspondence in the mixed fault Early-warning Model.
At first from the output of " functional analysis module ", select crucial failure mode to set up degenerative process, the correlativity between the identification degenerative process then.Guan Jian failure mode wherein, referring on the ordinary meaning has the failure mode that has a strong impact on to parts safety.Can be come the degenerative process of system core is carried out modeling by discrete time markov stochastic process (DTMP), specific algorithm be as follows:
A degenerative process { X independently
kCan be by its discrete state space χ
XTransition matrix P with correspondence
XRepresent.For the modeling of relevant (non-independence) degenerative process at random, the embodiment of the invention adopts a kind of short-cut method, will have interactional plurality of processes to integrate with in the single model.For example, with two relevant degenerative process { A
t, { B
tMerge into " macroscopical process " { AB
t, this merging mode is based on DTMP, and just like giving a definition:
1, merging phase space χ
AAnd χ
BObtain state space χ
AB(create " macroscopic view " failure state A
f^B
f, and remove all system's inaccessible states in the set);
2, " macroscopical process " parameter p
Ih, jlBy parameter p
IjAnd p
HlProduct be transformed, promptly merge according to formula (1) and formula (2) state transitions with process A and process B.Wherein, p
IjBe the probability that state i transforms to state j, p
HlBe the probability that state h transforms to state l, p
Ih, jlHas the probability that state j and state l transform to simultaneously for having state i and state h simultaneously.
(3) modeling process of " behavioural analysis module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model:
" behavioural analysis module ", " functional analysis module " and the output of " degradation analysis module " are merged, and adopt the DBN parameter estimation algorithm that the parameter of mixed fault Early-warning Model is quantitatively estimated further, thereby setting up with DBN is the more accurate quantitative mixed fault Early-warning Model of framework, this model can carry out quantitative Analysis and provide the concrete numerical value of estimating and predicting, rather than analyze qualitatively and describe, concrete syncretizing mechanism is as follows:
Based on the dynamic bayesian network theory, each degenerative process that " degradation analysis module " exported is converted to mixed fault Early-warning Model dynamic variable node; With each transport stream property transformation of " functional analysis module " output is mixed fault Early-warning Model static variable node.Simultaneously, with dynamic bayesian network digraph model is framework, according to the cause-effect relationship of " functional analysis module " output, (the father node) is done its direct result node (child node) of an oriented arrow points, until all nodes all are connected on the DBN network from the reason node.Promptly, system architecture information (being described by assembly and transport stream), qualitative cause-effect relationship and dynamic degenerative process are integrated, the system failure chain of causation is carried out quantification modeling based on DBN, generate that the behavioural analysis module thisly comprises dynamically, the network of the oriented line between static node and each node is the structure of mixing Early-warning Model.And the quantitative relationship of line between variable information of each node correspondence (as the implicit state variable of each node and conditional probability, priori failure probability etc.) and the node (as, the transition probability of variable etc. between the joint probability of a group node, the different time fragment) is defined as the parameter of mixing Early-warning Model.These parameters can be estimated by the sample statistics learning method based on a large amount of historical datas.
Wherein, related algorithm those skilled in the art of above-mentioned mixing Early-warning Model parameter learning can consult following list of references: Baum L E, Petrie G S, Weiss N.A maximization technique occurring in the statistical analysis of probabilistic functions of Markov chains.The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 1970,41 (1): 164-171.
(4) modeling process of " event analysis module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model:
The purpose that generates " event analysis module " is, be provided at the latest data of the parameter (implicit state variable and observed parameter variable etc.) that defines in the above-mentioned mixed fault Early-warning Model, promptly the node variable in the mixed fault Early-warning Model is dynamically updated, and provide the reasoning foundation for the fault pre-alarming analysis.Therefore, should " event analysis module " provide following two kinds of information for the mixed fault Early-warning Model:
1. the real-time monitored parametric variable value that provides condition monitoring system to gather, promptly the data value (as force value, flow value etc.) to the observed parameter variable of mixed fault Early-warning Model static node correspondence periodically updates that (the concrete cycle is looked condition monitoring system, decide as the data acquiring frequency of SCADA system), claim " monitoring event analysis submodule ";
2. at the supporting assembly in each process, based on various alternative maintenance schedules (causing the action in the future that mixed fault Early-warning Model node state changes), the update condition and the data updated of the implicit state variable of mixed fault Early-warning Model dynamic node correspondence are provided, claim " maintenance event analysis submodule ".
(5) the early warning analysis process of mixed fault Early-warning Model " evaluation module ":
The function of " evaluation module " is to utilize DBN filtering inference mechanism by the up-to-date evidence that " event analysis module " provides, determine the variate-value of each node in the mixed fault Early-warning Model, especially implicit state variable value, and and then obtain the security control measure and the detection scheme of possible the consequence and the correspondence of the root sexual factor of fault, failure cause at different levels, fault before and after (" Spatial Dimension ") carries out in the same timeslice of the behavioural analysis module of mixed fault Early-warning Model to reasoning.
In the implementation of whole evaluation module, constantly follow the trail of the currency of implicit state variable, promptly known observed parameter variable Y
tValue (being provided by " event analysis module ") uninterruptedly estimates implicit state variable X by following filtering reasoning algorithm
t:
P(X
t|y
1:t)∝P(y
t|X
t，y
1:t-1)P(X
t|y
1:t-1)＝P(y
t|X
t)[∑x
t-1P(X
t|x
t-1)P(x
t-1|y
1:t-1)]?(3)
(6) the early warning analysis process of mixed fault Early-warning Model " prediction module ":
The function of " prediction module " is based on the implicit state variable value of parts that mixed fault Early-warning Model " evaluation module " provides, the real-time monitor value of may observe state variable that " event analysis module " provides, by DBN prediction inference mechanism, (" time dimension ") carries out reasoning between the different timeslice of the behavioural analysis module of mixed fault Early-warning Model, obtain implicit state variable future (the various probability that may values of τ＜t), thus realize the fiduciary level development trend (the implicit state value probability with prediction is an index) in prognoses system or parts futures.
The prediction inference mechanism of " prediction module " carries out the probability that one-step prediction calculates the following energy of implicit state variable value
Or the probability of the following energy of calculating observation parametric variable value
Formula as follows:
Or
α wherein
t(i)=P (X
t=i|y
1:t), representing known implicit state variable y when all values of time period [1, t], observational variable X is the probability of state i in moment t value; P (x
T+1| x
t) during the known arbitrary variable current time state of expression, following next probability of taking place of state constantly.
The output result of " prediction module " can be used for maintenance decision: if the predicted value of to-be is met safety standard and can be considered and can " safety " or " success " finish system's set objective, then do not take any maintenance or detect action.Otherwise must carry out (based on security consideration) maintenance task immediately, or (preventative maintenance) carried out in a plan optimal time.
Therefore, execution by a series of " functional analysis modules ", " degradation analysis module ", " behavioural analysis module ", " event analysis module ", and it is merged the device systems fault chain of causation is carried out the quantification modeling, thereby made up the mixed fault Early-warning Model, this is the modelling phase of mixed fault Early-warning Model.In the fault pre-alarming analysis phase, this model carries out reasoning respectively by " evaluation module " and " prediction module " on " Spatial Dimension " and " time dimension ", realization is to the tracking of system failure root sexual factor, the reasoning of fault possibility consequence, the prediction of system degradation trend, and for the formulation of preventative maintenance scheme provides foundation, thereby essential safety that can safeguards system.
Below by real example the such scheme of the embodiment of the invention is described further.
" puckery-Ning-Lan " gas transmission line east of a lake boosting station rock gas combustion press group system (GTCS) is made up of Suo La god of unusual strength's 130 type gas turbine and graceful turbine RV050/04 type centrifugal compressor.Because it forms complex structure, regulating working conditions is frequent, physical environment is abominable; in order to improve equipment essential safety level; avoid taking place accidents such as disorderly closedown, natural gas leaking; must carry out modeling to the fault chain of causation of combustion press group system; dynamic evaluation, predict its safe condition, and its remaining life is assessed.
Investigation is also gathered status monitoring data, historical maintenance record, running status daily sheet and the dependent failure statistical data etc. (combustion press group system and key part structure are seen shown in accompanying drawing 3a-Fig. 3 d) that fire the press group system, obtain sufficient priori and expertise, provide rational foundation the correction that mixes Early-warning Model parameter and structure about combustion press group system and similar rotating machinery.Wherein, the critical component that illustrates of Fig. 3 d comprises: main oil pump, gas outlet, air motor and draft tube.
According to above-mentioned modeling method and the detailed example described in the embodiment of the invention, set up the mixed fault Early-warning Model at the combustion press group system fault chain of causation, comprise the steps:
The first step is analyzed based on HAZOP and FMEA, generates " functional analysis module ", determines the main failure mode, process variable deviation of combustion press each key subsystem of group system or parts, possible dangerous reason and consequence etc.
Particularly, it is common method in the system safety engineering subject that HAZOP and FMEA analyze, and those skilled in the art can be with reference to following document (wherein having the detailed possible dangerous reason and the analytical procedure of consequence): [1] Shao Hui, " system safety engineering ", petroleum engineering publishing house, 2008.5.
Second step, FMEA analysis result and discrete time markov theory of random processes based on the first step, generate " degradation analysis module ", utilize the existing historical fail data of combustion press group, fault data, equipment operation statistics and on-the-spot expertise, for the failure mode of each subsystem or critical component is set up quantitative degenerative process, and determine its parameter.
The 3rd step under the dynamic bayesian network framework, generated " behavioural analysis module ", and " functional analysis module " merged with " degradation analysis module " gained result, set up the mixed fault Early-warning Model.Wherein with corresponding dynamic node and the correlation parameter that generates the mixed fault Early-warning Model of the degenerative process of " degradation analysis module " each location mode of gained.This correlation parameter comprises the transition probability and the priori failure probability of state space.Corresponding static node and the correlation parameter that generates the mixed fault Early-warning Model of observed parameter variable with " functional analysis module " each unit of gained.Said units is meant the set of subsystem after the system decomposition, parts etc.Simultaneously in the mixed fault Early-warning Model father node and child node set and between line shown the network structure of mixed fault Early-warning Model, as shown in Figure 5, i.e. the reciprocation of state evolution and parameter variation between each unit in the characterization system.In Fig. 5, D5_1: oil pipe degenerative process (OTD); D5_2: oil cooler degenerative process (OCD); D5_3: oily filter element part degenerative process (OFD); D5_4: oil pump degenerative process (OPD); D5_5: lubricating oil heater degenerative process (OHD); S5_1: charge oil pressure; S5_2: oil temperature supplying: S5_3: oil tank liquid level: S5_4: oil filter pressure reduction; S5_5: fuel tank temperature; E1_1: environment temperature.White circle is represented dynamic node among Fig. 5; Gray circles is represented static node; Wherein, K represents the current time unit, K-1 representative last a time quantum constantly.
It is to set up on the basis of existing data (2005-2009 year equipment operation situation, and part equipment maintenance records before in 2005 etc.) that combustion press group is mixed each parameter in the Early-warning Model.But, make the result of mixed fault Early-warning Model meet the demand of current safety management and operation because the continuous variation of system running environment must provide a real-time or regular update mechanism to above-mentioned model parameter.Therefore, combustion press group system has been set up " event analysis module ", its application software interface is seen (software is based on C++Builder6.0 and SQL Server 2005 platforms and develops) shown in Figure 4.Combustion press group " event analysis module " application software is utilized OPC (OLE for Process Control; the OLE that is used for process control) the remote high-speed data acquisition technology is carried out data acquisition and status monitoring; and various real time datas are classified (as start-stop machine data, regulating working conditions data, normal service data, fault state data etc.); store in the safety database relevant in " event analysis module ", be convenient to data retrieval and processing with the monitoring incident." event analysis module " can also regularly store equipment maintenance record in the safety database relevant with maintenance event in " event analysis module " into, is convenient to regularly fail data be carried out statistical study.Along with various valid data are constantly gathered and stored to " event analysis module ", dynamic correction and renewal for parameter in the mixed fault Early-warning Model and network structure provides rational foundation on the one hand, makes model more accurately also can meet the actual conditions of environment, operating mode adjusted; Reasoning process for " evaluation module " and " prediction module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model (seeing for fourth, fifth step) provides soft/hard evidence on the other hand, strengthens fault rootstock sexual factor identification and failure trend prediction result's rationality.
In the 4th step, mixed fault Early-warning Model " evaluation module " is verified system failure root sexual factor identification process.
Carry out real-time online status monitoring to Qinghai Lake eastern station rock gas combustion press group in May, 2008, it is 57 ℃ that certain day records the lubricating oil medial temperature, lubricating oil pressure is 0.195MPa, (the lubricating oil normal temperature is interval for [35 all to depart from range of normal value, 55] ℃, the normal span of lubricating oil pressure is [0.210,0.449] MPa).The dangerous reason that tradition HAZOP analysis report is possible with 10 shown in the indicator gauge 1 even redundant analysis result occurs, and each dangerous reason is regardless of primary and secondary and exports side by side, brought difficulty to security decision.If the model node surpasses 10, then traditional HAZOP analysis result will be very huge, " shot array " situation often occur.Security of system person checks one by one according to tabulation, i.e. wasting manpower and material resources, and the system that may miss again best servicing time, thus system running state is worsened.The fault that the embodiment of the invention provides is mixed Early-warning Model and then be can be good at solving this difficult problem.
Now according to " evaluation module " reasoning algorithm of describing in the embodiment of the invention, each node state probability calculation analytic process is as follows:
(1) the observer nodes deviation is blured quantification as node posterior probability in the mixed fault Early-warning Model.Wherein, about the technological means of fuzzy quantification, those skilled in the art can be with reference to following document: Hu Jinqiu, Zhang Laibin, Liang Wei, imperial court's sunshine. quantitative HAZOP analyzes based on the combustion press group of Fuzzy Data Fusion. the system engineering theory and practice, 2009,29 (8): 153-159.Lubricating oil normal temperature interval is [35,55] ℃ during unit operation, and now recording the lubricating oil medial temperature is 57 ℃, then the posterior probability of observer nodes S72 as calculated { 0,0.1546,0.7939,0.0515}, it is { on the low side to correspond respectively to possible state, normally, higher, superelevation }.In like manner the normal span of lubricating oil pressure is [0.210,0.449] MPa, then the posterior probability of observer nodes S71 as calculated { 0.0593,0.8536,0.0871,0} corresponds respectively to possible state { ultralow, on the low side, normal, higher }.Wherein, posterior probability is to handle according to fuzzy quantification to calculate, for example, each possible state (on the low side, higher, normal etc.) corresponding fuzzy membership function separately, then actual observed value is brought into, calculated the fuzzy membership of each state, as the posterior probability of each state.Unusual observed reading all occurs in the oil system, and the network structure of its mixed fault Early-warning Model as shown in Figure 5.With the corresponding dynamic node D5_1 of system component, D5_2, D5_3, D5_4, D5_5 are the fiduciary level estimated value that the probability of normal condition can be used as these parts, and through " evaluation module " reasoning, it is respectively 0.3140,0.6583,0.7244,0.5395 and 0.9016.Wherein to be positioned at the probable value of normal condition minimum for D5_1 and D5_4 node, shows that the reliability of lube pipe and oil pump is relatively poor, has potential safety hazard, needs to check or repair.
Table 1: " evaluation module " The reasoning results in the mixed fault Early-warning Model-possible dangerous reason and safety practice
(2) before and after " Spatial Dimension ", estimate possible dangerous reason and the consequence (fault rootstock sexual factor) that oil system exists by " evaluation module " of mixed fault Early-warning Model, see Table 1 with shown in the table 2 to reasoning.Its demonstration has the dangerous former of maximum possibility occurrence (0.8035) because " the meter in aperture is less than normal "; Secondly be " the outlet water temperature is higher ", possibility is 0.7142; Dangerous consequences with maximum possibility occurrence (0.9132) for " the pressure oil film is difficult to keep, in addition cause that bearing shell burns out, accidents such as sealing wear and impeller destruction ".The device security maintainer presses possibility occurrence maintenance and inspection successively from big to small according to dangerous reason table of system and corresponding suggestion safety practice.The actual inspection result conforms to " evaluation model " The reasoning results, the potential safety hazard that the operation of discovery system is potential.Simultaneously formulate the security control measure, associated arguments such as the temperature of bearing shell, sealing, displacement are carried out close supervision according to the dangerous consequences of maximum likelihood.The on-site maintenance personnel fall into the normal value interval by increasing cooling water inflow envoy point observation value, have avoided the continuation of fault to worsen; And at the tissue two days later of the observed reading that notes abnormalities combustion press group clean-out operation, emphasis cleans the throttle orifice plate, and maintenance lubricating system oil pump, oil pipe, cleans oil filter.
Table 2: the The reasoning results of mixed fault Early-warning Model " evaluation module "-possible dangerous consequences
Wait safety evaluation, method for diagnosing faults analysis to compare with the single HAZOP analysis of tradition, the mixed fault Early-warning Model that the embodiment of the invention provides helps finding fast and accurately the fault rootstock sexual factor and formulates safety practice, the limitation that has solved traditional HAZOP qualitative analysis can not exported huge and redundant The reasoning results with uncertain.The mixed fault Early-warning Model has strengthened and carried out the accuracy of identification and the rationality of decision-making when there are a plurality of node deviations (being a plurality of dangerous matter sources) in system simultaneously.The on-site maintenance personnel only need to check successively according to failure cause possibility occurrence size, often check that 2-3 factor gets final product the fault location root, thereby initiatively take in advance maintenance measures with these controlling factors of bringing out fault in a rational strength or level, to prevent to bring out the further trouble or failure of parts.
In the 5th step, mixed fault Early-warning Model " prediction module " is to system unit degradation trend and the checking of remaining life forecasting process.
According to above-mentioned " prediction module " reasoning algorithm in the embodiment of the invention, go up the reasoning prediction oil system reliability development trend in future from current degenerate state at " time dimension ", as shown in Figure 6.As seen it will be more serious that D5_1 (oil pipe) that current fiduciary level is minimum and D5_4 (oil pump) use its degree of degeneration of growth at age with parts, and the fiduciary level of its prediction after 30 days will be lower than 0.5.If with fiduciary level 50% threshold value commonly used on the engineering is that the abandoned tender standard is declared in equipment failure, then its remaining life is predicted as 30 days.Simultaneously, though the current fiduciary level of D5_3 (oil strainer) is positioned at security level, its deterioration velocity is very high, if untimely cleaning or replacing will influence the normal operation of miscellaneous part.Consider the relevant failure problem, the oil system of degeneration to the influence of turbine system centre bearer as shown in Figure 7.It shows at lubricating oil temperature higher, and under the situation that lubrication pressure is on the low side, (D5_1:GT 1 for bearing
#2
#3
#Bearing; The D5_2:GT thrust bearing) degradation trend (solid line D5_1 and D5_2 among Fig. 7) is more serious than normal degradation trend (corresponding respectively to dotted line D5_1 ' and D5_2 ' among Fig. 7), and promptly the degenerate state of oil system will shorten the serviceable life of bearing arrangement.
The evaluation that provides according to the mixed fault Early-warning Model of the embodiment of the invention with predict the outcome, formulate maintenance program, and maintenance operation quantitatively turned to the alternative maintenance schedule in " event analysis module ", and the implicit state of the dynamic node correspondence in the mixed fault Early-warning Model exerted an influence, detailed process is as follows:
(1) renewal of oil pipeline, and this operation is considered as keeping in repair fully, the state that then keeps in repair posterior nodal point D5_1 is updated to [10 0 0];
(2) clean oil filter, and this operation is considered as incomplete maintenance, the state that then keeps in repair posterior nodal point D5_3 is updated to [0.9 0.10];
(3) keep in repair oil pump, and this operation is considered as incomplete maintenance, the state that then keeps in repair posterior nodal point D5_4 is updated to [0.850.15 0].
Fig. 8 has provided after " event analysis module " revised the mixed fault Early-warning Model, promptly predicts the development trend of the following oil system fiduciary level of reasoning from keeping in repair the state that upgrades the back.As seen in 60 days of future, each parts serviceability is good, and fiduciary level substantially all keeps (being considered as more than 0.5 and can accepting according to the engineering experience fiduciary level, and be in comparatively safe state) more than 0.5.Because the degradation mechanism of oil strainer self and the effect of external environment condition, the deterioration velocity of D5_3 node corresponding components (oil strainer) is compared with miscellaneous part comparatively fast, therefore maintenance (be generally and clean or the change) cycle of oil strainer can be formulated and is every 60-90 days, thereby guarantee the operate as normal of system's miscellaneous part.
The 6th step, the formulation of preventative maintenance strategy.
The evaluation of mixed fault Early-warning Model can be used as the input of maintenance decision link with predicting the outcome: when system's (parts) reliability is lower than a certain setting value (or standard), to in " event analysis module ", trigger corresponding maintenance action, thereby the relevant dynamic node state of mixed fault Early-warning Model will be upgraded.With combustion press group air system is example, suppose wherein two parts (D1_1: air strainer and D1_2: ventilating system) all be in brand-new state, in the system degradation trend following in 300 days shown in Fig. 9 a.When t=168 (my god) time, the fiduciary level of air strainer (D1_1) drops to 0.5 (that is, the air strainer remaining life is predicted as 168 days), and ventilating system (D1_2) work is good, does not have obvious degradation trend.Analyze the observer nodes (S1_1 of representative system operation conditions, S1_2, S1_3, S1_4) (wherein S1_1 is that inlet filter pressure reduction, S1_2 are that tank pressure, S1_3 are that spin manifold temperature, S1_4 are to development trend: the gas turbine inlet air temperature), shown in Fig. 9 b, S1_1 (inlet filter pressure reduction) will depart from normal value gradually, and will be to its miscellaneous part that is associated have a negative impact (as compressor system, combustion system etc.).
In this case, the maximum preventative maintenance cycle of air strainer can be set at 168 (my god) (corresponding to 50% safety reliability standard).If guarantee sufficient security of system surplus, maintenance cycle can be set at 60-90 (my god) (when fiduciary level is lower than 0.7).Figure 10 a has shown that the air system under 60 days maintenance cycle conditions degenerates and the operating index development trend.Wherein maintenance action is assumed to the cleaning to air strainer, and be considered as incomplete maintenance (generally because the degeneration of component materials and have certain attrition and attack, parts can't reach brand-new state after cleaning), then maintenance back air strainer D1_1 unit status is updated to [0.9 0.10].
Shown in Figure 10 b, in the presence of maintenance schedule, model prediction goes out the fiduciary level of air entire system all more than 0.7, and the probability that observer nodes is in normal condition also is more than 0.7, and it shows that the formulation of this maintenance schedule makes air system can keep good safe work state for a long time.Simultaneously, though predicting the outcome, this has also shown the regular preventative maintenance of having considered air system, but still there is certain degradation trend in observational variable S1_2, its reason is that S1_2 is subjected to the influence of air strainer and ventilating system simultaneously, and when span was longer at that time, ventilating system also exists to degenerate slowly and influence node S1_2 made it depart from normal value gradually.
Present embodiment is by the rig-site utilization example to combustion press group system, set forth the foundation of mixed fault Early-warning Model of the present invention and definite overall process of model parameter, and given sufficient checking to correctness, validity and the rationality of model early warning analysis according to the collection in worksite data.
The beneficial effect of the embodiment of the invention is:
1, in order to strengthen the rationality of fault rootstock sexual factor identification, the mixed fault Early-warning Model in the embodiment of the invention has following outstanding characteristics when handling complication system state evolution uncertain problem:
(1) can handle uncertain and probabilistic event of failure;
(2) can be used in study fault cause-effect relationship;
(3) be a kind of (expert) priori, measured data and physical mechanism to be carried out comprehensive preferable expression pattern;
(4) can handle the data set of imperfect information (or partial data is lost);
(5) dirigibility is better, can continue the performance with expertise and data improved model, and model structure and parameter have clear and definite implication.
2, pass through the quantitative modeling and the reasoning of the fault chain of causation, the required assumed conditions such as component failure independence of classic method have been broken through, effectively realized fault pre-alarming analyze in to the accurate identification of multi-part, many dangerous matter sources system failure root sexual factor, and in the fault pre-alarming control to the reasonable prediction of remaining life:
(1) " functional analysis module " set up the relational model that influences each other (reciprocal process) between the system unit and between the fault by functional analysis and failure analysis in the mixed fault Early-warning Model modeling method of the present invention, how to have solved the causal difficult problem of qualitative examination device systems fault.
(2) " degradation analysis module " by to the degeneration physical mechanism of influential system supporting assembly carry out statistical modeling, solved a difficult problem how to represent fault chain of causation node in the fault pre-alarming model.
(3) " behavioural analysis module " carries out system's " functional analysis module " and " degradation analysis module " gained result comprehensively, is that the digraph of the system failure chain of causation is expressed with the dynamic bayesian network, how to have solved the difficult problem of the quantification structure fault chain of causation.
(4) " event analysis module " is by real-time follow-up monitoring incident and maintenance event, proposed a kind of mixed fault Early-warning Model (structure and parameter) dynamically to be revised and update mechanism, solved because the adjusting of the variation of external environment condition, operating mode operation and maintenance activity causes the unconformable difficult problem of Early-warning Model.
(5) evidence that provides by " event analysis module " of " evaluation module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model, utilize DBN filtering inference mechanism, draw the probability of the implicit state of each dynamic node correspondence the mixed fault Early-warning Model from " Spatial Dimension " reasoning, solved how based on the root sexual factor of fault chain of causation reasoning identification of defective, the possible consequence and the corresponding pre-control means difficult problem of fault, the condition of having avoided fault to produce.
(6) " prediction module " in the mixed fault Early-warning Model be by DBN prediction inference mechanism, from the degeneration evolution process in " time dimension " prognoses system or parts futures, how to have solved the development trend difficult problem based on fault chain of causation reasoning prediction fault.
The above; only for the preferable embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and anyly is familiar with those skilled in the art in the technical scope that the present invention discloses; the variation that can expect easily or replacement all should be encompassed within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection domain of claim.
Claims (8)
1. the modeling method of a mixed fault Early-warning Model is characterized in that, described method comprises:
Analyze HAZOP or failure mode and effect analysis FMEA, systematic function analysis module based on dangerous with operability;
Based on analysis result and the discrete time Markov theory of random processes of FMEA, generate the degradation analysis module;
According to status monitoring data and maintenance information, generate event analysis module;
According to the output result of described functional analysis module and described degradation analysis module,, generate the behavioural analysis module in conjunction with the dynamic bayesian network theory;
The real-time monitor value of may observe state variable with described event analysis module output is the reasoning evidence, utilize the dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm in the same timeslice of described behavioural analysis module, to carry out front and back to reasoning, generate evaluation module, with the possible consequence of output system failure factor and fault initiation;
With the output result of described evaluation module and the real-time monitor value of may observe state variable of described event analysis module output is the reasoning evidence, that utilizes the described behavioural analysis module of dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm carries out front and back to reasoning between different timeslices, the generation forecast module is with each parts of output system degradation trend in future.
2. method according to claim 1 is characterized in that, described analysis result and discrete time Markov theory of random processes based on FMEA generate the degradation analysis module and comprise:
From the output of described functional analysis module, select crucial degeneration/failure mode to set up degenerative process;
Correlativity and interaction between the described degenerative process of identification, wherein said interaction comprise between the different degenerative processes of same parts and the interaction between the degenerative process of different parts.
3. method according to claim 2 is characterized in that, selects crucial degeneration/failure mode to set up degenerative process from the output of described functional analysis module and comprises:
From the output of described functional analysis module, select crucial degeneration/failure mode, and utilize discrete time markov stochastic process DTMP to set up degenerative process.
4. method according to claim 1 is characterized in that, according to the output result of functional analysis module and degradation analysis module, in conjunction with the dynamic bayesian network theory, generates the behavioural analysis module and comprises:
Based on dynamic bayesian network, each degenerative process in the described degradation analysis module is converted to the dynamic variable node of mixed fault Early-warning Model;
With the static variable node that is the mixed fault Early-warning Model of each may observe Parameters Transformation in the described functional analysis module;
Based on dynamic bayesian network, the cause-effect relationship according between the variable of described functional analysis module output connects described dynamic variable node, described static variable node, forms the fault chain of causation.
5. method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described real-time monitor value of observable variable with event analysis module output is the reasoning evidence, utilize the dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm in the same timeslice of described behavioural analysis module, to carry out front and back, form evaluation module and comprise to reasoning:
According to the reasoning evidence that described event analysis module provides, utilize the estimation inference mechanism of dynamic bayesian network, determine the implicit state probability of each dynamic node variable in the mixed fault Early-warning Model;
Obtain the factor of fault, the consequence and the corresponding security control measure of fault to reasoning before and after in the same timeslice of described behavioural analysis module, carrying out.
6. method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described real-time monitor value of may observe state variable with evaluation module output result and event analysis module output is the reasoning evidence, utilize the dynamic bayesian network reasoning algorithm between the different timeslice of described behavioural analysis module, to carry out front and back, form prediction module and comprise to reasoning:
The reasoning evidence that provides according to described event analysis module, and based on the current implicit state probability of dynamic node variable of evaluation module output, utilize dynamic bayesian network prediction inference mechanism, determine the implicit probability distribution over states on future a series of time points of each dynamic node variable in the described fault pre-alarming model;
To reasoning, obtain each parts degradation trend in future before and after between the different time sheet of described behavioural analysis module, carrying out,, further determine the remaining life of parts by setting failure threshold.
7. a mixed fault Early-warning Model is characterized in that, comprising:
The functional analysis module, be used for determining the dynamic node and the static node of mixed fault Early-warning Model, the implicit state variable of dynamic node correspondence and the state space of implicit state variable, the observational variable of static node correspondence and the state space of observational variable, failure cause related and consequence, and the incidence relation between failure cause and the consequence with each node;
The degradation analysis module is used for component failure data and priori according to historical data base, determines the state transitions rule and the failure probability density function of the implicit state variable of each dynamic node correspondence of mixed fault Early-warning Model;
Event analysis module, the real time data and the chronic frustration data storage that are used for monitoring are advanced described historical data base, for the reasoning process of evaluation module and prediction module provides the reasoning evidence;
The behavioural analysis module is used to set up the network structure and the parameter of mixed fault Early-warning Model, utilizes status monitoring data, fail data in the described historical data base parameter of described mixed fault Early-warning Model is estimated and to be upgraded simultaneously;
Evaluation module is used for exporting implicit state, system failure root sexual factor, dangerous reason at different levels, dangerous consequences and the corresponding safety practice of each parts of current system, at least one of turnaround plan through reasoning;
Prediction module is used at least one according to each observed parameter of the implicit state output system of described each parts variate-value in future, the parts degradation trend in future, remaining life, predictive maintenance strategy.
8. mixed fault Early-warning Model according to claim 7 is characterized in that, described event analysis module comprises:
Monitoring event analysis submodule is used for the data value of the observed parameter variable of mixed fault Early-warning Model static node correspondence is periodically updated;
Maintenance event is analyzed submodule, is used for according to alternative maintenance schedule, and the update condition and the data updated of the implicit state variable of mixed fault Early-warning Model dynamic node correspondence is provided.
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| CN104696207A (en) * | 2013-12-04 | 2015-06-10 | 铜陵市永生机电制造有限责任公司 | Method for identifying dangerousness of compressor unit |
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